Tamara Korpatsch #79Germany00 – 2Cori Gauff #7United States2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03

The read

Gauff's massive surface-fit edge on grass (75% career win rate vs Korpatsch's 30%) and superior overall quality (ranking, win%) make her a heavy favorite.

• Gauff career grass win% 24-8 (75%), Korpatsch 11-26 (30%)
• Gauff 2026 grass: 0-1 (loss to Badosa), Korpatsch 2026 grass: 0-3 (losses to Ruse, Pohankova, Begu)
• Gauff ranking #7 vs Korpatsch #79, Gauff 70.6% career win% vs Korpatsch 56.6%
• Gauff first-set win conversion 92%, Korpatsch 88%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Korpatsch struggles to win games on grass, and Gauff's strong serve and return stats should lead to a quick match with fewer than 19.5 total games.

• Korpatsch's last 3 grass losses: 12, 13, 13 games total (avg 12.7 games per match)
• Gauff's last 5 wins: avg 12.4 games per match
• Gauff's serve/return edge: 68% first-serve win% vs Korpatsch 60%, 44% second-serve win% vs 44%
• Korpatsch break-point save rate 51.3% vs Gauff 56.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67

The read

Gauff's superiority on grass and Korpatsch's poor results indicate Gauff can cover a -5.5 game handicap.

• Korpatsch's last 3 grass losses: game differentials of -7, -5, -7
• Gauff's last 5 wins: avg game differential +6.2
• Gauff's serve/return edge suggests a comfortable margin
• Korpatsch's break-point save rate 51.3% is vulnerable

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Korpatsch has been uncompetitive in first sets on grass, and Gauff's strong serving could lead to a quick set under 8.5 games.

• Korpatsch's last 3 grass first sets: 4, 2, 1 games won
• Gauff's last 5 first sets won: avg 6-3 scoreline
• Gauff first-serve win% 68% on grass likely to dominate
• Korpatsch return points win% 48% career, but lower on grass

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Gauff's elite first-set record and Korpatsch's poor grass starts make Gauff a strong favorite to win the opening set.

• Gauff career first-set win% 92%, Korpatsch 88% but on grass much lower
• Gauff won first set in 12 of last 15 matches
• Korpatsch lost first set in all 3 grass matches this year
• Gauff's first-serve win% 68% vs Korpatsch 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08

The read

Gauff's consistency and Korpatsch's inability to win sets on grass make Gauff likely to take the second set as well.

• Gauff won second set in 11 of last 15 matches
• Korpatsch lost second set in all 3 grass matches this year
• Gauff's deciding-set win% 65% vs Korpatsch 55%
• Gauff's break-point convert rate 48.7% vs Korpatsch's save rate 51.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Gauff's dominance on grass and Korpatsch's recent straight-set losses on grass suggest a 2-0 win is likely, though Gauff's occasional three-set matches keep it from HIGH confidence.

• Gauff won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets when winning
• Korpatsch lost last 3 grass matches in straight sets
• Gauff first-set win% 92% career, Korpatsch first-set win% in losses is low
• H2H 2019: Korpatsch won 2-0 on indoor hard, but surface and form irrelevant now

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given Gauff's expected dominance and Korpatsch's weak grass form, a tiebreak is unlikely, though Gauff's occasional close sets keep it from HIGH confidence.

• Gauff tiebreak win% 62% career, Korpatsch 49%
• Korpatsch has played only 1 tiebreak in last 15 matches (lost)
• Gauff played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches (won 1, lost 2)
• Grass matches often have fewer tiebreaks due to serve dominance

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Gauff's superior ace rate on a grass surface should push the total aces over 5.5, with Korpatsch adding minimal aces.

• Gauff ace rate 5.1% (career), Korpatsch 1.8%
• Gauff averages ~3-4 aces per match, Korpatsch ~1-2
• Grass surface favors aces, Gauff's serve is a weapon
• Korpatsch's low ace rate unlikely to contribute much

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and on grass the total could exceed 7.5, though it's a close call.

• Gauff double-fault rate 8.1% (career), Korpatsch 6.4%
• Gauff averages ~4-5 double faults per match, Korpatsch ~3-4
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce
• Combined average double faults ~8 per match