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SpVgg Greuther FurthEintracht Braunschweig

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 11:0017 Oct, 11:00

15Probabilities3Priced3Edges86%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 16:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Two defences that concede regularly meet with Fürth still without a league win at home this season and Braunschweig fresh from ending a six-match wait.

The match looks more likely to bring goals at both ends than control. Over 2.5 at 1.50, both teams to score at 1.50 and a first-half goal at 1.20 all need more than the record supports, and the 2.40 on under 2.5 is no better, so no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Both sides concede regularly and keep few clean sheets, so the fixture sets up as an open game; Braunschweig's reported fitness questions and Fürth's weak league home record shape the sporting picture.

Tempelmann joined in January 2025 and made an immediate impression, before his output dropped to a single league goal in 20 appearances, so Braunschweig's hope is that fitness rather than form has held him back. A fully available Tempelmann would give the away side a recognised midfield option at Fürth, where control of the middle third is likely to matter. No fixed return date or starting role has been set, and the reporting describes an ambition rather than a confirmed change, so the effect on selection remains uncertain.
- Lino Tempelmann has been at Braunschweig since January 2025 and has scored one further league goal in 20 appearances since a strong first half-year.
- Braunschweig hope to be able to rely again on a fully fit Tempelmann soon.
- L. Tempelmann started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Fürth sit 15th on six points from seven league games, with one win, three draws and three defeats, and the split is stark: one point at home against five away. They have scored three and conceded six in three league home games, including a 0-1 loss to Heidenheim on 6 September 2026 and a 1-1 draw with Magdeburg on 18 September. Braunschweig have won one of three away league games, so the weakness is a caution rather than a decisive edge.
- 2. Bundesliga standings, fetched 14 October 2026: Fürth are 15th on 6 points from 7 games, with 1 win, 3 draws and 3 defeats.
- Fürth's league home record: 3 played, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 3 scored, 6 conceded.
- Fürth's league away record: 4 played, 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 7 scored, 7 conceded.
- Home league results include a 0-1 defeat to Heidenheim (6 September 2026) and a 1-1 draw with Magdeburg (18 September 2026).
The last competitive meeting between these clubs was Fürth's 3-0 home win in February 2025, a game that stayed close until goals in the 88th and 98th minutes. Braunschweig had already beaten Fürth 2-0 that season, so the head-to-head across the two fixtures was even. Because both squads have changed substantially since, the sequence is more useful as the reference point for how these two teams have traded results than as a guide to current strength. It remains the only direct meeting available between them.
- Fürth beat Braunschweig 3-0 on 23 February 2025.
- Noel Futkeu opened the scoring in the 10th minute, Julian Green made it 2-0 in the 88th and Consbruch added a third in the 98th.
- Braunschweig had won the reverse fixture 2-0.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/BucharestMatch reportwww.welt.de · 23 Feb 2025
Braunschweig went into the October break without a win in six competitive matches across league and cup, then took a 1-0 home win over a Holstein Kiel side still chasing its first league victory. Jan Urbich's early goal settled a game they needed, and the three points lifted some of the pressure around the club. The caveat is that it was a narrow home result against a struggling opponent, so it reads as a confidence lift rather than a clear change in level before a tougher away day at Fürth.
- Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1-0 on 9 October 2026.
- It was their first home win of the season and only their second win overall.
- Jan Urbich scored the only goal in the 11th minute.
- The result ended a run of six competitive matches without a win.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 83.3%

−12.3ppshort

Recent matches for both teams usually produced at least one first-half goal.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 66.7%

