Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus22 – 1Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Ivashka's larger recent hard-court sample and consistent straight-set wins give him a slight edge, though Sharipov's perfect 4-0 hard record in the last 15 adds uncertainty.

• Ivashka last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 56% games won, 53.1% total points won.
• Sharipov last 15 on hard: 4-0 record, but only 4 matches tracked; overall last 15 includes 11 clay matches.
• Ivashka has won 4 straight matches in Shanghai, all in straight sets, including wins over Tomic (rank 179) and Zhou (248).
• Sharipov also won 4 straight in Shanghai, but his last 4 hard-court matches are a small sample; career hard win% 65.8 vs Ivashka 59.9.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Combined recent match lengths and solid serving suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Ivashka last 15 average total games per match: 23.9 (359 games / 15 matches).
• Sharipov last 15 average total games per match: 20.3 (304 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have strong serve stats: Ivashka first serve points won 75.8%, Sharipov 78.3%.
• Ivashka's last 5 matches: 19, 18, 28, 18, 23 total games; Sharipov's last 5: 21, 20, 25, 33, 18.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Sharipov's strong serve and competitive recent form make him likely to stay within 3.5 games of Ivashka.

• Ivashka average games won per match last 15: 13.4; Sharipov: 11.6.
• Ivashka average games lost per match last 15: 10.5; Sharipov: 8.7.
• Expected game differential: Ivashka -1.8 games, well within +3.5 for Sharipov.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players hold serve well early, making a 7-5 or 6-4 first set more likely than a quick 6-2.

• Ivashka first set average games last 15: 9.6 (144 games / 15 sets).
• Sharipov first set average games last 15: 9.3 (139 games / 15 sets).
• Both players have first serve points won above 75% in last 15.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players start strong, but Ivashka's slightly better recent first-set consistency on hard courts gives him a marginal edge.

• Ivashka first set win conversion career 87%, Sharipov 90%.
• Ivashka won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Sharipov won first set in 4 of last 5 matches.
• Ivashka first serve points won 75.8% last 15; Sharipov 78.3% last 15.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Sharipov's high ace rate, especially on hard courts, combined with Ivashka's consistent serving makes over 9.5 aces likely.

• Ivashka aces per match last 15: 4.5; Sharipov aces per match last 15: 6.9.
• Sharipov aces per match on hard last 4 matches: 11.8.
• Combined expected aces: 4.5 + 6.9 = 11.4 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults a reasonable expectation.

• Ivashka double faults per match last 15: 3.2.
• Sharipov double faults per match last 15: 3.3.
• Combined expected double faults: 6.5 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

With both players serving well, at least one tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility.

• Ivashka tiebreak win percentage career: 49%; Sharipov: 54%.
• Ivashka played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches; Sharipov in 4 of last 15.
• Both players have strong first serve points won, increasing chance of tiebreaks.