Cori Gauff #4United States11 – 2Elena Rybakina #2Kazakhstan2

Rybakina, 27, is the world No. 2 and a powerful server with a career 71.4% win rate. She retired from a match against Iga Swiatek on August 20, 2026, after losing the first set 4-1.

Since that retirement, Rybakina has won five consecutive matches at the US Open, including a three-set win over Zheng in the quarterfinal. The quick turnaround and lack of a full match since the retirement leave some uncertainty about her physical condition. However, her recent results suggest she has recovered enough to compete at a high level.

Rybakina, the WTA No. 2 and right-hander, retired from her Cincinnati quarterfinal on August 20 with a left-ankle issue after a medical evaluation. She then took a week off court, resumed practice before the US Open, and has won five straight matches to reach this semifinal.

The ankle problem ended a hard-court match 22 days ago, so her recovery and load management remain relevant despite completing the New York fortnight. Her serve and movement could be tested in a best-of-three semifinal against Gauff, who forces long rallies. The linked analysis gives Rybakina a medium-confidence edge, but the recent injury adds uncertainty to that outlook.

Gauff, 22, is ranked No. 4 and has a career win rate of 71.6%. She is a strong returner with a 48.6% return points won in her last 15 matches.

Gauff's recent form is excellent, with 14 wins in her last 15 matches and a 10-match winning streak. Her only loss in that span was to Rybakina in three sets on August 12. She has not dropped a set in her last five matches, including a 6-2 6-4 win over Pegula. This form gives her confidence, but Rybakina is the one player who has beaten her recently.