−5.7ppshort

Both teams find the net regularly and neither defence has been dependable.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Both defences concede regularly and the two sides have combined for about three goals a game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Braunschweig score regularly away and face a Fürth side conceding 1.6 goals per game.
- Braunschweig average 1.75 goals across their away matches.
- Braunschweig away league record: 1 win in 3, with 7 scored and 5 conceded.
- They ended a six-match winless run with a 1-0 home win over Holstein Kiel on 9 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerEintracht BraunschweigEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves for both teams have generally been low-scoring, making a level break likely.
- Fürth's home first halves average 1.8 combined goals; Braunschweig's away first halves average 1.25.
- Both teams have often reached the break level in recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede after the break, so the second half is often shared rather than controlled.
- Fürth's home second halves average 1.0 combined goals.
- Both teams have conceded after the break in recent matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fürth's home form is weak, but Braunschweig arrive with the poorer overall record and little away authority. Braunschweig score regularly away and face a Fürth side conceding 1.6 goals per game.
- Fürth league home record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats (3 scored, 6 conceded).
- Fürth overall: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats in 10 competitive matches, 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
- Braunschweig average 1.75 goals across their away matches.
- Braunschweig away league record: 1 win in 3, with 7 scored and 5 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChanceSpVgg Greuther Furth or Eintracht BraunschweigEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves for both teams have generally been low-scoring, making a level break likely. Braunschweig have been stronger before the break on the road while Fürth concede early at home.
- Fürth's home first halves average 1.8 combined goals; Braunschweig's away first halves average 1.25.
- Both teams have often reached the break level in recent matches.
- Braunschweig average 1.0 first-half goals away and concede 0.25.
- Braunschweig scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Eintracht BraunschweigEstimated chance75%

Goals7 outcomes · top 86%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both defences concede regularly and the two sides have combined for about three goals a game.
- Fürth home matches average 2.8 goals (1.2 for, 1.6 against); Braunschweig away matches average 3.25.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Fürth's 10 and 5 of Braunschweig's 9 competitive matches.
- Fürth's last six games averaged 3.0 goals; Braunschweig's last six averaged 4.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams find the net regularly and neither defence has been dependable.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Fürth's 10 competitive matches and 5 of Braunschweig's 9.
- Fürth scored in 5 of their last 6 games, Braunschweig in 5 of their last 6.
- Fürth kept 1 clean sheet in 10; Braunschweig 1 in 9.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.50Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fürth's home goal output has been low, making two or more unlikely.
- Fürth average 1.2 goals at home and 1.3 overall.
- Fürth have scored three goals across three league home games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalSpVgg Greuther Furth under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Braunschweig's most recent away games produced very little, so two or more is not assured.
- Braunschweig scored one goal in total across their last two away league matches.
- Braunschweig managed six goals in nine competitive matches by the earlier count.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalEintracht Braunschweig under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fürth concede regularly and Braunschweig have found the net in most recent games.
- Fürth have conceded in 9 of 10 competitive matches and in 4 of 5 at home.
- Braunschweig scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreEintracht Braunschweig to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Braunschweig have struggled to keep clean sheets, especially away, and Fürth score often.
- Braunschweig have no away clean sheets in four matches and one overall in nine.
- Fürth scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches and in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreSpVgg Greuther Furth to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Recent matches for both teams usually produced at least one first-half goal.
- Five of Fürth's last six matches had a first-half goal; four of Braunschweig's last six did.
- First-half goals in Fürth's last six: 7; in Braunschweig's last six: 9.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.20Estimated chance71%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 57%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined season corner rate sits just below the line.
- Fürth matches average 11.4 corners; Braunschweig matches average 10.6.
- Braunschweig away corners average 4.75 for and 5.0 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Braunschweig's away games have produced enough shots on target to push the combined count over.
- Fürth matches average 10.8 shots on target (5.1 for, 5.7 against); Braunschweig's 11.9.
- Braunschweig away matches average 13.75 combined shots on target.
- Braunschweig's recent matches averaged 13.2 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 11.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Braunschweig's recent games have been high in cards, lifting the combined count above the line.
- Braunschweig's matches average 4.8 cards overall (2.3 for, 2.4 against).
- Braunschweig's last six matches averaged 5.2 cards including opponents; Fürth's 3.0.
- Braunschweig received five yellow cards at Osnabrück.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance57%