Dali Blanch vs Jay Clarke: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Clarke's superior clay-court pedigree, recent dominant performance against a higher-ranked opponent, and better clutch stats give him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Clarke has a career clay win percentage of 58.5% (179 wins) vs Blanch's 52.7% (99 wins), with a stronger 2025 clay season (26-9) compared to Blanch's 36-16.
- Clarke's recent form in Tunis: dominant 6-0 6-3 win over world No. 140 Echargui, while Blanch needed three sets to beat No. 220 Zhou.
- Clarke's first-set win conversion rate is 86%, significantly higher than Blanch's 79%, indicating he capitalizes on early leads more effectively.
- Clarke has a higher career deciding-set win percentage (56% vs 41%) and better break-point save rate (58.1% vs 55%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's recent competitiveness and Clarke's occasional closer matches make it likely that Blanch will keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Blanch has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches, with his only loss being a 6-2 6-2 defeat.
- Clarke's average margin of victory in his last 5 wins is 5.6 games, but against tougher opponents he has had closer matches.
- Blanch's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked players (No. 195 Den Ouden, No. 220 Zhou), showing competitiveness.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDali Blanch +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their balanced return stats indicate a likelihood of a longer match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Blanch's last three matches have averaged 22.3 games per match, with two going over 21.5 games.
- Clarke's matches in the last 15 have averaged 21.1 games, with 8 of 15 going over 21.5.
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (41%), suggesting potential for breaks and longer games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent first sets and their balanced return stats suggest the first set could exceed 9.5 games.
- Blanch's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Clarke's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (41%), indicating potential for breaks and extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While second sets can vary, the overall competitiveness of the matchup gives a neutral chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Blanch's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.0 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Clarke's last 5 second sets have averaged 8.8 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Second sets can be more competitive if the first set is close, but blowouts are also possible.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Clarke's high first-set win conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Clarke's first-set win conversion rate is 86% over his career, while Blanch's is 79%.
- In his last 5 matches, Clarke has won the first set in 4 of them, including a 6-0 set against Echargui.
- Blanch has lost the first set in 2 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Blanch's recent pattern of three-set matches and both players' ability to fight back suggest a reasonable chance of the match going the distance.
- Blanch has played three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, showing a tendency to battle even in wins.
- Clarke has gone to three sets in 4 of his last 15 matches, but his deciding-set win percentage is 56%.
- Both players have similar comeback rates (19%), indicating they can extend matches when behind.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages of both players suggest a slight lean towards the over, though clay can sometimes reduce double faults due to longer rallies.
- Blanch has a double fault rate of 4.3%, averaging about 3.4 double faults per match in his last 5.
- Clarke has a double fault rate of 3.4%, averaging about 2.8 double faults per match in his last 5.
- Combined, their average double faults per match is around 6.2, slightly above the 5.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both players have moderate ace rates, the clay surface typically reduces ace counts, making the over 7.5 a borderline call.
- Blanch averages 6.2 aces per match (ace rate 6.2%), while Clarke averages 4.6 aces per match (ace rate 4.6%).
- Combined, their average ace rates suggest around 10.8 aces per match, but on clay this number typically decreases.
- In their recent matches, Blanch has hit 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 aces; Clarke has hit 3, 2, 4, 5, and 2 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Dali Blanch #369United States2Jay Clarke #207United Kingdom1

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Dali Blanch

Jay Clarke

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Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Dali Blanch

Jay Clarke