ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Jay Clarke #241United Kingdom2Petr Brunclik #331Czechia0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Wed 16 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJay Clarke · 90 places

Jay Clarke

United Kingdom

The targeted search did not surface reliable public confirmation of his career-high ranking date or preferred surface. Use the structured form and match-stat sections for primary current context.

Current ranking: #241
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Petr Brunclik

Czechia

Structured match data lists him at No. 331, left-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 188 cm. No reliable current public source established additional profile or availability context.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Jay Clarke holds a clear edge over Petr Brunclik due to better clay form, a 2024 H2H win, and higher ranking.

Back Clarke on the moneyline at 1.80 for value, and consider over 21.5 total games in what should be a competitive match.

Context

Clarke, 27, is ranked 242 and has a career clay win percentage above 50%. Brunclik, 20, is ranked 366 and has struggled on clay this season.
Clarke's recent clay results include wins over Pedro Martinez Portero and Duje Ajdukovic, while Brunclik has lost to lower-ranked opponents like Sebastian Sorger and Daniel Masur. This suggests Clarke is better equipped to handle the surface in this matchup, though Brunclik's left-handed serve could still pose challenges.
- Clarke's last 15 clay matches: 5 wins, 4 losses (55.6% win rate).
- Brunclik's last 15 clay matches: 6 wins, 9 losses (40% win rate).
- Clarke beat Pedro Martinez Portero (ranked 148) and Duje Ajdukovic (324) in September.
- Brunclik lost to Sebastian Sorger (358) and Daniel Masur (363) in August.
The two players met once before, in a Challenger event on clay.
Clarke dominated that match, winning the first set 6-0 and converting 45% of break points. Brunclik's serve was less effective, winning only 47% of first-serve points. While that was over two years ago, it gives Clarke a psychological edge and a tactical blueprint.
- H2H: Clarke won 6-0 6-4 on clay in March 2024.
- Clarke won 57% of return points in that match.
- Brunclik won only 47% of first-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Clarke has better recent clay form, a direct H2H win, and higher ranking, giving him a clear edge.
- Jay Clarke last 15 overall record 7-8, but on clay 5-4 with 55.6% win rate
- Petr Brunclik last 15 overall record 6-9, all on clay, 40% win rate
- H2H: Clarke beat Brunclik 6-0 6-4 on clay in 2024
- Clarke ranking 242 vs Brunclik 366
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players capable of extending sets suggests a higher total games count.
- Clarke last 15 clay matches average 140.2 minutes, 51.1% games won
- Brunclik last 15 clay matches average 101.9 minutes, 47.8% games won
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets recently, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Clarke recent clay matches often go to 10+ games in first set
- Brunclik recent first sets include tiebreaks and 7-5 scores
- H2H first set was 6-0 but that was an outlier
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's edge in clay form and H2H suggests he can cover a small game handicap.
- Clarke has higher games won percentage on clay (51.1% vs 47.8%)
- Clarke won H2H by 6 games
- Clarke's recent wins include comfortable scorelines
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJay Clarke -2.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's strong first-set record and H2H dominance support him taking the opener.
- Clarke first set win conversion career 84%
- Brunclik first set win conversion career 90% but recent form weaker
- Clarke won first set in H2H 6-0
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and recent three-set frequency support a deciding set.
- Clarke last 15: 9 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Brunclik last 15: 6 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates on clay, making over 5.5 likely.
- Clarke averages 2.6 double faults per match on clay
- Brunclik averages 3.9 double faults per match on clay
- Combined average is 6.5 double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunclik's serve is a weapon on clay, and combined ace potential makes over 7.5 plausible.
- Clarke averages 2.0 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Brunclik averages 4.7 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Combined average is 6.7, but Brunclik's higher ace rate could push total over
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets are likely given similar levels, and both players have average tiebreak records.
- Clarke tiebreak win percentage career 51%
- Brunclik tiebreak win percentage career 53%
- Brunclik's recent matches include multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Jay Clarke has been unreliable when projected to win

Jay Clarke has fulfilled 1 of 4 win predictions (25%). His missed predictions averaged 67.3% estimated probability, higher than his matched prediction at 55%, suggesting losses even when favored. All three misses were losses, with no draws or wins.

Recent evidence for Jay Clarke4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#239Jay Clarke1-2#723Louis Wessels

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·78%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#239Jay Clarke1-2#723Louis Wessels

Jay Clarke to win

78%probability

Louis Wessels won

Missed

20 May·ATP Roland Garros

#382Thomas Faurel2-0#199Jay Clarke

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·62%

Missed

20 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#382Thomas Faurel2-0#199Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke to win

62%probability

Thomas Faurel won

Missed

14 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#369Dali Blanch2-1#207Jay Clarke

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·62%

Missed

14 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#369Dali Blanch2-1#207Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke to win

62%probability

Dali Blanch won

Missed

12 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#207Jay Clarke2-0#140Moez Echargui

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·55%

Matched

12 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#207Jay Clarke2-0#140Moez Echargui

Jay Clarke to win

55%probability

Jay Clarke won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-0 6-4Jay Clarke#242vPetr Brunclik#366Mar 7, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Jay Clarke

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-4#426Jonas Forejtek

6-7(4) 7-5 6-1#234Juan Pablo Varillas

2-6 6-3 6-2#324Duje Ajdukovic

7-5 3-6 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-4#373Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#157Rei Sakamoto

6-3 4-6 6-4#191Clement Chidekh

1-6 6-4 6-4#178Jerome Kym

4-6 6-3 4-0 ret.#490Louis Wessels

6-4 4-6 6-4#875Stijn Paardekooper

7-5 6-3—Mac Visser

2-6 7-6(5) 6-4#146Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 7-6(5)#106Christopher O'Connell

7-6(3) 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

6-4 5-7 6-2#247August Holmgren

Petr Brunclik

6W 9L

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#319Filippo Romano

4-6 6-3 6-3#238Alejandro Moro Canas

7-6(3) 6-1#358Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#363Daniel Masur

7-5 6-1#186Jan Kumstat

7-5 6-3#786Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

6-4 6-4#564Lorenzo Carboni

6-4 6-4#236Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-4#852William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6-4 1-0 ret.#298Florian Broska

6-4 5-4#236Sumit Nagal

3-6 6-3 6-2#188Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 7-6(5)#379Andrej Martin

7-6(2) 6-2#258Abedallah Shelbayh

1-6 7-6(3) 6-2#70Jaime Faria

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJay ClarkeClarke

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Petr BrunclikBrunclikPB

Jay Clarke carries the stronger recent form — Petr Brunclik's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.4%+2.3pp60.7%

1st Serve Won67.6%+0.8pp68.4%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+1.6pp49.6%

Aces / Match3.5+1.24.7

Double Faults / Match3.00.9 fewer3.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.3%—37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.8%+12.1pp34.7%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+9.5pp51.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.8%—49.2%

Serve · 2–3

58.4%1st Serve In+2.3pp60.7%

67.6%1st Serve Won+0.8pp68.4%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp49.6%

3.5Aces / Match+1.24.7

3.0Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer3.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.3%Return Pts Won—37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.8%Break Pts Converted+12.1pp34.7%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+9.5pp51.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.8%Total Pts Won—49.2%