ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Nedic #246Bosnia & Herzegovina1Johan Nikles #420Switzerland2

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 1-6Fri 4 Sept 2026, 12:15 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions5–271%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 174 places

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Age 21 and currently ranked No. 246, with a published career high of No. 237. Most of his recorded matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #246
Peak ranking: #237
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Johan Nikles

Switzerland

Swiss player whose stated preferred surface is clay. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 256 in July 2022.

Current ranking: #420
Peak ranking: #256 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Nedic has a slight edge due to ranking and serve, but the odds are too short for value.

Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and Nikles +3.5 games as a solid angle. Low aces and double faults are likely.

Context

Nedic, 257th, is a clay-court specialist with a career 67% win rate on the surface and has been playing almost exclusively on clay this season.
His recent run includes a three-set win over Stefanos Sakellaridis (ranked 136) and a straight-sets win over Kilian Feldbausch, showing he can handle higher-ranked opponents. However, his last-15 return points won is only 40.1%, which could be a weakness against Nikles' decent return game.
- Nedic has won 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay.
- He beat Stefanos Sakellaridis (ranked 136) in three sets on September 1.
- His last-15 first serve points won is 63.5% and break points saved is 63.2%.
- His last-15 return points won is 40.1%, which is below average.
Nikles, 424th, has a career 59% win rate and has played most of his tennis on clay, with 244 career clay wins.
His recent wins include a straight-sets victory over Filip Cristian Jianu (ranked 269), but his last-15 first serve in is only 59.5% and second serve points won is 48.3%, both lower than Nedic's. This could give Nedic more opportunities on return, though Nikles' return points won is slightly better at 43%.
- Nikles has won 4 consecutive matches on clay.
- He beat Filip Cristian Jianu (ranked 269) 6-1 6-3 on September 3.
- His last-15 first serve in is 59.5% and second serve points won is 48.3%.
- His last-15 return points won is 43%, slightly better than Nedic's 40.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Andrej Nedic

1.18fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Nedic's higher ranking and slightly better serve metrics give him a modest edge, but the quoted odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Nedic's higher ranking and slightly better serve metrics give him a modest edge, though recent form is similar.
- Ranking: Nedic 257 vs Nikles 424
- Last 15 on clay: Nedic 8-7, Nikles 8-7
- Nedic last 5: 4-1, Nikles last 5: 4-1
- Nedic first serve points won 63.5% vs Nikles 62.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21 games, and their balanced stats suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Nedic last 15 average games per match: 21.3
- Nikles last 15 average games per match: 21.6
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 9.5 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Nedic last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Nikles last 15 first set average games: 9.5
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nikles' recent competitiveness suggests he can stay within 3.5 games of Nedic.
- Nedic last 15 games won percentage: 51.6%
- Nikles last 15 games won percentage: 49.4%
- Nikles has kept matches close against similar opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJohan Nikles +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nedic's slightly stronger serve and similar first-set conversion rates support a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Nedic first set win conversion 88% career
- Nikles first set win conversion 87% career
- Nedic first serve points won 63.5% vs Nikles 62.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low ace counts, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Nedic aces per match last 15: 1.6
- Nikles aces per match last 15: 1.2
- Combined average aces per match: 2.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low double fault counts, making under 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Nedic double faults per match last 15: 1.8
- Nikles double faults per match last 15: 1.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar tiebreak rates and competitive matches, making a tiebreak plausible.
- Nedic tiebreak win percentage career: 52%
- Nikles tiebreak win percentage career: 54%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Andrej Nedic has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Andrej Nedic has fulfilled 7 of 14 win predictions, a 50% success rate. His average estimated probability was 63.7%, so the expected number of wins was 8.9, indicating slight underperformance. All 7 missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins by Nedic.

Recent evidence for Andrej Nedic14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#249Hynek Barton2-0#238Andrej Nedic

BetBugsAndrej Nedic to win·52%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#249Hynek Barton2-0#238Andrej Nedic

Andrej Nedic to win

52%probability

Hynek Barton won

Missed

22 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#238Andrej Nedic1-2#189Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsAndrej Nedic to win·62%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#238Andrej Nedic1-2#189Tom Gentzsch

Andrej Nedic to win

62%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Missed

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#241Sumit Nagal0-2#237Andrej Nedic

BetBugsAndrej Nedic to win·55%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#241Sumit Nagal0-2#237Andrej Nedic

Andrej Nedic to win

55%probability

Andrej Nedic won

Matched

15 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#237Andrej Nedic0-2#327Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsAndrej Nedic to win·62%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#237Andrej Nedic0-2#327Enrico Dalla Valle

Andrej Nedic to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

Missed

3 Jul·Brasov - Romania

#250Andrej Nedic0-2#247Keegan Smith

BetBugsAndrej Nedic to win·72%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

Brasov - Romania

#250Andrej Nedic0-2#247Keegan Smith

Andrej Nedic to win

72%probability

Keegan Smith won

Missed

Previous match context available

Andrej Nedic

8W 7L

7-6(6) 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch 2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-3 6-3#386Laurent Lokoli

6-0 6-0—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-3#357Juan Estevez

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#406Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

7-6(3) 6-2#270Hynek Barton

4-6 6-2 6-0#145Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(2)#236Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-3#191Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#193Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#271Franco Roncadelli

6-2 6-0#267Harold Mayot

Johan Nikles

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#269Filip Cristian Jianu 6-4 3-6 6-4#414Olle Wallin

7-5 2-6 7-5#899Lorenzo Rottoli

6-2 6-4#773Kasra Rahmani

7-6(9) 6-2—Florent Lagarrigue

6-3 6-0#428Henry Bernet

3-6 6-3 6-3#235Alex Barrena

6-3 6-2#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 7-5#598Amit Vales

6-2 7-5#435Yannik Kelm

6-4 2-6 6-3—Niels Ratiu

6-4 6-4#561Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-3 3-6 6-4—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

7-5 6-1#812Walid Ahouda

6-3 6-0#799Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAndrej NedicNedic

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Johan NiklesNiklesJN

Andrej Nedic carries the stronger recent form — Johan Nikles's route runs through return.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.6%+3.1pp59.5%

1st Serve Won63.5%—62.8%

2nd Serve Won52.2%+3.9pp48.3%

Aces / Match1.6+0.41.2

Double Faults / Match1.80.4 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.1%+2.9pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.1%—45.5%

Break Pts Saved63.2%+8.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—50.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.6%1st Serve In+3.1pp59.5%

63.5%1st Serve Won—62.8%

52.2%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp48.3%

1.6Aces / Match+0.41.2

1.8Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

40.1%Return Pts Won+2.9pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

45.1%Break Pts Converted—45.5%

63.2%Break Pts Saved+8.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—50.0%