Jagiellonia Bialystok1Wisla Plock0

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 21–7On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Jagiellonia host Wisła Płock with both defences conceding: nine in five home league games for the hosts, 12 in six away for the visitors, yet the home side have been blanked twice running.

Goals look the likelier story, and Jagiellonia avoiding defeat is the lean, at low confidence. The quoted prices for Jagiellonia to score (1.15), a first-half goal (1.25), Wisła to score (1.30), over 2.5 goals (1.62) and both teams to score (1.53) all ask more than the record justifies; none is worth backing.

Context

Wisła Płock have already won at this venue in 2026.
The March result is the freshest head-to-head evidence and shows Wisła can take three points at this venue rather than settle for a draw. Jagiellonia's home league form this season — two wins and three defeats in five — leaves the door open again. One meeting per season is a thin basis for a trend, so it informs the read without deciding it.
- 21 March 2026, Ekstraklasa in Białystok: Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisła Płock.
Jagiellonia's home split is two wins and three defeats with nine conceded, while Wisła's away split is two wins, one draw and three defeats with 12 conceded. Both rates sit near two goals a game, which is the clearest reason to expect chances at both ends. Two separate samples of five and six matches are still small, so the rates describe the season so far rather than a fixed level.
- Jagiellonia 2026 Ekstraklasa home record: 5 played, 2W-0D-3L, 5 goals for, 9 against.
- Wisła Płock 2026 Ekstraklasa away record: 6 played, 2W-1D-3L, 6 goals for, 12 against.
The European night cost Jagiellonia three goals and produced almost nothing going forward, with one of six shots on target while eight of Anderlecht's 15 attempts were on target. It leaves a three-day gap to this fixture, a short turnaround for the same squad. Whether that shows up in the legs is not something the record can answer; what it does show is a heavy home defeat and a blunt attacking display.
- 22 October 2026, Europa League in Białystok: Jagiellonia 0-3 Anderlecht, shots 6-15, shots on target 1-8.
The win was efficient rather than dominant: one goal from five attempts and only one on target, while Radomiak had 16 shots and six corners. It fits a side that has scored six goals in six away league games without ever looking prolific. Reading that as a reliable attacking base would overstate a single match; as a sign of resilience it is more convincing.
- 19 October 2026, Ekstraklasa: Wisła Płock 1-0 Radomiak Radom, shots 5-16, shots on target 1-1, corners 2-6.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Jagiellonia Bialystok over 0.5

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

−9.0ppshort

Jagiellonia score regularly on their own ground and Wisla's away defence has been breached in almost every away game.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Both sides' first-half goal rates point to roughly one and a half first-half goals combined, making a goalless opening half the minority case.

Away Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Wisla Plock over 0.5

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Wisla have found the net in most away league games and Jagiellonia's home defence has conceded in nearly every fixture.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 61.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams' league matches have averaged around three goals, with neither defence looking reliable.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 65.4%

−8.4ppshort

Neither side keeps clean sheets often, and Jagiellonia's home games have regularly produced goals at both ends.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Wisla's heavy away concession rate give Jagiellonia a solid route to at least a point despite poor form.
- Jagiellonia are 2W-0D-3L at home in the league with 5 scored and 9 conceded
- Wisla Plock are 2W-1D-3L away in the league, conceding 12 in 6
- Wisla lost 3-0 away at Wieczysta Krakow in their most recent away league game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJagiellonia Bialystok or DrawEstimated chance62%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Jagiellonia score regularly on their own ground and Wisla's away defence has been breached in almost every away game.
- Jagiellonia scored 5 goals across 5 home league matches and 5 in 6 home matches in the sample
- Jagiellonia average 1.83 goals per home match in all competitions
- Wisla Plock kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonJagiellonia Bialystok over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both sides' first-half goal rates point to roughly one and a half first-half goals combined, making a goalless opening half the minority case.
- Jagiellonia average 1.17 first-half goals at home and 0.92 overall
- Wisla Plock average 0.71 first-half goals both overall and away
- Jagiellonia concede 0.67 first-half goals per home match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Wisla have found the net in most away league games and Jagiellonia's home defence has conceded in nearly every fixture.
- Wisla Plock scored 6 goals in 6 away league matches
- Jagiellonia kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
- Jagiellonia conceded 9 goals in 5 home league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostWisla Plock over 0.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' league matches have averaged around three goals, with neither defence looking reliable.
- Jagiellonia's 10 league games produced 30 goals, 3.0 per game
- Wisla's 6 away league games produced 18 goals, 3.0 per game
- Jagiellonia's 5 home league games produced 14 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets often, and Jagiellonia's home games have regularly produced goals at both ends.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Jagiellonia's 13 competitive matches and 4 of 6 at home
- Wisla Plock kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
- Jagiellonia kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up plenty of on-target attempts, and their combined match averages sit above the line.
- Jagiellonia matches average 9.5 shots on target combined (3.9 for, 5.6 against)
- Wisla away matches average 10.5 combined (5.2 for, 5.3 against)
- Jagiellonia's home matches average 9.8 combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wisla generate a healthy corner count and Jagiellonia concede many, pushing the combined total above the line.
- Wisla average 5.9 corners for and 4.3 against, 10.2 per match
- Wisla away matches average 11.0 total corners
- Jagiellonia concede 6.25 corners per match overall
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit just above the line, with Wisla's away games tending to be the busier of the two.
- Jagiellonia matches average 3.7 yellows (1.5 own, 2.2 opponent)
- Wisla away matches average about 4.2 yellows including 2.0 for Wisla
- Wisla's opponents picked up 4 and 3 yellows in two recent league games
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%