ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Jay Clarke #241United Kingdom2Jonas Forejtek #372Czechia1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Mon 14 Sept 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJay Clarke · 131 places

Jay Clarke

United Kingdom

The targeted search did not surface reliable public confirmation of his career-high ranking date or preferred surface. Use the structured form and match-stat sections for primary current context.

Current ranking: #241
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jonas Forejtek

Czechia

Czech player born 10 March 2001, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 217 achieved in August 2022. Official ITF data lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #372
Peak ranking: #217 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Jay Clarke holds a slight edge over Jonas Forejtek based on stronger recent clay form and better quality wins, though his inconsistency is a concern.

The match is likely to be competitive, with a high probability of going over 21.5 total games and 2.5 sets. Betting value lies in the totals markets rather than the match winner, where Clarke's odds of 1.60 offer no edge.

Context

Clarke, 27, is a British right-hander ranked 242 and has spent most of his career on clay.
On clay over his last eight matches he is 4-4, with a win over Pedro Martinez Portero (ranked 148) and a loss to Juan Pablo Varillas (234). His serve numbers are modest, but he has saved 61% of break points, which can keep him in longer rallies.
- Clarke's last 8 clay matches: 4 wins, 4 losses.
- Beat Pedro Martinez Portero (ranked 148) in three sets on 2026-09-03.
- Saved 61.3% of break points in those 8 clay matches.
Forejtek, 25, is a Czech right-hander ranked 389 and has played almost exclusively on clay this season.
His last 15 matches are all on clay, with a 6-9 record. He has lost to Raul Brancaccio (224), Gerard Campana Lee (541), and Dusan Lajovic (167) in recent weeks, though he did beat Duje Ajdukovic 6-0 6-1 in May.
- Forejtek's last 15 clay matches: 6 wins, 9 losses.
- Lost to Raul Brancaccio (224) on 2026-09-08.
- Lost to Gerard Campana Lee (541) on 2026-09-07.
Clarke's first-serve percentage is 58.8% on clay in that sample.
His first-serve points won is 63.4%, below his overall 68.5% across all surfaces. Forejtek has won 42% of return points on clay, so Clarke may need to rely on his second serve and break-point saving to hold.
- Clarke's first-serve points won on clay: 63.4% (8 matches).
- Clarke's overall first-serve points won: 68.5% (15 matches).
- Forejtek's return points won on clay: 42% (14 matches).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Jay Clarke

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Clarke's stronger recent clay form and better quality of opposition give him the edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Clarke's stronger recent clay form and better quality of opposition give him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Jay Clarke has a 4-4 clay record in his last 8 matches, while Jonas Forejtek is 6-9 in his last 15 clay matches.
- Clarke's recent clay form includes wins over Pedro Martinez Portero (rank 148) and Duje Ajdukovic, showing ability to beat higher-ranked opponents.
- Forejtek has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, including defeats to players ranked 224, 541, and 432.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches frequently exceed 21.5 games due to competitive three-set encounters.
- Clarke's last 15 matches averaged 26.5 games per match, with 8 of 15 going over 21.5 games.
- Forejtek's last 15 matches averaged 22.7 games per match, with 9 of 15 going over 21.5 games.
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches recently: Clarke 8 of 15, Forejtek 9 of 15.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Clarke's last 15 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
- Forejtek's last 15 first sets averaged 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have a tendency to play tight opening sets, with several tiebreaks and 7-5 scores.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Clarke's last 15 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
- Forejtek's last 15 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have been involved in several 7-5 and 7-6 second sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches suggests a high likelihood of a deciding set.
- Clarke has played 8 three-set matches in his last 15, while Forejtek has played 9 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 50%, indicating closely matched contests.
- Forejtek's last 5 matches include 4 three-set matches, showing a pattern of extended battles.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's recent trend of starting matches strongly and Forejtek's slow starts support a Clarke first-set win.
- Clarke won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, while Forejtek won the first set in only 2 of his last 5.
- Clarke's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.
- Forejtek has lost the first set in 3 of his last 4 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forejtek's recent second-set resilience and Clarke's occasional second-set lapses make this a coin-flip prediction.
- Forejtek has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, while Clarke has won the second set in 2 of his last 5.
- Forejtek's second-set performance has been stronger recently, with wins in 3 of his last 4 second sets.
- Clarke has lost the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, showing a potential dip after the first set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJonas ForejtekEstimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages and pressure situations in a close match make over 4.5 double faults likely.
- Clarke averages 2.9 double faults per match in his last 15, while Forejtek averages 1.9 in his last 14.
- Combined average double faults per match is 4.8, with Clarke's clay average at 2.5 and Forejtek's at 1.9.
- Both players have shown vulnerability on second serve, with second-serve points won around 50%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a close call, but a three-set match increases the chance of exceeding 6.5 aces.
- Clarke averages 3.7 aces per match in his last 15, while Forejtek averages 2.4 aces per match in his last 14.
- Combined average aces per match is 6.1, with Clarke's clay average at 2.0 and Forejtek's at 2.4.
- On clay, both players' ace counts are lower, but a three-set match could push the total over 6.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tendency to play close sets make a tiebreak plausible.
- Clarke has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, while Forejtek has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 14.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.
- Several of their recent matches have featured tight sets, including 7-6 and 7-5 scores.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Jay Clarke has struggled to convert projected wins

