Ceuta1Sabadell2

HT 1–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 04:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Ceuta, bottom-four and conceding twice a game, host a Sabadell side that has drawn three of four away league games and scored once on the road, so a tight, low-scoring afternoon with the draw in play looks likeliest.

Three quoted prices carry a positive lean: the draw at 3.3, Ceuta to win or draw at 1.7, and both teams to score — No at 1.95. Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is not worth taking.

Context

Sabadell's journey to Ceuta is not a single travel day: the squad leaves on Thursday morning and reaches the city by flight, coach and ferry across the Strait of Gibraltar, so the final training sessions before kick-off happen away from their base. The trip runs alongside work to replace the Nova Creu Alta pitch, which has started and keeps Sabadell on the road, making this a longer spell away than a normal away fixture. Ceuta, who play the first of two consecutive home games, have no comparable travel and a settled week, so the logistics sit entirely with the visitors.
- CE Sabadell said on 7 October that the squad would start its journey to Ceuta 'by land, sea and air' the following morning.
- Ràdio Sabadell's week preview on 6 October listed the itinerary as Sant Oleguer, Jerez, Algeciras and Ceuta, and linked the trip to the change of pitch at the Nova Creu Alta.
- Captain Urri told Diari de Sabadell on 6 October that the squad knew the trip would be long but were not travelling as if on holiday.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Hernández is a defender who is nonetheless Ceuta's leading scorer with four goals, two of them in the 3-1 home win over Real Sociedad B on 26 September, so the goal supply of the bottom-four hosts runs through an unusual source. Saturday brings him back to face the club he represented before joining Ceuta, and he has already said publicly that he would apologise to Sabadell's supporters if he scores. The reunion is genuine interest for readers rather than a competitive edge; the part that matters to the match is that Ceuta's most productive finisher is a centre-back they will lean on again.
- Ràdio Sabadell reported on 7 October that Hernández is an ex-Sabadell player and Ceuta's top scorer with four goals despite playing in defence.
- Hernández said he is very grateful to Sabadell and would apologise if he scores on Saturday.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the opening fixture of round 9, and the two clubs arrive under opposite pressure: Ceuta are in the bottom four and begin two straight home games at the Murube, while Sabadell sit seventh and a point outside the play-off places. Ceuta lost their first five matches before beating Real Sociedad B and then drawing at Castellón, so a home game against a side that has drawn half its matches is one of their more realistic chances to climb. The counterweight is that the table is still compressed in early October, and one result at this stage moves a club only a place or two.
- Ràdio Sabadell reported on 11 September that Sabadell's visit to Ceuta would open round 9 of La Liga Hypermotion.
- El Faro de Ceuta described the Sabadell and Oviedo fixtures on 7 October as two home games for Ceuta to 'asentar el vuelo'.
- Sabadell were listed seventh on 13 points in Ceuta coverage on 6 October, with Ceuta named among the bottom four in the same week's table recaps.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Anuar came back from an earlier injury to start the win over Real Sociedad B on 26 September, only to be described by his coach as suffering a new relapse days later, which kept him out of the squad that travelled to Castellón. His absence sits inside a wider spell of unavailability at Ceuta, with Toni Abad, Lapeña, Cedric Teguia, Redru and Mamah also listed as unavailable at the start of October. Ceuta had not published a squad for the Sabadell match when this research was carried out, so whether he is available again is unresolved rather than confirmed, and that uncertainty is the useful part for this fixture.
- AS Fútbol reported on 3 October that José Juan Romero analysed Anuar's new relapse in his press conference before the Castellón game.
- Ceuta's squad list for that match, published on 2 October, listed Anuar and Toni Abad in the treatment room with Lapeña, Cedric Teguia, Redru and Mamah.
- Anuar had started and been substituted in the 86th minute of Ceuta's 3-1 home win over Real Sociedad B on 26 September.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sabadell are the better defensive team and sit seventh, facing a bottom-four side that has conceded heavily.
- Sabadell have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in nine competitive matches
- Sabadell average 0.67 goals conceded with 5 clean sheets in 9
- Ceuta are 21st with 7 scored and 18 conceded in eight league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSabadellEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little in the opening half and the interval has often arrived level.
- Ceuta average 0.27 first-half goals for and 0.82 against
- Sabadell average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.44 against
- Three of Ceuta's last six first halves ended level
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away second halves have been tight and goalless, and Ceuta often finish level.
- Sabadell have conceded no second-half goals in four away league games
- Sabadell's away second halves have produced no goals for or against them
- Ceuta's second halves against Castellón and Valladolid finished level
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches keep ending level and they score too rarely on the road to separate from a home side that also struggles. Sabadell are the better defensive team and sit seventh, facing a bottom-four side that has conceded heavily.
- Sabadell's four away league games produced three draws and one loss
- Ceuta have drawn two of their last six and two of eight league games
- Sabadell have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in nine competitive matches
- Sabadell average 0.67 goals conceded with 5 clean sheets in 9
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SabadellEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little in the opening half and the interval has often arrived level. Sabadell carry the stronger first-half scoring and defensive numbers into the game.
- Ceuta average 0.27 first-half goals for and 0.82 against
- Sabadell average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.44 against
- Sabadell scored twice before half-time in two of their last six
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or SabadellEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sabadell's away games are low-scoring and their defence is the tightest part of this fixture.
- Ceuta's 11 competitive matches average 3.0 goals; Sabadell's nine average 2.0
- Sabadell's four away league games produced one goal for and three against them
- Four of Ceuta's last six matches finished under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Sabadell's defence has been hard to break down and their away scoring output is minimal.
- Sabadell kept five clean sheets in nine competitive games and conceded in only three
- Sabadell have scored one goal in four away league games
- Ceuta have kept two clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ceuta's scoring rate sits at one goal per game with little sign of a higher home output.
- Ceuta average 1.0 goals per game overall and at home
- Ceuta's league home record shows 4 goals in 4 games
- Ceuta were held scoreless in two of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCeuta under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away league record shows almost no attacking return on the road.
- Sabadell have scored once in four away league games
- Sabadell's away games average 0.25 goals scored
- Sabadell's away scoring has come in low-scoring draws
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSabadell under 1.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half goal has arrived in four of the last six games for each side.
- Ceuta's first halves produce 1.09 goals combined on average
- Four of Ceuta's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Four of Sabadell's last six matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches have been quiet after the break and their defence holds up.
- Combined second-half goals in recent games average around 1.4
- Sabadell's away second halves produced no goals
- Sabadell's second-half defence concedes 0.22 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's corner totals regularly clear ten in a match.
- Combined corner averages sit near nine per match
- Sabadell's away games average 9.25 corners in total
- Ceuta's overall matches average 7.7 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches are low-volume and cap the combined shot count.
- Combined shot averages are about 25 per match
- Sabadell's away games average 21.8 shots in total
- Sabadell's recent away matches produced 14 and 23 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 27.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches produce very few shots on target and drag the combined total down.
- Sabadell's away games average 5.5 shots on target in total
- Ceuta's last six games averaged 7.3 shots on target combined
- Sabadell average 2.25 shots on target away
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides pick up cards at a steady rate and neither fixture has been notably clean.
- Combined card averages sit around 5.5 to 6 per match
- Ceuta's last six matches averaged 6.2 cards
- Both teams average close to three yellow cards per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance53%