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Predictions graded

Cristina Bucsa #40Spain0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Sat 5 Sept 2026, 19:42 Predictions gradedGrand Slam

Predictions9–190%

Edges6–275%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 36 places

Cristina Bucsa

Spain

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 30 on March 16, 2026. Her 2026 season included a wrist-related absence from the grass swing before her August return in Toronto.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Cori Gauff is a heavy favorite over Cristina Bucsa, with superior recent hard-court form, serve, and return metrics.

Gauff is likely to win in straight sets, but the betting value is in the game totals: under 18.5 total games and under 8.5 first-set games offer slight edges. Avoid the heavily juiced Gauff moneyline and set betting markets.

Context

Gauff, 22, is ranked No. 4 and has a career 71.3% win rate. She has been especially effective on hard courts, winning 185 career matches on the surface.
Gauff's recent hard-court numbers are elite: 90.9% win rate, 63.4% games won, and 55.7% total points won in her last 11 hard-court matches. Bucsa's corresponding figures are 45.5% wins, 46.7% games won, and 48.2% total points won. Gauff also holds a clear edge in return points won (49.3% vs 42.3%) and first-serve points won (71.7% vs 59.5%). This suggests Gauff should control most rallies and create more break opportunities.
- Gauff last 15 on hard: 10-1 record, 63.4% games won, 55.7% total points won.
- Bucsa last 15 on hard: 5-6 record, 46.7% games won, 48.2% total points won.
- Gauff return points won on hard: 49.3%; Bucsa: 42.3%.
- Gauff first-serve points won on hard: 71.7%; Bucsa: 59.5%.
Bucsa, 28, is ranked No. 40 and has a career win rate of 58.2%. She has been a solid tour player but has not consistently challenged top-20 opponents.
In her last 15 matches, Bucsa is 5-10 with a 37.8% sets won rate and 46.1% games won. She retired from a match in March and has lost to players ranked 20, 22, 53, 54, 58, 75, 97, and 99 during this stretch. Her only wins have come against opponents ranked 30, 68, 73, 75, and 144. This pattern suggests she may struggle to sustain rallies against Gauff's consistent power and depth.
- Bucsa last 15 overall: 5-10 record, 37.8% sets won, 46.1% games won.
- Retired in March 2026 vs Starodubtseva (ranked 58).
- Recent losses to Mertens (20), Chwalinska (22), Sonmez (53), Zhang (54), Starodubtseva (58), Vidmanova (75), Uchijima (99), Kudermetova (97).
- Wins came against Bejlek (30), Udvardy (68), Bondar (73), Vidmanova (75), Sakatsume (144).
Bucsa, 40th-ranked and right-handed, needed more than three hours and three tiebreaks to beat Himeno Sakatsume in the second round.
That 256-point match in 30°C heat leaves her with only one full day to recover before facing Gauff. The workload could affect her movement and shot tolerance late in sets, though her win shows she can still compete under fatigue.
- The second-round match lasted more than three hours and featured three tiebreaks.
- Bucsa and Sakatsume played 256 total points.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 15:05 · Europe/BucharestWTA — Gauff snaps Badosa skid to book spot in US Open third round with Bucsawww.wtatennis.com · 3 Sep 2026AS — Bucsa, en la tercera ronda para verse con Gauffas.com · 4 Sep 2026
Gauff and Bucsa have met once before, in the 2023 Indian Wells tournament.
In that match, Gauff won 6-2 6-4. Gauff converted 80% of break points and won 69% of first-serve points, while Bucsa converted only 14% of break points and won 55% of first-serve points. This suggests Gauff's return game and first-serve effectiveness could again be decisive.
- 2023 Indian Wells: Gauff def. Bucsa 6-2 6-4.
- Gauff break point conversion: 80%; Bucsa: 14%.
- Gauff first-serve points won: 69%; Bucsa: 55%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.03fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior recent hard-court form and serve/return metrics give her a decisive edge over Bucsa, whose recent record is poor.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.08fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's strong first-set record and superior hard-court serve performance make her the clear favorite to take the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.08fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's consistent set-winning rate and return advantage should carry through the second set as well.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.12fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's straight-sets dominance on hard courts makes a two-set victory highly probable, but the odds are heavily juiced, offering no value.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff 2-0

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's straight-sets win rate on hard courts strongly supports a 2-0 scoreline, but the price is too short to back.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Cori Gauff -5.5

