ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Gerard Campana Lee #585South Korea0Felix Gill #214United Kingdom2

Sets 0-6 · 3-6Wed 16 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Gill · 371 places

Gerard Campana Lee

South Korea

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 318 on June 24, 2024. His professional schedule and results are predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #585
Peak ranking: #318 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Felix Gill

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 216 on 13 July 2026. He lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #214
Peak ranking: #216 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Campana Lee's superior recent clay form and return numbers make him a strong underdog pick against Gill.

Expect a competitive match with potential for three sets and over 21.5 total games. Gill +3.5 games is a solid handicap play.

Context

Campana Lee, ranked 526, is a clay-court specialist with 126 career wins on the surface. Gill, ranked 213, has a stronger overall career record but has been inconsistent recently.
Campana Lee's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches, all on clay, contrasts sharply with Gill's 33.3% overall win rate in the same window. Gill's only two clay matches in that period produced a 50% win rate, but his overall return points won (33.4%) and break point conversion (32.1%) are well below Campana Lee's 43.5% and 50.4%. This suggests Campana Lee is better positioned to control rallies and convert chances on this surface.
- Campana Lee last 15: 11-4 record, all on clay, with 55.3% games won.
- Gill last 15: 5-10 record, with only 2 clay matches (1-1).
- Campana Lee return points won: 43.5% vs Gill 33.4%.
- Campana Lee break point conversion: 50.4% vs Gill 32.1%.
Gill, a left-hander, has been managing a busy schedule across surfaces this season.
His retirement against Jack Pinnington Jones on August 13 is the only retirement in his recent log, and he returned to play two clay matches in September, winning one and losing one. The limited clay sample and the retirement suggest some uncertainty about his physical readiness, but he has completed both recent matches without further issues.
- August 13: retired at 2-6 0-2 against Jack Pinnington Jones (hard court).
- Since then: played two clay matches, won one (vs Mika Petkovic) and lost one (vs Sebastian Ofner).
- No further retirements or withdrawals in the last 30 days.
Campana Lee has played three consecutive days in Biella, including a three-set win over Carlos Taberner on 15 September.
Gill had a rest day after his opening win on 14 September, so Campana Lee may enter this match with more accumulated fatigue. However, his recent clay form suggests he can still compete effectively.
- Campana Lee completed qualifying before defeating Carlos Taberner 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-4 on 15 September.
- Gill defeated Mika Petkovic 7-6(7), 6-3 in his first Biella match on 14 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/BucharestTennisDataHub — Campana Lee vs Bosiotennisdatahub.com · 13 Sep 2026SportyTrader — Petkovic vs Gillwww.sportytrader.com · 14 Sep 2026AiScore — Campana Lee vs Tabernerwww.aiscore.com · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.63
The read
Campana Lee's dominant recent clay form and superior return numbers outweigh Gill's ranking edge, making him the likely winner.
- Campana Lee last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Gill 5-10 (33.3%)
- Campana Lee last 15 clay record 11-4, Gill clay sample only 1-1 in 2 matches
- Campana Lee last 15 return points won 43.5%, Gill 33.4%
- Campana Lee ranking 526 vs Gill 213, but recent form strongly favors Campana Lee
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a total above 21.5 games.
- Campana Lee last 15 average 22.2 games per match, Gill 25.1
- Campana Lee last 15 games won 55.3%, Gill 46.8%
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gill's ranking and competitive recent performances make him likely to stay within 3.5 games of Campana Lee.
- Campana Lee last 15 average games won 12.3, Gill 11.7
- Gill's ranking 213 vs Campana Lee 526 suggests closer match than form indicates
- Gill has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFelix Gill +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Campana Lee last 15 first set average 9.8 games, Gill 10.1
- Gill's last match first set went to tiebreak
- Campana Lee has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Campana Lee's strong recent starts and high first-set conversion rate give him the edge in the opening set.
- Campana Lee first set win conversion career 81%, Gill 89%
- Campana Lee last 15 first serve points won 69.1%, Gill 70.8%
- Campana Lee has won first set in 8 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' low double fault rates suggest a combined total under 3.5 is likely.
- Campana Lee last 15 double faults per match 1.7, Gill 1.5
- Combined average double faults per match 3.2
- Both players have low double fault rates on clay
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gill's higher ace rate and Campana Lee's moderate ace output support a combined total above 6.5.
- Campana Lee last 15 aces per match 2.6, Gill 4.5
- Combined average aces per match 7.1
- Gill's clay sample shows 6 aces per match in 2 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak history make a tiebreak likely.
- Campana Lee tiebreak win rate 52%, Gill 59%
- Campana Lee has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches, Gill 5
- Both players have been involved in close sets recently
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Gerard Campana Lee

11W 4L

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#418Carlos Taberner 6-2 7-5#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 6-3 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

6-1 7-5#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#426Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-3#564Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 7-5#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-4—Valentin Basel

3-6 6-2 6-1—Jiri Cizek

7-6(2) 6-3#506Alex Marti Pujolras

5-7 7-5 6-2#650Theo Papamalamis

6-3 6-3#685Franco Ribero

6-1 6-1#359Gabriele Piraino

5-7 7-5 6-1#405Samuele Pieri

6-0 6-2#898Pietro Marino

Felix Gill

5W 10L

7-6(7) 6-3#449Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-2#124Sebastian Ofner

7-6(3) 6-2#201Francesco Passaro

6-2 2-0 ret.#189Jack Pinnington Jones

7-5 5-7 6-2#202Colton Smith

6-4 4-6 6-4#156Borna Gojo

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#219Max Basing

6-1 6-3#491Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4—William Jansen

6-3 6-3 7-5#14Rafael Jodar

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#74Jan Choinski

6-3 7-6(7)#99Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#108Otto Virtanen

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-2#101Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 4-6 6-1#309Filippo Romano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GLGerard Campana LeeLee

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Felix GillGillFG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In58.4%+5.8pp64.2%

1st Serve Won69.1%+1.7pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won48.6%—49.1%

Aces / Match2.6+1.94.5

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.5%+10.1pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted50.4%+18.3pp32.1%

Break Pts Saved60.6%—60.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+3.9pp48.2%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

58.4%1st Serve In+5.8pp64.2%

69.1%1st Serve Won+1.7pp70.8%

48.6%2nd Serve Won—49.1%

2.6Aces / Match+1.94.5

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.5

Return · 1–0

43.5%Return Pts Won+10.1pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

50.4%Break Pts Converted+18.3pp32.1%

60.6%Break Pts Saved—60.4%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+3.9pp48.2%