PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Pedro Vives Marcos #531Spain2Alejandro Moro Canas #235Spain1

Sets 6-3 · 5-7 · 7-6Fri 4 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Moro Canas · 296 places

Pedro Vives Marcos

Spain

His singles career-high ranking was No. 463 in November 2025. He is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #531
Peak ranking: #463 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

Moro Canas, 25, is a right-hander and lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 142 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #235
Peak ranking: #142 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Pedro Vives Marcos has a strong recent clay form edge (12-3 vs 2-2) and better return stats, making him a value pick at 2.90 despite losing the previous H2H.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games also offering value. Other markets are lower confidence and should be avoided or played cautiously.

Context

Vives Marcos, ranked 538, is a clay-court specialist with 113 career wins on the surface. He has played exclusively on clay in his last 15 matches.
His 80% win rate in that sample, including wins over higher-ranked opponents like Roberto Carballes Baena, suggests he is comfortable in these conditions. Moro Canas, ranked 238, has a 53% overall win rate in his last 15 and only 50% on clay in four matches, so the surface may not separate them as much as the recent results indicate.
- Vives Marcos is 12-3 in his last 15 matches, all on clay.
- Moro Canas is 8-7 in his last 15 matches, with a 2-2 record on clay in that span.
- Vives Marcos beat Roberto Carballes Baena (ranked 209) in his current tournament run.
Pedro Vives Marcos, the ATP No. 538 right-hander, came through qualifying in Porto and has won four of his last five tracked matches.
He has already played four matches this week, including a 2-hour-21-minute qualifying opener on 30 August. That extra court time could leave him less fresh than Alejandro Moro Canas, who entered the main draw directly.
- The Porto results list Vives Marcos as a qualifier and record his 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 qualifying win on 30 August in 2 hours 21 minutes.
- The draw records his subsequent main-draw progression to the quarter-final.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-08-31T12:05:00.000Z against Roberto Carballes Baena ended by retirement; the stored result was W.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — CT Porto Cup resultswww.atptour.com · 31 Aug 2026Porto 2 2026 singles drawwww.lequipe.fr · 3 Sep 2026
The two players met once before, in a Challenger event on clay in 2025.
Moro Canas came from a set down to win 6-7(1), 7-5, 6-2. That result is over a year old, but it shows he can handle Vives Marcos on this surface, and the memory of that win may give him confidence in a tight quarter-final.
- H2H: Moro Canas defeated Vives Marcos 6-7(1), 7-5, 6-2 on clay in August 2025.
- Moro Canas won 50% of break points in that match compared to Vives Marcos' 33%.
Alejandro Moro Canas, the ATP No. 238 right-hander, reached the semi-finals at this Porto clay event in 2025.
He is back in the quarter-finals this year after beating the third seed in straight sets. That same-event run gives him useful familiarity with the conditions, but it does not change the current matchup.
- His 2025 Porto clay run included three wins before a three-set semi-final loss.
- His current event run reached the quarter-final after a straight-set win over the third seed.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/BucharestAlejandro Moro Canas tournament resultswww.tennisabstract.com · 30 Aug 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Vives Marcos has a stronger recent clay form and return profile, though H2H and ranking favor Moro Canas.
- Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) vs 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: 12-3 (80%) vs 2-2 (50%)
- Last 15 return points won: 42.8% vs 37.0%
- H2H: Moro Canas won 6-7(1) 7-5 6-2 in Aug 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPedro Vives MarcosEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high average total games in recent matches, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Vives Marcos last 15 average games per match: 23.6
- Moro Canas last 15 average games per match: 25.2
- H2H match had 33 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close sets, and the H2H first set was a tiebreak.
- Vives Marcos last 15 average set games: 10.4
- Moro Canas last 15 average set games: 10.2
- H2H first set went to tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vives Marcos has a slight edge in first-set performance based on career conversion and recent set dominance.
- Vives Marcos first set win conversion career: 89%
- Moro Canas first set win conversion career: 82%
- Vives Marcos last 15 sets won: 70.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPedro Vives MarcosEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Moro Canas's higher ace rate pushes the combined total near the over line.
- Vives Marcos last 15 aces per match: 2.1
- Moro Canas last 15 aces per match: 5.7
- Combined average: 7.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages slightly exceed the over line.
- Vives Marcos last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Moro Canas last 15 double faults per match: 1.8
- Combined average: 4.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(1) 7-5 6-2Pedro Vives Marcos#538vAlejandro Moro Canas#238Aug 21, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Pedro Vives Marcos

12W 3L

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#430Niels Visker 7-6(3) 6-4#373Eduardo Ribeiro

7-5 2-2 ret.#209Roberto Carballes Baena

5-7 6-2 6-2—Joao Silva

6-2 7-5#676Pedro Rodenas

6-2 7-5—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-7(9) 6-2 6-1—Aren Baybars

4-6 6-3 7-5—Sergi Fita Juan

7-5 6-2—Tomas Torres Remon

6-4 6-2#615Branko Djuric

6-4 7-5#866Yanaki Milev

6-4 7-6(4)—Lorenzo Comino

4-6 6-4 7-6(2)#859Ali Yazdani

6-4 6-2#896Andrea Fiorentini

6-3 7-5—Guglielmo Verdese

Alejandro Moro Canas

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

3-6 6-1 6-4#665Tiago Cacao

6-3 6-4#174Remy Bertola

6-4 5-7 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

6-4 7-6(3)#252Felix Balshaw

6-4 7-6(5)#523Alexander Donski

7-5 6-4#409Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-0#225Oliver Crawford

6-3 6-4#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#422Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(6) 6-3#150Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 7-6(3)#267Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#119Francisco Comesana

1-6 7-6(2) 6-4#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-7(1) 6-1 6-1#217Kimmer Coppejans

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPedro Vives MarcosMarcos

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Alejandro Moro CanasCanasAC

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.5%+4.2pp64.7%

1st Serve Won68.0%—68.6%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+2.1pp55.9%

Aces / Match2.1+3.65.7

Double Faults / Match2.91.1 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.8%+5.8pp37.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.8%+9.9pp31.9%

Break Pts Saved64.4%+0.8pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+2.0pp50.3%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

60.5%1st Serve In+4.2pp64.7%

68.0%1st Serve Won—68.6%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp55.9%

2.1Aces / Match+3.65.7

2.9Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

42.8%Return Pts Won+5.8pp37.0%

Pressure · 2–0

41.8%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp31.9%

64.4%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+2.0pp50.3%