Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Amedspor2Trabzonspor1

HT 1–1Mon 31 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 17–8On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Trabzonspor are slight favourites but the market overprices their away win (1.88 vs our 42% estimate).

Avoid the away win, double chance, over 2.5 goals, BTTS, and first-half over 0.5 — all offer negative value. The Europa League short turnaround and Amedspor's strong home form make this a risky betting fixture.

Context

Amedspor are in 9th place with 3 points from two Süper Lig matches.
Their most recent league game was a 0-2 away defeat to Kocaelispor on 24 August. Before that, they won 3-0 at home against Erzurumspor FK on 16 August. This mixed start suggests they are still adjusting to the top flight, and the loss may prompt a more cautious approach against a strong opponent like Trabzonspor.
- Lost 0-2 away to Kocaelispor on 24 August 2026.
- Won 3-0 at home against Erzurumspor FK on 16 August 2026.
Trabzonspor head coach Fatih Tekke remains in charge after the club rejected his resignation following the 4-0 Europa League loss at Ferencváros.
The board's decision preserves the existing coaching setup, so there is no caretaker-led selection or tactical reset between the European defeat and this away league match. Tekke will lead the side against Amedspor as confirmed by the club.
- Trabzonspor said Tekke decided to resign after the Ferencváros defeat, but the board did not accept the decision.
- The club confirmed that Tekke remains head coach and will be in charge against Amedspor.
- Trabzonspor lost 4-0 away to Ferencváros on 27 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:27 · Europe/BucharestTrabzonspor public announcementwww.trabzonspor.org.tr · 28 Aug 2026Ferencváros 4-0 Trabzonsporwww.trabzonspor.org.tr · 27 Aug 2026
Trabzonspor sit 4th in the Süper Lig with 4 points.
They beat Başakşehir 2-1 at home on 23 August and drew 1-1 away at Kasımpaşa on 15 August. Their away draw shows they can take points on the road, but they have not yet won away this season. This match is an opportunity to improve that away record against a newly promoted side.
- Won 2-1 at home against Başakşehir on 23 August 2026.
- Drew 1-1 away at Kasımpaşa on 15 August 2026.
Amedspor began preparing for this home fixture on 25 August, while Trabzonspor only started their build-up on 28 August after the 27 August away loss to Ferencváros.
Trabzonspor have a compressed recovery and training window, which can affect their recovery management and selection for the away fixture. Amedspor have had a longer uninterrupted home build-up.
- Amedspor’s official account said the team began preparing for the home match against Trabzonspor on 25 August.
- Trabzonspor’s official report recorded a 4-0 away defeat to Ferencváros on 27 August.
- Trabzonspor officially announced that its Amedspor preparation began on 28 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:27 · Europe/BucharestFerencváros 4-0 Trabzonsporwww.trabzonspor.org.tr · 27 Aug 2026Trabzonspor begin Amedspor preparationwww.trabzonspor.org.tr · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Trabzonspor

1.88fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

Trabzonspor's superior squad and unbeaten league start give them a slight edge, but the market price is too short relative to our 42% estimate.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Trabzonspor

