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Predictions graded

Iva Jovic #16United States2Francesca Jones #104United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Thu 3 Sept 2026, 22:53 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIva Jovic · 88 places

Iva Jovic

United States

Reached a career-high No. 16 in March 2026. Her stated favorite surface is grass, and she won her first WTA title at Guadalajara in 2025.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

British player who reached the 2026 US Open qualifying draw as its third seed after consecutive WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo.

Current ranking: #104
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Jovic's ranking and career hard-court edge make her the favorite, but her recent hard-court form is shaky.

Jones's perfect recent hard-court record is inflated by weak opposition. Betting value lies in overs on total games, aces, and double faults rather than the match winner market.

Context

Jones, ranked 104, is a qualifier at this US Open and has built her recent success on clay, but her current hard-court form is spotless.
Jones has won all four hard-court matches in her last 15, including three qualifying wins at this tournament, while Jovic has lost two of her last five on hard courts. This contrast suggests Jones may be more comfortable on the surface right now, though her wins came against lower-ranked opponents.
- Jones's last 15 hard-court record is 4-0 (100%), with wins over Linette, Garland, Barthel, and Brancaccio.
- Jovic's last 15 hard-court record is 3-2 (60%), with losses to Bouzkova and Korneeva.
- Jones's hard-court wins include three qualifying matches at this US Open, showing current comfort on the surface.
Jovic, ranked 14, is the higher seed but has faced a mixed level of opposition in her recent hard-court matches.
Jovic's hard-court losses were to Bouzkova (ranked 26) and Korneeva (ranked 69), while her wins came against Frech (41), Korpatsch (48), and Linette (82). Jones, though ranked 104, is in strong form, so Jovic may not have the same margin for error as in her wins.
- Jovic's last five hard-court matches: wins over Frech (41), Korpatsch (48), Linette (82); losses to Bouzkova (26), Korneeva (69).
- Jones's current ranking is 104, but she has won 14 of her last 15 matches overall.
Jones entered the main draw through qualifying, so she has had a busier schedule at this tournament.
Jones has played three qualifying matches, including a three-set win over Barthel, while Jovic had a straight-set win in the first round. This extra workload could be a factor if the match goes long, though Jones has shown resilience in her recent matches.
- Jones's US Open matches: 6-3 6-4 vs Brancaccio, 7-6(3) 1-6 6-2 vs Barthel, 6-4 6-1 vs Garland.
- Jovic's US Open match: 7-5 6-3 vs Frech.
- Jones's average match duration in her last 15 is 93.1 minutes, but her qualifying matches may have added fatigue.
Jovic is the No. 14 seed and Jones came through qualifying, so Jovic enters with a higher ranking and a direct main-draw path, while Jones has already played three matches this week.
- The match is listed as a second-round US Open meeting on 3 September at Stadium 17 on hard court.
- Jovic is seeded No. 14 and Jones reached the main draw through qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe match centrewww.lequipe.fr · 3 Sep 2026WTA US Open qualifying reportwww.wtatennis.com · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Iva Jovic

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Despite Jovic's higher ranking, the model's 62% estimate is far below the 87% implied by the odds, making this a negative-value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Jovic's higher ranking and stronger career hard-court baseline outweigh Jones's recent lower-level winning streak, though Jones's perfect recent hard-court record adds uncertainty.
- Jovic ranking 14 vs Jones ranking 104
- Jovic last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Jones 14-1 (93.3%)
- Jovic hard-court last 15 record 3-2 (60%) vs Jones 4-0 (100%)
- Jovic career hard-court wins 73 vs Jones 44
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 21 games, and the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Jovic last 15 average games per match 21.5 (322 games / 15 matches)
- Jones last 15 average games per match 20.3 (305 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often extend beyond 9 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Jovic last 15 first-set average games 9.7 (based on parsed sets)
- Jones last 15 first-set average games 9.3 (based on parsed sets)
- Both players have played several tiebreaks and 7-5 sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic's slightly better first-set conversion and comparable serve numbers give her a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Jovic first-set win conversion career 91%
- Jones first-set win conversion career 88%
- Jovic last 15 first-serve points won 66.6% vs Jones 66.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players suggest a total above 3.5 aces is likely in a best-of-three match.
- Jovic last 15 aces per match 2.2
- Jones last 15 aces per match 1.5
- Combined average aces per match 3.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2.5 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults a likely outcome.
- Jovic last 15 double faults per match 2.6
- Jones last 15 double faults per match 3.6
- Combined average double faults per match 6.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Iva Jovic has been highly reliable when projected to win

Iva Jovic has fulfilled 7 of 9 recent win projections, a 78% success rate. Her average estimated probability in those matches was 61.2%, with an expected 5.5 wins, so she has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 62% sits within her historical range of 53% to 65%.

Recent evidence for Iva Jovic9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·58%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

58%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

62%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

10 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

Previous match context available

Iva Jovic

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#26Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-3#48Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 6-4#69Alina Korneeva

6-3 7-5#82Magda Linette

4-6 6-3 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 3-6 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#83Tatjana Maria

7-6(1) 6-0#44Jaqueline Cristian

6-2 6-2#70Emma Raducanu

6-2 3-6 6-3#10Amanda Anisimova

6-2 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-4#85Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-4#13Naomi Osaka

6-0 6-3#27Emma Navarro

Francesca Jones

14W 1L

6-4 1-6 6-3#82Magda Linette 6-4 6-1#202Joanna Garland

7-6(3) 1-6 6-2#205Mona Barthel

6-3 6-4#189Nuria Brancaccio

7-6(5) ret.#107Kaitlin Quevedo

6-1 6-2#247Alice Rame

7-5 6-3#364Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-0 1-6 6-0#297Chloe Paquet

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#141Fiona Ferro

6-3 6-4#219Alevtina Ibragimova

4-6 6-3 6-2#217Jennifer Ruggeri

6-3 6-2#322Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 6-2#227Darya Astakhova

6-3 6-1#135Lucia Bronzetti

2-6 6-1 6-1#325Martina Trevisan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IJIva JovicJovic

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesca JonesJonesFJ

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Iva Jovic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1558.3%+7.2pp65.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1566.6%—66.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1549.8%+1.9pp51.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/152.2+0.71.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.61.0 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1544.7%+5.7pp50.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1552.8%+1.0pp53.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1552.7%+4.9pp57.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1552.2%+3.6pp55.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+7.2pp65.5%

66.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15—66.0%

49.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.9pp51.7%

2.2Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.71.5

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.0 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

44.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+5.7pp50.4%

Pressure · 0–2

52.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+1.0pp53.8%

52.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+4.9pp57.6%

Points · 0–1

52.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.6pp55.8%