Gonzalo Bueno #182Peru00 – 2Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #328Brazil2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Bueno's and Marcondes' recent match lengths, along with their moderate break-point conversion rates, points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Bueno's last 5 matches have averaged 21.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Marcondes' last 5 matches have averaged 23.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 44-46%, suggesting breaks but not dominance.
• In their recent matches, both have been involved in tight sets, with multiple tiebreaks and three-setters.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set data for both players shows a pattern of extended sets, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Bueno's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Marcondes' last 5 first sets have averaged 10.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 62-67%, indicating competitive service games.
• Marcondes has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 5 first sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The second-set trends for both players indicate a high likelihood of a competitive set exceeding 9.5 games.

• Bueno's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Marcondes' last 5 second sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to hold serve in second sets, with Bueno winning 61.8% on first serve and Marcondes 66.6%.
• In their recent matches, second sets have often been competitive, with several going to tiebreaks or 7-5 scores.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Marcondes' recent form shows he keeps matches close, and Bueno's wins haven't been dominant enough to consistently cover a -3.5 handicap.

• Marcondes has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches, with an average margin of +2.8 games.
• Bueno's average winning margin in his last 5 wins is 5.6 games, but against tougher opponents, matches have been closer.
• Marcondes' recent losses have been by 4, 4, 2, 3, and 10 games, with only one blowout.
• Bueno's last 5 matches have seen an average total games of 21.6, suggesting close contests.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Marcondes' high frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches and the overall competitiveness of both players' sets make a tiebreak likely.

• Marcondes has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Bueno has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches.
• Marcondes' tiebreak win percentage is 51%, while Bueno's is 53%, indicating both are comfortable in tiebreaks.
• The competitive nature of their recent sets, with many going to 7-6 or 7-5, supports a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The similar double-fault rates of both players make over 5.5 a near 50-50 proposition, with slight edge to over based on recent match data.

• Bueno has a double-fault rate of 3.3%, averaging around 2-3 double faults per match.
• Marcondes has a double-fault rate of 3.2%, also averaging 2-3 per match.
• Combined, their rates suggest a total around 5-6 double faults, making over 5.5 a coin flip.
• In their recent matches, both have had matches with 3+ double faults.