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Trabzonspor's unbeaten start supports avoiding defeat, but the market's 78% implied probability is too high versus our 68% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Amedspor's home attacking output and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities support a high-scoring match, but the odds already price in a strong over probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the odds heavily favor BTTS Yes, leaving no value relative to our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Amedspor's tendency to score early and Trabzonspor's first-half defensive weakness support a first-half goal, but the odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's stronger squad and solid start give them a slight edge, but Amedspor's home win and Trabzonspor's potential Europa League fatigue keep confidence medium.
- Trabzonspor are 4th with 4 points from 2 matches (W1 D1), while Amedspor are 9th with 3 points (W1 L1).
- Trabzonspor's away record this season: 1 draw (1-1 at Kasımpaşa), showing resilience on the road.
- Amedspor lost their only away match 0-2, but this match is at home where they won 3-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTrabzonsporEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's unbeaten start and Amedspor's mixed form make a Trabzonspor win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Trabzonspor have not lost in their last 2 league matches (W1 D1).
- Amedspor's home form is strong (1 win), but overall they have 1 loss in 2 matches.
- Trabzonspor's away draw shows they can avoid defeat on the road.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or TrabzonsporEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's strong first-half home performance and Trabzonspor's tendency to trail at halftime give Amedspor a slight first-half edge.
- Amedspor led at halftime in 33% of their recent matches.
- Trabzonspor trailed at halftime in 47% of their recent matches.
- Amedspor's home match this season saw them score 2 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAmedsporEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Trabzonspor win is a plausible but low-probability scenario given both teams' halftime patterns.
- Trabzonspor have drawn at halftime in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Amedspor have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/TrabzonsporEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score and concede, and Amedspor's home attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.
- Amedspor's recent matches average 3.0 total goals (2.1 for, 0.9 against).
- Trabzonspor's recent matches average 2.3 total goals (1.0 for, 1.3 against).
- Amedspor's home match this season ended 3-0, showing high scoring at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Amedspor scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Amedspor conceded in 3 of their last 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's tendency to score early and Trabzonspor's first-half defensive weakness support at least one first-half goal.
- Amedspor average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Trabzonspor average 0.3 first-half goals but concede 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- In Amedspor's last 5 matches, 3 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited second-half specific data, but overall scoring trends suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Amedspor's second-half goal data is not directly provided, but their total goals average 2.1 per match.
- Trabzonspor's total goals average 1.0 per match, with many goals coming after halftime.
- Recent matches show a tendency for late goals in both teams' games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Amedspor average 7.8 corners per match.
- Trabzonspor average 5.7 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in their matches: 13.5, suggesting high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's high corner average and home advantage support over 5.5 home corners.
- Amedspor average 7.8 corners per match overall.
- In their home match this season, Amedspor had 4 corners, but their recent home matches show higher numbers.
- Amedspor's attacking style leads to many corners.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostAmedspor over 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's corner average suggests they can exceed 3.5 corners, but away context lowers confidence.
- Trabzonspor average 5.7 corners per match.
- In away matches, Trabzonspor's corner count may be lower, but they still generate corners.
- Trabzonspor's attacking possession (57.7% average) leads to corner opportunities.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonTrabzonspor over 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card averages, and the competitive nature of the match could push total cards over 3.5.
- Amedspor average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Trabzonspor average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.2, but red cards and fouls may increase total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Amedspor	2	1	0	1	3-2	3	LW
4	Trabzonspor	2	1	1	0	3-2	4	WD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Amedspor

L0-2KocaelisporAug 24SÜP

W3-0Erzurumspor FKAug 16SÜP

W2-0Dinamo BatumiJul 16FRI

D3-3Iğdır FKMay 21.

D1-1Bodrum FKApr 261.

L0-2BandırmasporApr 191.

D2-2ÜmraniyesporApr 131.

D1-1Esenler EroksporApr 91.

W6-1BolusporApr 51.

W3-0HataysporMar 221.

W2-0Manisa F.K.Mar 151.

W4-0İstanbulsporMar 111.

W1-0Serik SporMar 71.

D2-2KeçiörengücüFeb 281.

W1-0Vanspor FKFeb 231.

Trabzonspor

W2-1BaşakşehirAug 23SÜP

L0-1Ferencvarosi TCAug 20UEF

D1-1KasımpaşaAug 15SÜP

L1-2GöztepeAug 8FRI

W1-0UdineseAug 2FRI

L0-1Al SaddJul 30FRI

L0-3Eintracht FrankfurtJul 26FRI

W2-1KonyasporMay 22TÜR

L0-3Gençlerbirliği S.K.May 17SÜP

W2-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.May 13TÜR

W2-1BeşiktaşMay 9SÜP

D1-1GöztepeMay 2SÜP

L1-2KonyasporApr 27SÜP

D1-1BaşakşehirApr 19SÜP

D1-1AlanyasporApr 11SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Amedspor

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Trabzonspor

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4