United StatesWTA US OpenFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Nikola Bartunkova #42Czechia0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Sat 5 Sept 2026, 16:59 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 37 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Nikola Bartunkova

Czechia

Bartunkova is a 20-year-old Czech right-hander. She reached a recorded career-high No. 41 on July 27, 2026.

Current ranking: #42
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva is a heavy favorite due to superior ranking, hard-court efficiency, and first-set dominance.

Bartunkova's resilience and long matches could challenge, but Andreeva's straight-set trend makes her the likely winner. Best value lies in Andreeva -3.5 games or 2-0 set betting, while the total games over is risky given Andreeva's recent blowouts.

Context

Andreeva, 19, is ranked No. 5 and has a 19-8 hard-court record in 2026. Bartunkova, 20, is ranked No. 34 and has a 19-9 hard-court record this year.
Andreeva's recent hard-court results include 6-0 6-2 and 6-2 6-2 wins, while Bartunkova needed three sets in three of her last four matches. Andreeva's cleaner wins suggest she is in better form for this surface, but Bartunkova's ability to win long matches keeps her competitive.
- Andreeva's last 7 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 2 losses, with 4 straight-set wins.
- Bartunkova's last 4 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 1 loss, with 3 three-set matches.
- Andreeva's hard-court record in 2026 is 19-8; Bartunkova's is 19-9.
Bartunkova's last four matches have averaged over two hours, with three going the distance.
The physical toll of those matches could reduce her sharpness against Andreeva, who has had quicker wins. However, Bartunkova has shown she can recover and win long matches, so the impact is uncertain.
- Bartunkova's last four matches: 3 three-setters, 1 straight-set win.
- Average duration of Bartunkova's last 14 matches: 127.1 minutes.
- Andreeva's average duration in last 14 matches: 86.9 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Andreeva's superior ranking, stronger recent hard-court game win percentage, and elite first-set conversion give her a clear edge over Bartunkova.
- Andreeva last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Bartunkova 10-5 (66.7%)
- Andreeva hard-court last 15: 5-2 record, 62.7% games won; Bartunkova hard-court last 15: 9-4 record, 55.1% games won
- Andreeva ranking #5 vs Bartunkova #34; Andreeva first-set win conversion 89% career
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, and both players have solid game-winning percentages, supporting a total over 20.5 games.
- Andreeva last 15 average match duration 86.9 min; Bartunkova 127.1 min
- Bartunkova last 15 hard-court average duration 132.2 min, indicating longer matches
- Andreeva last 15 games won 61.7%, Bartunkova 54.7%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Andreeva's consistent game-winning edge on hard courts suggests she can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Andreeva last 15 games won 61.7%, Bartunkova 54.7%
- Andreeva hard-court games won 62.7%, Bartunkova 55.1%
- Andreeva has won 5 of last 7 hard-court matches by 4+ games margin
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMirra Andreeva -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's low first-serve percentage may extend rallies and games, making a longer first set plausible.
- Bartunkova last 15 hard-court first-serve in 49.8%, leading to more return points
- Andreeva last 15 hard-court first-serve in 64.4%
- Both players have break point conversion rates around 42-53%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Andreeva's strong first-set conversion rate and better serve/return numbers on hard courts make her likely to take the opening set.
- Andreeva career first-set win conversion 89%
- Andreeva last 15 hard-court first-serve points won 75%, Bartunkova 69.6%
- Andreeva last 15 hard-court return points won 45.8%, Bartunkova 44%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Andreeva's superior set-winning percentage and recent straight-set victories on hard courts support a 2-0 win.
- Andreeva last 15 sets won 75%, Bartunkova 60.5%
- Andreeva hard-court last 15 sets won 73.3%, Bartunkova 61.8%
- Andreeva has won 5 of last 7 hard-court matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's dominance in sets and recent straight-set trend make a two-set match more likely than three.
- Andreeva last 15 sets won 75%, Bartunkova 60.5%
- Andreeva has won 5 of last 7 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Bartunkova has gone to three sets in 6 of last 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's high ace rate and Andreeva's decent serving suggest the combined ace total can exceed 7.5.
- Andreeva last 15 aces per match 3.2, Bartunkova 5.1
- Combined average aces per match 8.3
- Bartunkova hard-court aces per match 5.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 7 double faults combined, making over 6.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Andreeva last 15 double faults per match 2.9, Bartunkova 4.1
- Combined average double faults per match 7.0
- Bartunkova hard-court double faults per match 4.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirra Andreeva has fulfilled 12 of 15 win predictions, a strong 80% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 74%, with an expected 11.1 wins, so she has slightly outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 78% is within her historical range of 56% to 92%.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

6-0 6-2#98Eva Lys 6-2 6-2#36Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#36Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#33Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#57Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#29Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#82Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#11Marta Kostyuk

6-0 6-3#17Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-2#175Jil Teichmann

6-4 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

Nikola Bartunkova

10W 5L

6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#83Tatjana Maria 6-1 6-2#52Mayar Sherif 1-6 6-4 6-2#20Elise Mertens

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#75Darja Vidmanova

6-7(4) 7-5 6-4#289En Shuo Liang

6-4 6-3#85Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 6-3#17Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-4 6-3#108Alina Charaeva

3-6 6-0 6-4#10Amanda Anisimova

6-3 6-4#38Clara Tauson

7-5 6-4#183Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(6)#76Lanlana Tararudee

3-6 6-4 6-1#138Yue Yuan

6-3 7-5#29Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#42Katerina Siniakova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikola BartunkovaBartunkovaNB

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Nikola Bartunkova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1565.1%+15.2pp49.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1569.8%+1.0pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1549.5%—50.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/153.2+1.95.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.91.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1547.5%+3.4pp44.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1547.9%+5.5pp42.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1562.5%+4.2pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1554.9%+3.3pp51.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

65.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+15.2pp49.9%

69.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.0pp68.8%

49.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15—50.0%

3.2Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.95.1

2.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

47.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp44.1%

Pressure · 2–0

47.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+5.5pp42.4%

62.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+4.2pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

54.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.3pp51.6%

Mirra Andreeva

Nikola Bartunkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Mirra Andreeva -3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Mirra Andreeva

Nikola Bartunkova

Stat Battle