PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Francisco Rocha #832Portugal0Gonzalo Bueno #176Peru2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:15 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–280%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGonzalo Bueno · 656 places

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

Portuguese right-hander born 4 October 1999 and listed at 1.85m. The structured match feed lists him at No. 832 for this matchup, while ATP search data points to a career-high No. 324 on 13 October 2025.

Current ranking: #832
Peak ranking: #324 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

Peruvian right-hander aged 22 and listed at 173 cm. Public profile sources in this search put his career-high ATP singles ranking at No. 175 on 22 June 2026 and point clearly to clay as his best surface.

Current ranking: #176
Peak ranking: #175 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 10:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Gonzalo Bueno's clay-court pedigree and ranking advantage (No. 176 vs.

No. 832) make him a heavy favorite over Francisco Rocha in Estoril qualifying. Bueno's strong first-set record and Rocha's lack of clay success point to a straight-set win with under 21.5 total games, though the short odds offer no value. Avoid aggressive handicaps like -5.5 games, as Bueno's margins can be narrow.

Context

Bueno's career clay record: 161 wins, 54.7% win rate, 20 clay wins in 2026 alone.
- Rocha's career clay record: 24 wins in 215 matches (11% of total wins), 0-1 on clay in last 15.
- In his only recent clay match, Rocha won just 40.9% of games and lost in straight sets to Garrett Johns (ranked 382).
- Bueno's last-15 clay stats: 47.6% games won, 60.5% first-serve points won, 54.2% second-serve points won.
Rocha's last-15 record: 8-7 overall, but 8-6 on hard and 0-1 on clay.
- On hard, Rocha won 52% of games and 55.9% of sets; on clay, he won 40.9% of games and 0% of sets.
- Rocha's serve and return numbers drop on clay: 60% first-serve points won vs. 68.5% on hard, 39.7% return points won vs. 42.3% on hard.
- All of Rocha's recent wins have come against opponents ranked outside the top 300 or unranked, and none on clay.
Bueno played Wimbledon qualifying on 23 Jun 2026 and Bastad qualifying on 12 Jul 2026 before this Estoril Q1.
- His last-15 matches include 14 on clay, showing consistent surface-specific match play.
- Bueno's first-set win conversion is 84% career, and he won the first set in 4 of his last 6 clay wins.
- No long breaks or injury layoffs are reported; he is in a regular competitive rhythm.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gonzalo Bueno

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, Bueno's massive clay-court advantage and ranking gap make him the clear favorite, but the odds are too short for value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gonzalo Bueno

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Bueno's strong first-set performance on clay (84% career conversion) and Rocha's poor clay start in his only recent clay match make Bueno the clear favorite to take the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gonzalo Bueno

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Bueno's superior second-serve performance on clay and his history of closing out sets comfortably against lower-ranked opponents make him likely to win the second set as well.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Gonzalo Bueno -3.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Bueno's consistent ability to win by multiple games on clay supports a -4.5 handicap, with an expected margin around 4-5 games.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 21.5

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Bueno's clay matches average just under 21 games, and his ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opponents points to a relatively short match.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Gonzalo Bueno 2-0

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The model's 55% estimate is below the 66.7% implied probability, so no positive edge exists.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Gonzalo Bueno's massive surface-fit edge on clay (career 161 clay wins, 54.7% win rate) and superior ranking (176 vs 832) make him a strong favorite over Francisco Rocha, who has minimal clay success and is 0-1 on clay in last 15 matches.
- Bueno career clay win% 54.7 vs Rocha 24 clay wins in 215 matches (11% of total wins)
- Bueno last15 clay record 6-8 vs Rocha 0-1 clay in last15, Bueno clay games won 47.6% vs Rocha 40.9%
- Bueno ranking 176 vs Rocha 832, Bueno 2026 clay wins 20 vs Rocha 2
- Bueno break point save 58.8% last15 vs Rocha 51%, Bueno return points won 38.8% vs Rocha 42.2% but on clay Bueno 39.4% vs Rocha 39.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGonzalo BuenoEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Bueno's consistent ability to win by multiple games on clay, combined with Rocha's likely struggle, supports a -3.5 game handicap for Bueno, with an expected margin around 4-5 games.
- Bueno last15 clay games won 47.6% vs Rocha 40.9%, expected game differential ~3-4 games
- Bueno's average clay match margin: +2.1 games (139-118 in last14 clay matches)
- Rocha's only clay match: lost by 4 games (9-13)
- Bueno's recent clay wins: +5, +6, +7 game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonGonzalo Bueno -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Bueno's clay matches average just under 21 games, and his ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opponents on clay points to a relatively short match, with Rocha's limited clay experience likely leading to a quick defeat.
- Bueno last15 clay matches average 20.9 games per match (292 games / 14 matches)
- Rocha last15 hard matches average 23.5 games but only clay match was 22 games
- Bueno 6 of last 15 matches under 21.5 games, Rocha 5 of last 15 under 21.5
- Bueno's quick wins: 6-1 6-2, 6-2 6-3, 6-4 6-1 in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bueno's tendency to start strong on clay, often winning set1 by a comfortable margin, combined with Rocha's likely slow start on an unfamiliar surface, suggests a set1 under 9.5 games.
- Bueno last15 clay set1 average 9.1 games, Rocha only clay set1 was 9 games
- Bueno won set1 6-4 or easier in 4 of last 6 clay wins
- Rocha's hard court set1 average 9.8 games but clay likely tougher
- Bueno's quick starts: 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 in recent clay set1s
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Bueno often wins set2 comfortably, Rocha could adjust and make it closer, but the surface mismatch still favors a relatively short set2, though confidence is lower due to Rocha's potential improvement.
- Bueno last15 clay set2 average 9.3 games, Rocha only clay set2 was 10 games
- Bueno won set2 6-3 or easier in 3 of last 6 clay wins
- Rocha's hard court set2 average 9.4 games but clay may be tougher
- Potential for Rocha to push set2 if he adjusts, but Bueno's form suggests otherwise
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Bueno's strong first-set performance on clay (84% career conversion) and Rocha's poor clay start in his only recent clay match make Bueno the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Bueno career first set win conversion 84%, Rocha 84% but on clay Bueno far superior
- Bueno last15 clay first serve points won 60.5% vs Rocha 60% in only clay match
- Rocha lost first set in only clay match last15 6-3
- Bueno won first set in 4 of last 6 clay wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGonzalo BuenoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Bueno's superior second-serve performance on clay and his history of closing out sets comfortably against lower-ranked opponents make him likely to win the second set as well.
- Bueno won set2 in 5 of last 6 clay wins, Rocha lost set2 in only clay match
- Bueno second serve points won 54.2% last15 clay vs Rocha 46.7% in only clay match
- Rocha's hard court set2 win% 50% but clay is a different challenge
- Bueno's ability to close matches: 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 in recent clay set2s
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGonzalo BuenoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Bueno's clay dominance and Rocha's lack of clay form suggest a straight-set win is likely, with Bueno's 84% first-set conversion rate and Rocha's 0% clay set win rate in the last 15 matches supporting a 2-0 outcome.
- Bueno last15 clay sets won 45.2% vs Rocha 0% clay sets won in last15
- Bueno first set win conversion 84% career vs Rocha 84%, but Bueno stronger on clay
- Rocha last15 hard court sets won 55.9% but clay sample is 0-2 sets
- Bueno 6 of last 15 matches ended in straight sets, Rocha 7 of last 15 but all on hard
BetBugs · Set BettingwonGonzalo Bueno 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given Bueno's clay prowess and Rocha's inexperience on the surface, a straight-set victory for Bueno is the most probable outcome, aligning with under 2.5 total sets.
- Bueno 6 of last 15 matches ended in straight sets, Rocha 7 of last 15 but all on hard
- Bueno's clay matches: 5 of last 14 ended in straight sets
- Rocha's only clay match in last15 was a straight-set loss
- Bueno's superior clay ranking and form make a three-setter unlikely
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Bueno's dominance on clay and the low frequency of tiebreaks in his recent clay matches, a tiebreak is unlikely, with both players rarely going to tiebreaks on this surface.
- Bueno last15 tiebreak win% 52% career but only 2 tiebreaks in last15 matches
- Rocha last15 tiebreak win% 49% career, 3 tiebreaks in last15 matches
- Bueno's clay matches: 1 tiebreak in last14 clay matches
- Rocha's only clay match: no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates on clay, with Bueno averaging under 1 ace per match and Rocha's only clay match yielding 1 ace, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Bueno last15 aces per match 1.3, Rocha 3.3 but on hard; Rocha only 1 ace in clay match
- Bueno career aces 252 in 300 matches (0.84 per match), Rocha 442 in 215 (2.06) but mostly hard
- Clay surface reduces ace counts for both players
- Combined last15 aces: Bueno 19 + Rocha 49 = 68 in 15 matches (4.5 per match) but Rocha's hard-court skew inflates
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just above 6, and clay conditions could push it higher, but the low confidence reflects the variability and small sample size for Rocha on clay.
- Bueno last15 double faults per match 3.0, Rocha 3.1; combined 6.1 per match
- Bueno career double faults 675 in 300 matches (2.25 per match), Rocha 458 in 215 (2.13)
- Clay surface may increase double faults due to longer rallies and pressure
- Rocha's only clay match: 4 double faults; Bueno's last15 clay: 2.9 per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Francisco Rocha

