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Predictions graded

Iva Jovic #16United States0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 23:11 Predictions gradedGrand Slam

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 12 places

Iva Jovic

United States

Reached a career-high No. 16 in March 2026. Her stated favorite surface is grass, and she won her first WTA title at Guadalajara in 2025.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 06:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Cori Gauff is a strong favorite over Iva Jovic, with superior hard-court form and a previous H2H win.

Best bets: Gauff moneyline (edge 13.5pts), over 22.5 total games (edge 7.4pts), and Gauff 2-0 (edge 10.6pts).

Context

Gauff, 22, is ranked No. 4 and has won 28 hard-court matches this season. She is a former US Open champion and one of the best movers on tour.
Her recent hard-court dominance gives her a clear edge in this matchup. She has won 12 of 13 on the surface, with a 62.7% games-won rate and 48.8% return points won. Jovic will need to serve well and avoid giving Gauff too many looks on second serves.
- Gauff's last 15 hard-court record: 12-1 (92.3%).
- She won the Cincinnati title, beating Pegula in the final.
- Her hard-court return points won is 48.8%, and first-serve points won is 71.6%.
Jovic, 18, is ranked No. 14 and has had a breakout season, reaching the fourth round of the US Open.
Her wins over Frech and Jones show she can handle solid opposition, but her hard-court stats are more modest: 66.7% win rate, 54.8% games won, and 45.4% return points won. She will need to raise her level significantly to trouble Gauff.
- Jovic's last 15 hard-court record: 4-2 (66.7%).
- She beat No. 41 Frech and No. 104 Jones in her last two matches.
- Her hard-court return points won is 45.4%, below Gauff's 48.8%.
The two Americans met once before, in Rome in May 2026.
Gauff won 5-7 7-5 6-2, and Jovic won only 33% of second-serve points in that match. If Jovic's second serve remains a weakness, Gauff can attack it and control rallies.
- H2H: Gauff leads 1-0, winning 5-7 7-5 6-2 on clay in May 2026.
- In that match, Jovic won only 33% of second-serve points.
- Gauff converted 62% of break points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Gauff's superior recent hard-court form, higher ranking, and head-to-head win give her a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Gauff last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), hard-court record 12-1 (92.3%)
- Jovic last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), hard-court record 4-2 (66.7%)
- Gauff has won 12 of last 13 hard-court matches, including US Open wins over Badosa, Pegula, Kostyuk
- H2H: Gauff beat Jovic 5-7 7-5 6-2 on clay in May 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 20 games, and their previous meeting was lengthy, supporting a higher total.
- Gauff last 15 average total games per match: 20.7
- Jovic last 15 average total games per match: 21.8
- H2H match had 32 games (5-7 7-5 6-2)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.25
The read
Both players' first sets often exceed 9 games, and their previous meeting had a long first set.
- Gauff average first-set games in last 15: 9.3
- Jovic average first-set games in last 15: 9.7
- H2H first set was 7-5 (12 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's superior form and ability to win comfortably on hard courts support a handicap cover.
- Gauff average games won per match in last 15: 12.7
- Jovic average games won per match in last 15: 11.9
- Gauff has covered -3.5 in 8 of last 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCori Gauff -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also trended over 9.5 games for both players, though with lower confidence.
- Gauff average second-set games in last 15: 9.1
- Jovic average second-set games in last 15: 9.5
- H2H second set was 7-5 (12 games)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Gauff's strong first-set record and recent dominance on hard courts make her likely to take the opening set.
- Gauff first-set win rate in last 15: 12 of 15 matches (80%)
- Jovic first-set win rate in last 15: 9 of 15 matches (60%)
- Gauff has won first set in 11 of last 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Gauff's straight-set dominance on hard courts and Jovic's occasional straight-set losses make a 2-0 Gauff win plausible.
- Gauff has won 11 of last 13 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Jovic lost in straight sets in 3 of her last 6 hard-court matches
- Gauff's last 5 wins at US Open: all straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonCori Gauff 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates, especially Gauff's, point to a combined total over 6.5.
- Gauff averages 4.4 double faults per match in last 15
- Jovic averages 2.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' ace rates suggest a combined total above 6.5, though variance is high.
- Gauff averages 4.3 aces per match in last 15, 4.2 on hard courts
- Jovic averages 2.7 aces per match in last 15, 3.7 on hard courts
- Combined average aces per match: 7.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Coco Gauff has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, a strong 87% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 75.7%, with an expected 11.4 wins, so she outperformed expectations. The two misses came against Paula Badosa and Anastasia Potapova, both with probabilities around 72%.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L5-7 7-5 6-2Iva Jovic#14vCori Gauff#4May 11, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Iva Jovic

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#104Francesca Jones 7-5 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#26Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-3#48Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 6-4#69Alina Korneeva

6-3 7-5#82Magda Linette

4-6 6-3 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 3-6 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#83Tatjana Maria

7-6(1) 6-0#44Jaqueline Cristian

6-2 6-2#70Emma Raducanu

6-2 3-6 6-3#10Amanda Anisimova

6-2 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-4#85Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-4#13Naomi Osaka

Cori Gauff

13W 2L

6-3 6-4#40Cristina Bucsa 6-4 7-6(5)#87Paula Badosa Gibert 6-3 6-4#53Zeynep Sonmez 6-2 6-4#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

6-2 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-1 7-6(3)#28Ann Li

2-6 6-4 6-1#47Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-3 6-1#69Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#35Maria Sakkari

6-2 7-5#117Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#7Karolina Muchova

4-6 6-3 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IJIva JovicJovic

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Cori Gauff carries the stronger recent form — Iva Jovic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.9%+1.8pp59.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1567.1%+4.0pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.1%+1.0pp50.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.7+1.64.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.71.7 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1544.8%+2.4pp47.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1549.6%+1.6pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1554.6%+5.9pp60.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.1%+2.7pp54.8%

Serve · 1–4

57.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp59.7%

67.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp71.1%

49.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp50.1%

2.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.64.3

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

44.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp47.2%

Pressure · 1–1

49.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp48.0%

54.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp60.5%

Points · 0–1

52.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp54.8%

Iva Jovic

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Cori Gauff 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Iva Jovic

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle