Jay Clarke #241United Kingdom22 – 1Felix Gill #214United Kingdom1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15

The read

Clarke's stronger recent clay form and better return numbers give him the edge in this Bo3 clay quarter-final.

• Jay Clarke last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%), but on clay 6-4 (60%) with 52.4% games won.
• Felix Gill last 15 overall record 6-9 (40%), clay sample only 3 matches (2-1) with 56.4% games won.
• Clarke has won 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay, including wins over higher-ranked opponents (Varillas, Martinez Portero).
• Gill lost to Sebastian Ofner (rank 124) in straight sets on clay in his most recent clay match before this tournament.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting over 21.5 total games.

• Clarke's last 15 matches average 22.6 games per match (398 games / 15 matches).
• Gill's last 15 matches average 24.1 games per match (361 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have played several three-set matches recently, indicating competitive contests.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Gill is likely to keep the match competitive, making +3.5 games a reasonable handicap.

• Clarke's average games won per match is 13.6, Gill's is 11.7.
• Gill has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents, losing by narrow margins.
• Clarke's recent wins have often been by 3-4 games, not blowouts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive, with a good chance of going over 9.5 games.

• Clarke's first sets in recent matches have averaged around 9.8 games.
• Gill's first sets in recent matches have averaged around 9.5 games.
• Both players have played several first sets with 10 or more games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The match is likely to be closely contested, with a decent chance of going to a deciding set.

• Clarke has played three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches.
• Gill has played three sets in 5 of his last 15 matches.
• Both players have similar deciding set win rates, suggesting competitive matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making under 5.5 total double faults likely.

• Clarke averages 2.9 double faults per match overall, 2.4 on clay.
• Gill averages 1.7 double faults per match overall, 2.0 on clay.
• Combined average double faults per match is around 4.6 overall, 4.4 on clay.