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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia1Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 2-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 18:16 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–260%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 1 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 16:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Gauff's 5-0 H2H record and dominant hard-court form (13-1 in last 15) make her a strong favorite over Andreeva.

Best bet: Gauff to win at 1.55 (7.5-point edge), with value also on Gauff 2-0 at 2.30. Avoid the -3.5 game handicap due to Gauff's recent narrow margins.

Context

Gauff, 22, is ranked No. 4 and has built a 29-7 hard-court record in 2026. Andreeva, 19, is ranked No. 5 and has won 21 of 29 hard-court matches this season.
Gauff's recent hard-court sample is stronger: she has won 92.9% of her last 14 hard matches and 63.2% of games, compared with Andreeva's 77.8% match wins and 61.2% games. Gauff also beat top-15 opponents Pegula and Kostyuk in straight sets during that run, while Andreeva's best hard-court win came against No. 25 Potapova. This suggests Gauff enters with a clearer current level on this surface.
- Gauff last 15 on hard: 13-1 record, 63.2% games won, 92.9% match win rate.
- Andreeva last 15 on hard: 7-2 record, 61.2% games won, 77.8% match win rate.
- Gauff beat No. 3 Pegula 6-2 6-4 and No. 11 Kostyuk 6-2 6-2 in Cincinnati.
- Andreeva's best hard-court win in the sample was over No. 25 Potapova.
Gauff has won all five career meetings with Andreeva, including four on clay and one on hard. Their most recent match was a 4-6 6-2 6-4 Gauff win in Rome in May 2026.
The head-to-head pattern is one-sided: Gauff has won every set in their last two meetings and has a 5-0 overall edge. Andreeva has never taken a match off Gauff, and Gauff's return numbers in those matches (50% return points won vs Andreeva's 35%) show she has consistently pressured Andreeva's serve. This history gives Gauff a clear tactical reference point.
- Gauff leads head-to-head 5-0, with wins in 2023, 2025, and 2026.
- Most recent meeting: Gauff won 4-6 6-2 6-4 on clay in Rome, May 2026.
- In H2H stats, Gauff won 50% of return points vs Andreeva's 35%.
- Gauff won 72% of first-serve points in H2H vs Andreeva's 55%.
Andreeva, 19, is ranked No. 5 and has reached the US Open quarter-final for the first time. She has won 11 of her last 15 matches overall.
Andreeva's recent form is solid, but the quality of opposition is a question. In her last five wins, the highest-ranked opponent was No. 25 Potapova, and she lost to No. 11 Kostyuk in Cincinnati. Gauff, by contrast, has beaten No. 3 Pegula and No. 11 Kostyuk in the same period. This suggests Andreeva's run may not fully prepare her for Gauff's level.
- Andreeva's last five wins: Potapova (25), Bartunkova (34), Lys (98), Tjen (36), Tjen (36).
- Andreeva lost to No. 11 Kostyuk 4-6 6-0 6-2 in Cincinnati.
- Gauff beat No. 3 Pegula and No. 11 Kostyuk in straight sets in Cincinnati.
- Andreeva's overall last-15 record is 11-4, but only one win came against a top-20 opponent.
Gauff, the WTA No. 4 and right-hander, has worked on her serve and mentality before this US Open.
She held through a nine-minute, six-deuce game in her opener, saving three break points. That suggests her serve may be more reliable under pressure, but one match is a small sample.
- Gauff described pre-tournament work on her serve and mentality.
- She held for 3-3 after saving three break points against Zeynep Sonmez on September 2.
- Stored recent sample: 5 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 16:25 · Europe/BucharestGauff's clutch serving lifts her to win over Sonmez in US Open first roundwww.wtatennis.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Cori Gauff

1.59fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.9%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's strong first-set record and Andreeva's recent first-set struggles support a Gauff first-set win, but the edge is thin.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Gauff's dominant H2H and superior recent hard-court form give her a clear edge in this quarter-final.
- Gauff leads H2H 5-0, including a 4-6 6-2 6-4 win on clay in May 2026.
- Gauff's last 15 hard-court record is 13-1 (92.9%), with 63.2% games won.
- Andreeva's last 15 hard-court record is 7-2 (77.8%), but she lost to Kostyuk and Fernandez in recent hard matches.
- Gauff has won 13 of her last 15 matches overall, including a straight-sets win over world No. 3 Pegula.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and H2H history suggests a close contest with over 20 games.
- Andreeva's last 15 matches average 19.4 total games, but her recent three-set matches push totals higher.
- Gauff's last 15 matches average 20.0 total games, with several 12-13 game sets.
- H2H matches have averaged 21.6 games, with two of five going to three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.59
The read
Gauff's tendency to start fast and Andreeva's recent first-set struggles support a Gauff first-set win.
- Gauff has won the first set in 12 of her last 14 hard-court matches.
- Andreeva has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including against Kostyuk and Krejcikova.
- Gauff's first-set win conversion rate is 92% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCori GauffEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Coco Gauff has fulfilled 13 of 15 win projections, a strong 87% fulfilment rate. Her average estimated probability was 75.7%, with an expected 11.4 wins, so she has outperformed expectations by 1.6 wins. The two missed projections both came at 72% probability, while her matched projections averaged 76.2%, indicating her losses occurred in slightly lower-confidence matchups.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-5 (5 meetings)

L4-6 6-2 6-4Mirra Andreeva#5vCori Gauff#4May 12, 2026

L6-4 7-6(5)Mirra Andreeva#5vCori Gauff#4May 14, 2025

L7-5 6-1Mirra Andreeva#5vCori Gauff#4Apr 30, 2025

L6-3 6-2Mirra Andreeva#5vCori Gauff#4Aug 30, 2023

L6-7(5) 6-1 6-1Mirra Andreeva#5vCori Gauff#4Jun 3, 2023

Cori Gauff dominates (5 meetings)5 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

5-7 6-4 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova 6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova 6-0 6-2#98Eva Lys 6-2 6-2#36Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#36Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#33Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#57Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#29Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#82Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#11Marta Kostyuk

6-0 6-3#17Sorana Cirstea

Cori Gauff

13W 2L

6-1 6-4#14Iva Jovic 6-3 6-4#40Cristina Bucsa 6-4 7-6(5)#87Paula Badosa Gibert 6-3 6-4#53Zeynep Sonmez 6-2 6-4#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

6-2 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-1 7-6(3)#28Ann Li

2-6 6-4 6-1#47Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-3 6-1#69Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#35Maria Sakkari

6-2 7-5#117Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#7Karolina Muchova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.8%+5.1pp58.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.4%+1.2pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.5%+3.4pp50.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.3+0.63.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.50.9 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1547.6%—47.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1550.4%+4.7pp45.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1559.0%—59.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.7%—55.1%

Serve · 2–3

63.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.1pp58.7%

70.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp71.6%

47.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp50.9%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.63.9

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

47.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—47.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

50.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp45.7%

59.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—59.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—55.1%

Mirra Andreeva

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff 2-0

Cori Gauff

Over 20.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mirra Andreeva

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle