EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Rakow Czestochowa2Jagiellonia Bialystok5

HT 1–2Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 12–20On targetOn target 4–10CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Jagiellonia Białystok (double chance) at 1.78—our 72% estimate dwarfs the implied 56%, driven by Raków's 0-point league start and Jagiellonia's H2H dominance.

Avoid the home win at 1.95, and consider Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25 for a smaller edge.

Context

Rakow Czestochowa are currently 18th in the Ekstraklasa table with 0 points from 3 matches.
They have lost to Cracovia Krakow 1-2 on 16 August, Slask Wroclaw 1-2 on 2 August, and Wisla Plock 1-2 on 26 July. This poor start puts immediate pressure on them to get points at home against Jagiellonia.
- Rakow Czestochowa have 0 points from 3 Ekstraklasa matches, with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- They lost 1-2 to Cracovia Krakow on 16 August 2026.
- They lost 1-2 to Slask Wroclaw on 2 August 2026.
- They lost 1-2 to Wisla Plock on 26 July 2026.
Raków’s Conference League play-off against Hajduk Split went to extra time on 27 August, ending in a 3-2 defeat and 5-4 aggregate exit.
The extra 30 minutes compress physical recovery before Sunday’s league match. That can constrain late-game intensity or force rotation, especially among players who completed the full 120 minutes. The claim does not identify which individuals are most affected, so the exact selection impact remains uncertain.
- Raków lost 3-2 to Hajduk Split after extra time on 27 August.
- The play-off finished 5-4 to Hajduk on aggregate.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:58 · Europe/BucharestSofascore match reportwww.sofascore.com · 27 Aug 2026Sky Sports live commentarywww.skysports.com · 27 Aug 2026
Jagiellonia Bialystok have a strong recent record against Rakow Czestochowa.
They won 2-0 away on 13 May 2026, 2-1 at home on 2 November 2025, and 2-1 away on 10 May 2025. This repeated success suggests Jagiellonia know how to get results against Rakow.
- Jagiellonia won 2-0 away at Rakow on 13 May 2026.
- Jagiellonia won 2-1 at home against Rakow on 2 November 2025.
- Jagiellonia won 2-1 away at Rakow on 10 May 2025.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have played one away match in the Ekstraklasa this season.
They beat Motor Lublin 2-1 on 31 July 2026. Rakow Czestochowa lost their only home league match 1-2 to Wisla Plock on 26 July 2026. This contrast in home and away form could influence the match.
- Jagiellonia won 2-1 away at Motor Lublin on 31 July 2026.
- Rakow lost 1-2 at home to Wisla Plock on 26 July 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jagiellonia's recent H2H dominance and Rakow's poor league start give the visitors a clear edge.
- Jagiellonia won 2 of last 3 H2H, including 2-0 away in May 2026
- Rakow are bottom with 0 points from 3 league games (LLL)
- Jagiellonia away record this season: 1 win in 1 game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJagiellonia BialystokEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rakow's relegation form and Jagiellonia's solid away start make the away side or draw highly likely.
- Rakow have lost all 3 league matches this season
- Jagiellonia have not lost away in the league this season
- H2H: Jagiellonia unbeaten in last 2 meetings at Rakow
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Jagiellonia BialystokEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams cautious early.
- Rakow led at half-time in 40% of recent matches
- Jagiellonia led at half-time in 47% of recent matches
- H2H last meeting was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Jagiellonia win is a plausible scenario given the visitors' second-half strength.
- Jagiellonia have won 2 of last 3 H2H
- Rakow often trail at half-time (13% of matches)
- Jagiellonia's away form is strong
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Jagiellonia BialystokEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring matches, and H2H trends support over 2.5 goals.
- Rakow's league games average 3.0 total goals (9 goals in 3 games)
- Jagiellonia's league games average 2.0 total goals (6 goals in 3 games)
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2, 3, 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have shown capability, and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides make BTTS likely.
- Rakow scored in 2 of 3 league games
- Jagiellonia scored in 2 of 3 league games
- H2H: both teams scored in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the match is likely to open up early.
- Rakow average 0.8 first-half goals in recent form
- Jagiellonia average 0.7 first-half goals in recent form
- H2H last meeting had 0 first-half goals, but previous two had 1+
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive for both teams, and fatigue from European fixtures may increase late goals.
- Rakow's second-half goals: 1.0 per game average
- Jagiellonia's second-half goals: 0.9 per game average
- Combined second-half scoring rate suggests over 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are near the line, but attacking intent from both sides could push the total over.
- Rakow average 3.7 corners per game, concede 6.3
- Jagiellonia average 4.6 corners per game, concede 4.4
- Combined average corners: 9.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card rates, and a competitive match could see a few bookings.
- Rakow average 1.7 yellow cards per game
- Jagiellonia average 1.9 yellow cards per game
- Combined average: 3.6 cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% vs our estimate 28% for Rakow win; the market is overrating the home side despite their poor league form.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-2Raków CzęstochowavJagielloniaMay 13, 2026EKS

W1-2JagielloniavRaków CzęstochowaNov 2, 2025EKS

W1-2Raków CzęstochowavJagielloniaMay 10, 2025EKS

D2-2JagielloniavRaków CzęstochowaNov 10, 2024EKS

L4-2JagielloniavRaków CzęstochowaDec 10, 2023EKS

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Rakow Czestochowa Relegation	3	0	0	3	3-6	0	LLL
10	Jagiellonia Bialystok	3	2	0	1	3-3	6	LWW

6pt gap between teamsRakow Czestochowa in relegation zone

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