1.33fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior game-winning margin suggests she can cover a -5.5 game handicap.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Gauff's dominant recent hard-court form and superior serve/return metrics give her a decisive edge over Bucsa, whose recent record is poor.
- Gauff last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), hard-court record 10-1 (90.9%)
- Bucsa last 15 overall record 5-10 (33.3%), hard-court record 5-6 (45.5%)
- Gauff career hard-court win percentage 185-? (approx 71% overall), Bucsa 142-? (approx 58% overall)
- H2H: Gauff won 6-2 6-4 on hard in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance88%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's dominance suggests a straight-sets win with relatively few games, making under 20.5 likely.
- Gauff last 15 average games per match: 328/15 = 21.9 total games
- Bucsa last 15 average games per match: 356/15 = 23.7 total games
- Gauff's recent hard-court wins often by 6-3, 6-4 or more lopsided scores
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's strong serving and early breaks should keep the first set under 9.5 games.
- Gauff first-set average games in last 15: many 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 wins
- Bucsa first-set average games: often competitive but losing
- Gauff first-serve points won 70.9% overall, 71.7% on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's ability to maintain pressure in the second set should keep the game count low.
- Gauff second-set performance remains strong with 77.8% sets won
- Bucsa's second-set struggles: only 37.8% sets won overall
- Gauff hard-court second-serve points won 48.2%, Bucsa 44.6%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gauff's superior game-winning margin suggests she can cover a -5.5 game handicap.
- Gauff average games won per match last 15: 199/15 = 13.3
- Bucsa average games won per match last 15: 164/15 = 10.9
- Gauff's recent hard-court wins often by 5+ game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCori Gauff -5.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Gauff's strong first-set record and superior hard-court serve performance make her the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Gauff first-set win conversion career 92%, Bucsa 87%
- Gauff last 15 sets won 77.8%, Bucsa 37.8%
- Gauff hard-court first-serve points won 71.7%, Bucsa 59.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Gauff's consistent set-winning rate and return advantage should carry through the second set as well.
- Gauff last 15 sets won 77.8%, Bucsa 37.8%
- Gauff hard-court record 10-1, Bucsa 5-6
- Gauff return points won on hard 49.3%, Bucsa 42.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Gauff's straight-sets dominance in recent hard-court matches makes a two-set victory highly probable.
- Gauff last 15: 13 wins, 11 in straight sets (from recent form: 10 of 11 hard-court wins in straight sets)
- Bucsa last 15: only 5 wins, often losing in straight sets
- Gauff's superior ranking and form
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Gauff's straight-sets win rate on hard courts strongly supports a 2-0 scoreline.
- Gauff last 15 hard-court: 10 wins, 9 in straight sets
- Bucsa last 15: 5 wins, only 2 in straight sets
- Gauff's first-set win conversion 92%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonCori Gauff 2-0Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's dominance and Bucsa's weaker serve make a tiebreak less likely in this match.
- Gauff's recent hard-court wins often by comfortable margins
- Bucsa's last match went to three tiebreaks, but that was an outlier
- Gauff's first-serve points won 70.9% reduces tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to push the total over 7.5.
- Gauff double faults per match last 15: 4.8, hard-court: 4.4
- Bucsa double faults per match last 15: 3.6, hard-court: 3.4
- Combined average double faults: 8.4, above 7.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's ace rate alone nearly reaches the line, and Bucsa adds a small contribution, making over 5.5 plausible.
- Gauff aces per match last 15: 4.1, hard-court: 4.3
- Bucsa aces per match last 15: 1.4, hard-court: 1.3
- Combined average aces: 5.4, slightly below 5.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Bucsa's first-set struggles against top opposition make this a trap despite the high odds.

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Coco Gauff has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, a strong 87% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 75.7%, with an expected 11.4 wins, so she has outperformed expectations. The two misses came against Paula Badosa and Anastasia Potapova, both at 72% probability, while her successful predictions averaged 76.2%.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Cristina Bucsa#40vCori Gauff#4Mar 10, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Cristina Bucsa

5W 10L

7-6(6) 6-7(0) 7-6(6)#144Himeno Sakatsume 7-5 4-6 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

6-4 7-5#75Darja Vidmanova

6-4 6-3#73Anna Bondar

6-2 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-2 1-6 7-5#68Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-4#99Moyuka Uchijima

5-7 7-6(4) 6-0#97Polina Kudermetova

6-4 2-6 6-4#152Susan Bandecchi

2-6 7-6(7) 7-5#54Shuai Zhang

7-6(6) 6-2#121Qinwen Zheng

6-1 6-7(4) 6-2#53Zeynep Sonmez

6-2 3-2 ret.#58Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-2 6-1#20Elise Mertens

6-4 6-0#75Darja Vidmanova

Cori Gauff

13W 2L

6-3 6-4#53Zeynep Sonmez 6-2 6-4#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

6-2 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-1 7-6(3)#28Ann Li

2-6 6-4 6-1#47Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-3 6-1#69Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#35Maria Sakkari

6-2 7-5#117Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#7Karolina Muchova

4-6 6-3 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

4-6 6-3 6-4#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#111Claire Liu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBCristina BucsaBucsa

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Cori Gauff carries the stronger recent form — Cristina Bucsa's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.6%+3.2pp60.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1559.8%+11.1pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1543.8%+4.7pp48.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.4+2.74.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.61.2 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.0%+4.2pp47.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.8%+6.4pp47.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1548.8%+10.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.3%+6.2pp54.5%

Serve · 2–3

63.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp60.4%

59.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+11.1pp70.9%

43.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.7pp48.5%

1.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.74.1

3.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.2 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

43.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp47.2%

Pressure · 0–2

40.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+6.4pp47.2%

48.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+10.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+6.2pp54.5%

Cristina Bucsa #40Spain0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Player Profiles

Cristina Bucsa

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 8.5

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Under 2.5

Cori Gauff 2-0

Under 18.5

Cori Gauff -5.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Cristina Bucsa @ 7.50

Gauff, C 2-0 @ 1.20

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Cristina Bucsa

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle