Orgryte1Mjallby2

HT 1–1Thu 29 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 04:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Örgryte in 15th host Mjällby in 12th with identical 2W-6D-4L home and away splits, so the likelier shape is a tight, low-scoring game that Mjällby avoid losing rather than win.

The 1.4 on Mjällby avoiding defeat and 1.7 on over 2.5 goals ask more than the record supports. Two quotes hold: first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.48 and Mjällby to score under 1.5 at 1.7.

Context

The 27 October availability listing identifies three Örgryte absences and a further doubt two days before this fixture. That narrows the group available to prepare for Mjällby and could affect the matchday options. The listing does not establish the projected roles of the affected players or whether Tibbling will recover in time.
- A. Abukar is listed with a knee injury.
- R. Alm and W. Svensson are listed as injured.
- J. Tibbling is listed as doubtful with a muscle injury.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 04:20 · Europe/BucharestMatch availability listingallsvenskanstat.se · 27 Oct 2026
The 27 October availability listing names Dalsgaard and Stavitski as unavailable before Mjällby's trip to Gamla Ullevi. Their absence reduces the visitors' listed squad options for this specific fixture. The source does not provide expected replacements, duration estimates or probable selection information.
- V. Dalsgaard is listed as injured.
- T. Stavitski is listed with a back injury.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 04:20 · Europe/BucharestMatch availability listingallsvenskanstat.se · 27 Oct 2026
Örgryte score at a healthy 1.75 goals per home league game but have turned only two of those 12 into wins, so home advantage has mostly produced shared points. That makes a tight, draw-influenced afternoon the likelier shape rather than a comfortable home win.
- 2026 Allsvenskan home record: 2W-6D-4L in 12 matches
- Home goals: 21 scored, 22 conceded
- 1.75 goals per home league game
Their 0.13 first-half goals per game means the opening 45 minutes are usually goalless or close to it, and 0.6 second-half goals per game shows the scoring does not pick up much after the break. At 0.73 goals per game over 90 minutes, a low-scoring away display is the expected one.
- 15 tracked matches, 15 August to 25 October 2026: 7 scored, 14 conceded
- First-half goals for: 0.13 per game (2 in 15)
- Second-half goals for: 0.6 per game

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Mjallby

1.40fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 71.4%

−5.4ppshort

Two evenly matched low-table sides whose home and away records are identical, with Mjällby holding the slight quality edge and the draw covering much of the risk.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 58.8%

−1.8ppshort

Örgryte matches have been consistently high-scoring and they concede heavily at home, so three goals or more is the more plausible side of the line.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Orgryte over 0.5

1.30fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 76.9%

−0.9ppshort

Örgryte are a much stronger attacking side at home and have found the net in every recent home outing.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Two evenly matched low-table sides whose home and away records are identical, with Mjällby holding the slight quality edge and the draw covering much of the risk.
- Örgryte home record: 2W-6D-4L; Mjällby away record: 2W-6D-4L
- Mjällby away: 16 scored, 21 conceded in 12
- Örgryte sit 15th (19 pts), Mjällby 12th (23 pts)
- Örgryte form DWLLL, Mjällby LLDLD
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MjallbyEstimated chance66%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Örgryte matches have been consistently high-scoring and they concede heavily at home, so three goals or more is the more plausible side of the line.
- Örgryte average goals for 1.40, against 2.07
- Örgryte home league games: 43 goals in 12 (3.6 per game)
- Mjällby away league games: 37 goals in 12 (3.1 per game)
- Örgryte's last six: 2-2, 4-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-4, 1-1
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams start slowly and Mjällby barely score before the break, making a low-scoring first half the natural expectation.
- Örgryte first-half goals for 0.53, against 0.87 over 15 matches
- Mjällby first-half goals for 0.13, against 0.67 over 15 matches
- Mjällby have scored two first-half goals in 15 tracked games
- Mjällby's last six halves at the break: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
For both to score before the break Mjällby would have to find a first-half goal, which their record shows they almost never do.
- Mjällby first-half goals for 0.13 per game (2 in 15)
- Örgryte first-half goals for 0.53 per game (8 in 15)
- Mjällby first-half goals against 0.67
- Örgryte first-half goals against 0.87
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Örgryte are a much stronger attacking side at home and have found the net in every recent home outing.
- Örgryte home league goals: 21 in 12 matches (1.75 per game)
- Örgryte scored 10 goals across their 15 tracked matches
- Örgryte have scored in all three recent home matches (4-2, 1-2, 1-1)
- Mjällby away conceded 21 in 12 league matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonOrgryte over 0.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Mjällby's scoring output is the weakest part of their game, especially on the road, so holding them to one goal or fewer is the likelier outcome.
- Mjällby overall goals for 0.73 per game across 15 tracked matches
- Mjällby away goals for 0.43 per game in their seven away matches
- Mjällby failed to score in three of their last six matches
- Örgryte kept two clean sheets in 15
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostMjallby under 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides allow a large volume of shots and their recent matches regularly pass this mark.
- Örgryte matches average 28.9 total shots (10.7 for, 18.2 against)
- Mjällby matches average 27.3 total shots (11.9 for, 15.4 against)
- Five of Örgryte's last six games cleared 22.5 total shots
- Mjällby's recent totals: 24, 30, 33, 22, 22
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences are routinely worked and the combined on-target rate sits comfortably above the line.
- Örgryte matches average 10.1 shots on target combined
- Mjällby matches average 9.4 shots on target combined
- Five of Örgryte's last six games cleared 7.5 on target
- Mjällby recent on-target totals: 5, 6, 12, 8, 7
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side generates a big corner volume of its own, so the combined total leans just under this line.
- Örgryte matches average 10.4 total corners (3.7 for, 6.7 against)
- Mjällby matches average 9.8 total corners (4.4 for, 5.4 against)
- Örgryte average 3.73 corners per game, Mjällby 4.43
- Mjällby's last game produced 13 corners, Örgryte's last produced 7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance57%