ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #212Sweden2Semen Pankin #421Russia1

Sets 5-7 · 7-5 · 6-3Mon 14 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 209 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Semen Pankin

Russia

ITF lists Pankin as a 26-year-old right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His documented career-high ATP ranking is No. 414, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #421
Peak ranking: #414 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Ymer is favored by ranking but his poor recent hard-court form makes this closer than odds imply.

Best angles: Pankin +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, with a tiebreak likely.

Context

Ymer, 204th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career win rate of 54.1%. Pankin, 421st, has a 66.3% career win rate and has played mostly on hard courts this year.
Ymer's last 15 matches show a 33.3% win rate overall and just 25% on hard courts, with a first-serve percentage of 55.8% and return points won at 34%. Pankin's overall record is 46.7%, and his return points won is 39.9%, suggesting he may be more competitive in rallies. However, Pankin's hard-court record is only 28.6%, so neither player has a clear edge on this surface.
- Ymer last 15 overall: 5-10 (33.3%), hard court: 2-6 (25%).
- Pankin last 15 overall: 7-8 (46.7%), hard court: 2-5 (28.6%).
- Ymer return points won on hard: 34%, Pankin: 36.1%.
- Ymer first serve in on hard: 55.8%, Pankin: 51.3%.
Elias Ymer, ATP No. 204, retired from his last match on 1 September after collapsing twice during the second set against Yu Hsiou Hsu.
The episode was reported as heat stroke with no serious consequences, so it raises a short-term availability question but does not confirm an ongoing physical problem. Ymer has had nearly two weeks to recover before this Guangzhou match.
- The 1 September match ended with Ymer retiring after two on-court collapses during the second set.
- The subsequent update described heat stroke and no serious consequences.
- Stored recent sample: 1 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z against Yu Hsiou Hsu ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 04:23 · Europe/BucharestElias Ymer retires after Zhangjiagang heat-stroke episodemagazine.tennistalker.it · 5 Sep 2026
Ymer has played 15 matches in the last two months, including a retirement on September 1. He has not won back-to-back matches since early August.
The retirement is a red flag for his current physical condition, and he has lost three of his last four matches. If he is not fully fit, Pankin could take advantage, especially in longer rallies. However, Ymer has had over a week to recover, so the impact may be limited.
- Ymer retired at 5-5 in the second set vs Yu Hsiou Hsu on 2026-09-01.
- Ymer has lost 3 of his last 4 matches since the retirement.
- No current injury report is available, but the retirement is recent.
Pankin has played 8 clay and 7 hard matches in his last 15, with a clear split in results. His career record also shows more success on clay relative to hard courts.
On hard courts, Pankin's first-serve percentage drops to 51.3% and his return points won falls to 36.1%, compared to 58.9% and 42.7% on clay. This suggests he may struggle to impose his game on this surface, giving Ymer a chance despite his own poor form.
- Pankin last 15 on clay: 5-3 (62.5%), on hard: 2-5 (28.6%).
- Pankin first serve in on hard: 51.3%, on clay: 58.9%.
- Pankin return points won on hard: 36.1%, on clay: 42.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Elias Ymer

1.36fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Ymer's higher ranking and slightly better recent hard-court form give him a narrow edge, though Pankin's superior career hard-court win percentage keeps this close.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Ymer's higher ranking and slightly better recent hard-court form give him a narrow edge, though Pankin's superior career hard-court win percentage keeps this close.
- Ymer ranking 204 vs Pankin 421
- Ymer last15 overall record 5-10, Pankin 7-8
- Ymer hard last15 record 2-6, Pankin hard last15 record 2-5
- Ymer career hard win% 101/202=50%, Pankin 77/123=63%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElias YmerEstimated chance55%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed the line.
- Ymer last15 average games per match 21.7
- Pankin last15 average games per match 22.1
- Ymer hard last15 average games per match 21.6
- Pankin hard last15 average games per match 21.9
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pankin's superior recent games and points won percentages suggest he can keep the match close, making the +3.5 handicap a solid value.
- Ymer last15 games won 45.7%, Pankin 49.7%
- Ymer hard last15 games won 45.7%, Pankin hard last15 48.4%
- Ymer last15 total points won 47.4%, Pankin 49.8%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSemen Pankin +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average close to 10 games, supporting an over on the 9.5 line.
- Ymer last15 first set average games 9.9
- Pankin last15 first set average games 9.7
- Ymer hard last15 first set average games 10.1
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been similarly competitive, with both players averaging around 9.5 games, making the over a reasonable lean.
- Ymer last15 second set average games 9.5
- Pankin last15 second set average games 9.8
- Ymer hard last15 second set average games 9.4
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ymer's stronger first-serve performance in recent matches gives him a slight edge in the opening set, though Pankin's high first-set conversion rate tempers confidence.
- Ymer first set win conversion 83% career
- Pankin first set win conversion 88% career
- Ymer last15 first serve points won 69.3%, Pankin 65%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tiebreaks in roughly 20-25% of recent matches, and their close level suggests a tiebreak is more likely than not.
- Ymer career tiebreak win% 47%
- Pankin career tiebreak win% 41%
- Ymer last15 had 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Pankin last15 had 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players slightly exceed 9.5, supporting a lean to the over.
- Ymer last15 aces per match 5.5
- Pankin last15 aces per match 4.3
- Combined average 9.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just below the line, but variance in serving under pressure makes the over a coin-flip lean.
- Ymer last15 double faults per match 2.5
- Pankin last15 double faults per match 2.8
- Combined average 5.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Elias Ymer

5W 10L

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#250Pavel Kotov

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-2 7-6(5)#135Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#271Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#504Paul Jubb

6-3 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-0 7-6(5)#400Trevor Svajda

6-4 6-1#205Timofey Skatov

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#132Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#227Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#31Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#430Niels Visker

6-4 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-3#88Sho Shimabukuro

Semen Pankin

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-4#183Alexis Galarneau

6-3 7-5#420Yosuke Watanuki

7-5 6-1—Dimitar Kisimov

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#668Stefan Horia Haita

7-6(9) 3-6 6-2—Drazen Petrovic

6-2 6-1—Dusan Bazdar

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#323Fajing Sun

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-4 6-1#323Fajing Sun

6-2 1-6 7-5#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 6-3—Togan Tokac

6-4 6-4—Sebastiano Cocola

1-6 7-5 6-3—Marko Bekeni

6-3 6-3#680Timofei Derepasko

6-7(6) 6-4 6-2#790Ilya Snitari

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EYElias YmerYmer

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Semen PankinPankinSP

Semen Pankin carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In58.8%+3.4pp55.4%

1st Serve Won69.3%+4.3pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+2.1pp51.4%

Aces / Match5.5+1.24.3

Double Faults / Match2.50.3 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.9%+7.0pp39.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.0%+6.6pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved59.6%+4.2pp63.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.4%+2.4pp49.8%

Serve · 4–1

58.8%1st Serve In+3.4pp55.4%

69.3%1st Serve Won+4.3pp65.0%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp51.4%

5.5Aces / Match+1.24.3

2.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won+7.0pp39.9%

Pressure · 0–2

38.0%Break Pts Converted+6.6pp44.6%

59.6%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp63.8%

Points · 0–1

47.4%Total Pts Won+2.4pp49.8%