ItalyCordenons - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Nedic #250Bosnia & Herzegovina0Enrico Dalla Valle #359Italy2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Wed 15 Jul 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 109 places

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnian 21-year-old with a clay-heavy resume; his listed singles finals and titles are on clay. He reached a career-high No. 245 on 25 May 2026 and arrives in Cordenons near that level.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #245 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian player with a clay-leaning record; most of his listed ITF singles finals and seven titles came on clay. He reached a career-high No. 242 on 24 June 2024. Earlier injury-interrupted seasons are background context, not a current tournament fitness flag.

Current ranking: #359
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrej Nedic's superior return stats and fast starts make him the favorite against home wildcard Enrico Dalla Valle on the Cordenons clay.

Nedic to win the match and the first set offer value, with a 2-1 scoreline providing a high-upside angle if Dalla Valle's crowd support extends the contest.

Context

Won the first set in 8 of his last 10 completed matches, including against higher-ranked opponents like Franco Roncadelli (No. 245) and Harold Mayot (No. 199).
- Career first-set win conversion rate of 89%, showing he rarely lets opponents back in after gaining the lead.
- In his last 15 matches, he dropped the first set only twice, both against players ranked inside the top 250.
Lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against top-250 opponents: vs. Gomez (No. 212), vs. Heide (No. 141), and vs. De Jong (No. 73).
- In those three losses, he won an average of only 3.3 games in the opening set.
- His overall first-set win rate in the last 15 matches is 60%, but it drops to 40% against top-250 players.
Nedic's return points won (46%) ranks well above the Challenger average, while Dalla Valle's (40%) is below average.
- Nedic converts 50.1% of break points, compared to Dalla Valle's 42.6%, indicating he capitalizes on chances more efficiently.
- In his last five matches, Nedic created 4.2 break points per set on average, while Dalla Valle faced 3.8 break points per set against similar-level opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Nedic's superior return stats and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge on clay, despite Dalla Valle's home wildcard advantage.
- Nedic has a 27-15 clay record in 2026 vs Dalla Valle's 35-18, but Nedic's recent form is stronger with 9 wins in last 15 matches including dominant wins over higher-ranked opponents.
- Nedic's return points won (46%) and break point conversion (50.1%) are significantly better than Dalla Valle's (40% and 42.6%), giving him an edge in breaking serve.
- Nedic's first set win conversion rate is 89%, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the first set.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players trend toward longer contests, and their serve-hold abilities on clay increase the likelihood of a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Nedic's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have high hold rates on clay, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid serving and recent first-set game counts, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Nedic's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages above 63%, making early breaks less likely.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Nedic's recent pattern of fast starts and Dalla Valle's struggles in opening sets against similar-level opponents make Nedic the likely first-set winner.
- Nedic has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 completed matches, showing strong starts.
- Dalla Valle lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against top-250 opponents.
- Nedic's first set win conversion rate of 89% underscores his ability to capitalize on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's above-average ace rate on clay, combined with Nedic's modest ace output, makes over 7.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Dalla Valle averages 5.4 aces per match, while Nedic averages 2.2, combining for 7.6 aces on average.
- In their last 5 matches, Dalla Valle hit 27 aces (5.4 per match) and Nedic hit 11 (2.2 per match), totaling 38 aces over 10 matches (3.8 per match each, but Dalla Valle's higher rate pushes the combined total up).
- Clay courts typically reduce ace counts, but Dalla Valle's height (196 cm) and ace rate suggest he can still produce aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages of both players slightly exceed 5.5, making over 5.5 a marginal but supported prediction.
- Nedic averages 3.2 double faults per match, Dalla Valle 2.6, combining for 5.8 on average.
- In their last 5 matches, Nedic committed 16 double faults (3.2 per match) and Dalla Valle 13 (2.6 per match), totaling 29 over 10 matches.
- Both players have double fault rates above 2.5%, indicating consistent double faulting.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Andrej Nedic

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#162Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#204Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#238Franco Roncadelli

6-2 6-0#200Harold Mayot

7-6(5) 7-5#248Felix Balshaw

6-2 6-4#229Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 7-5#532Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-2#570Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#640Nikita Mashtakov

6-3 6-2#353Andrey Chepelev

7-6(4) 6-3#440Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-0—Jakub Vrba

6-0 6-2—Vid Mohar

6-4 6-4#668Yaroslav Demin

5-1 ret.—Luis Klaus

Enrico Dalla Valle

10W 5L

6-4 4-6 6-4#209Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#136Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#182Francesco Passaro

7-6(3) 6-1#150Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-1#369Petr Nesterov

6-2 3-1 ret.#527Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-4#726Andres Santamarta Roig

6-0 6-2#746Nikita Bilozertsev

6-2 7-5#125Sebastian Ofner

6-2 6-3#620Alexander Weis

6-3 7-5#543Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Flavio Bocci

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#73Jesper De Jong