Jay Clarke has fulfilled 1 of 4 recent match-winner predictions, a 25% success rate. His average estimated probability was 64.3%, but he won only once, with all three misses ending in straight-set losses. The current prediction of 58% sits within his historical range of 55-78%, but his recent results suggest lower reliability than the probabilities implied.

Recent evidence for Jay Clarke4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#239Jay Clarke1-2#723Louis Wessels

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·78%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#239Jay Clarke1-2#723Louis Wessels

Jay Clarke to win

78%probability

Louis Wessels won

Missed

20 May·ATP Roland Garros

#382Thomas Faurel2-0#199Jay Clarke

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·62%

Missed

20 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#382Thomas Faurel2-0#199Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke to win

62%probability

Thomas Faurel won

Missed

14 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#369Dali Blanch2-1#207Jay Clarke

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·62%

Missed

14 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#369Dali Blanch2-1#207Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke to win

62%probability

Dali Blanch won

Missed

12 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#207Jay Clarke2-0#140Moez Echargui

BetBugsJay Clarke to win·55%

Matched

12 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#207Jay Clarke2-0#140Moez Echargui

Jay Clarke to win

55%probability

Jay Clarke won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jay Clarke

7W 8L

6-7(4) 7-5 6-1#234Juan Pablo Varillas

2-6 6-3 6-2#324Duje Ajdukovic

7-5 3-6 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-4#367Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#157Rei Sakamoto

6-3 4-6 6-4#185Clement Chidekh

1-6 6-4 6-4#178Jerome Kym

4-6 6-3 4-0 ret.#490Louis Wessels

6-4 4-6 6-4#875Stijn Paardekooper

7-5 6-3—Mac Visser

2-6 7-6(5) 6-4#129Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 7-6(5)#106Christopher O'Connell

7-6(3) 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

6-4 5-7 6-2#247August Holmgren

6-1 6-4#378Daniel Masur

Jonas Forejtek

6W 9L

6-2 2-6 6-1#224Raul Brancaccio

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#541Gerard Campana Lee

6-1 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

2-1 ret.#432Mika Petkovic

6-2 6-1—Harold Huens

4-6 7-6(3) 7-5#532Ryan Nijboer

6-3 7-5#580Karol Filar

6-2 5-7 6-4#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(3) 6-1#160Taro Daniel

4-6 6-4 6-2#212Maxim Mrva

4-6 6-1 6-0#118Zsombor Piros

6-0 6-1#324Duje Ajdukovic

4-6 6-2 6-2#300Mert Alkaya

6-4 6-3#175Zdenek Kolar

6-7(4) 6-1 7-6(5)#270Hynek Barton

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJay ClarkeClarke

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Jonas ForejtekForejtekJF

Jonas Forejtek carries the stronger recent form — Jay Clarke's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.5%+6.9pp64.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.5%+4.2pp64.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.7%+4.4pp47.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.7+1.32.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.91.0 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.6%+3.4pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1548.6%—48.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.3%+4.0pp64.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%—50.5%

Serve · 3–2

57.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.9pp64.4%

68.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp64.3%

51.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp47.3%

3.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.32.4

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.0 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

38.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

48.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—48.5%

60.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp64.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.5%