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Predictions graded

Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2Lloyd Harris #1791

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-3Wed 16 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLloyd Harris · 263 places

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Lloyd Harris

Reached a career-high No. 31 on 13 September 2021. He is currently No. 179, and his career results are strongest on hard courts.

Current ranking: #179
Peak ranking: #31 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Lloyd Harris is the clear favorite with a superior ranking and dominant hard-court form, but the moneyline offers no value.

The match could be competitive, with a lean towards over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak likely. Best betting angles are total aces over 15.5 and Harris to win in straight sets.

Context

Harris, ranked 138, has been a consistent hard-court performer this season with a 27-6 record on the surface.
Harris's 86.7% win rate in his last 15 matches, all on hard courts, includes wins over top-100 players like Vit Kopriva and Laslo Djere. Sharipov's 83.3% hard-court record in his last six matches is solid, but his wins came against opponents ranked outside the top 150. This suggests Harris has been tested more and is in stronger form for this matchup.
- Harris last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%), all on hard courts.
- Harris last 15 hard-court record: 13-2 (86.7%).
- Sharipov last 6 hard-court record: 5-1 (83.3%), with wins over opponents ranked 160, 221, 396, 406, 699.
- Harris recent wins include opponents ranked 65, 118, 143, 183, 245.
Harris's serve has been a key part of his hard-court success, with a career first-serve percentage of 63%.
Harris's 10 aces per match and 76% first-serve points won give him a reliable hold game. Sharipov's 11.2 aces per match is slightly higher, but his first-serve percentage of 64.8% is lower than Harris's 65.9%, and his first-serve points won is 81.8% compared to Harris's 76%. The difference in first-serve percentage may give Harris more opportunities to attack Sharipov's second serve.
- Harris last 15 aces per match: 10.0.
- Harris last 15 first-serve points won: 76%.
- Sharipov last 6 hard-court aces per match: 11.2.
- Sharipov last 6 hard-court first-serve percentage: 64.8%.
Sharipov's overall return points won percentage is 40.8% in his last 15 matches, but it drops on hard courts.
Sharipov's 36.5% return points won on hard courts is below his overall average and lower than Harris's 37.3%. This suggests Sharipov may struggle to break Harris's serve, especially if Harris maintains his high first-serve percentage. Harris's break point conversion rate of 59.3% is also much higher than Sharipov's 45.7% on hard courts.
- Sharipov last 6 hard-court return points won: 36.5%.
- Harris last 15 return points won: 37.3%.
- Sharipov last 6 hard-court break points converted: 45.7%.
- Harris last 15 break points converted: 59.3%.
Lloyd Harris, 29, is the higher-ranked player at No. 138 and has won 13 of his last 15 matches on hard courts.
Harris took a medical timeout for a leg issue during US Open qualifying on 25 August but completed the match and has since played without a reported withdrawal. This does not suggest a current fitness concern for this match.
- The medical timeout occurred in the second set of Harris's 25 August US Open qualifying match against Bernard Tomic, which he completed and won in three sets.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 22:18 · Europe/BucharestTennis World DE match reportwww.tennisworldde.com · 25 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lloyd Harris

1.36fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Harris has a much larger and stronger recent hard-court sample with a 13-2 record and superior ranking, while Sharipov's 5-1 hard sample is too small to override the overall edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Harris has a much larger and stronger recent hard-court sample with a 13-2 record and superior ranking, while Sharipov's 5-1 hard sample is too small to override the overall edge.
- Lloyd Harris last 15 on hard: 13-2 record, 73.7% sets won, 56.7% games won
- Marat Sharipov last 15 on hard: 5-1 record, 78.6% sets won, 58.1% games won (only 6 matches tracked)
- Harris ranking 138 vs Sharipov ranking 364
- Harris career hard court wins: 321 vs Sharipov 111
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLloyd HarrisEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and Harris's longer average match duration suggests a higher total games line is likely.
- Harris last 15 average duration: 118.2 minutes
- Sharipov last 15 average duration: 100.6 minutes
- Harris last 15 games per match: 25.9 (388/15)
- Sharipov last 15 games per match: 21.7 (325/15)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown tight first sets with multiple tiebreaks, supporting a higher first-set total.
- Harris last 15 first set average games: 9.9
- Sharipov last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Harris has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Sharipov has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's strong serve and overall form give him a clear edge in the opening set, though Sharipov's high first-set conversion rate adds some uncertainty.
- Harris first set win conversion career: 87%
- Sharipov first set win conversion career: 90%
- Harris last 15 first serve points won: 76%
- Sharipov last 15 first serve points won: 77.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLloyd HarrisEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harris's strong form and high first-set conversion rate make a straight-set victory plausible, though Sharipov's resilience adds risk.
- Harris last 15 straight-set wins: 8 of 13 wins
- Sharipov last 15 straight-set losses: 3 of 5 losses
- Harris first set win conversion: 87%
- Sharipov first set win conversion: 90%
BetBugs · Set BettinglostLloyd Harris 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a moderate tiebreak frequency and similar tiebreak win rates, making a tiebreak likely in a competitive match.
- Harris last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Sharipov last 15: 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Harris career tiebreak win percentage: 52%
- Sharipov career tiebreak win percentage: 54%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers, and Harris's high ace rate combined with Sharipov's solid serving suggests a high total ace count.
- Harris last 15 aces per match: 10.0
- Sharipov last 15 aces per match: 6.8
- Harris career aces: 5734 in 665 matches (8.6 per match)
- Sharipov career aces: 2451 in 335 matches (7.3 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making the under a reasonable lean.
- Harris last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Sharipov last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Harris career double faults per match: 2.0
- Sharipov career double faults per match: 2.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

10W 5L

6-2 6-3#699Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#230Ilya Ivashka 6-3 7-5#221Pavel Kotov 6-4 6-4#396Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#406Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#307Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#615Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#659Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3#838Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#379Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

6-3 6-4—Patrick Jozwicki

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#259Marvin Moeller

Lloyd Harris

13W 2L

6-7(6) 7-5 7-6(4)#248Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(4) 6-4#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-4 6-2 6-2#391Jack Kennedy

7-6(3) 6-3#143Pablo Llamas Ruiz

2-6 6-2 7-6(10)#118Henrique Rocha

6-2 5-7 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

6-4 6-4#51Sebastian Baez

7-5 6-4#65Vit Kopriva

6-4 4-3 ret.#143Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-2#245Darwin Blanch

7-6(5) 6-3#183Laslo Djere

6-3 6-2#258Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(6)#181Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 6-3 6-3#314Daniel Milavsky

5-7 6-2 7-5#175Harry Wendelken

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

M(Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Lloyd HarrisHarrisLH

Lloyd Harris carries the stronger recent form — Marat Sharipov (RUS)'s route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.0%+7.9pp65.9%

1st Serve Won77.9%+1.9pp76.0%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+1.8pp49.8%

Aces / Match6.8+3.210.0

Double Faults / Match2.91.0 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.8%+3.5pp37.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.1%+16.2pp59.3%

Break Pts Saved59.7%+12.2pp71.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.2%—52.6%

Serve · 2–3

58.0%1st Serve In+7.9pp65.9%

77.9%1st Serve Won+1.9pp76.0%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp49.8%

6.8Aces / Match+3.210.0

2.9Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won+3.5pp37.3%

Pressure · 0–2

43.1%Break Pts Converted+16.2pp59.3%

59.7%Break Pts Saved+12.2pp71.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.2%Total Pts Won—52.6%