8W 7L

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#820Tiago Cacao

7-5 6-3—Lucas Marionneau

6-7(1) 6-1 7-6(5)—Matisse Farzam

6-3 3-6 7-5#517Emile Hudd

4-6 7-6(8) 6-1#311Mert Alkaya

4-2 ret.#321Eliakim Coulibaly

6-4 6-7(7) 6-4—Goncalo Marques

7-5 6-4#502Karan Singh

7-6(4) 6-4#485Fabrizio Andaloro

6-2 6-3—Dominique Rolland

6-3 7-6(3)#382Garrett Johns

4-6 6-3 6-2#430Tiago Torres

6-3 6-1—Francisco Faria

3-6 6-2 3-1 ret.—Unknown Player

6-2 7-6(3)#486Patrick Schoen

Gonzalo Bueno

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(5)#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-1 6-2#220Laslo Djere

4-6 7-5 6-1#186Jerome Kym

6-2 6-3#114Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 6-3#233Frederico Ferreira Silva

7-6(4) 6-3#552Tomasz Berkieta

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#380Francesco Forti

6-4 6-1#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-3#361Tommaso Compagnucci

5-7 6-1 6-3#129Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-0 7-6(2)#263Florent Bax

6-0 2-0 ret.#249Matias Soto

6-4 6-1#783Federico Coria

6-4 5-7 6-4#352Gonzalo Villanueva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFrancisco RochaRocha

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Gonzalo BuenoBuenoGB

Francisco Rocha carries the stronger recent form — Gonzalo Bueno's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.2%+6.7pp62.9%

1st Serve Won68.0%+7.4pp60.6%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+7.0pp54.1%

Aces / Match3.3+2.01.3

Double Faults / Match3.1—3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.2%+3.4pp38.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.6%—44.8%

Break Pts Saved51.0%+7.8pp58.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.6pp48.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

56.2%1st Serve In+6.7pp62.9%

68.0%1st Serve Won+7.4pp60.6%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+7.0pp54.1%

3.3Aces / Match+2.01.3

3.1Double Faults / Match—3.0

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won+3.4pp38.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.6%Break Pts Converted—44.8%

51.0%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp58.8%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp48.9%

Francisco Rocha

Gonzalo Bueno

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gonzalo Bueno

Gonzalo Bueno

Gonzalo Bueno

Gonzalo Bueno -3.5

Under 21.5

Gonzalo Bueno 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Gonzalo Bueno (-5.5) @ 2.05

Francisco Rocha

Gonzalo Bueno

Stat Battle