Bochum1SpVgg Greuther Furth1

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 16–18On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 07:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Bochum are slight favourites with a 45% win probability, but the market overprices them and the goals markets.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals due to negative edges; no clear value bets exist.

Context

Bochum are 6th in the 2. Bundesliga with 6 points from 4 games, but their home record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.
Bochum lost 0-1 to VfL Osnabrück on 2026-08-28 and 0-1 to Hertha BSC on 2026-08-07 at home. They have not scored in either home league match. This suggests they struggle to create chances in front of their own fans, which could give Furth confidence despite their own mixed form.
- Bochum lost 0-1 at home to VfL Osnabrück on 2026-08-28.
- Bochum lost 0-1 at home to Hertha BSC on 2026-08-07.
- Bochum have 0 goals scored in 2 home league matches this season.
Furth are 12th in the 2. Bundesliga with 4 points from 4 games, but their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses.
Furth won 4-3 at Energie Cottbus on 2026-08-29 and drew 1-1 at FC St. Pauli on 2026-08-09. They have scored 5 goals in 2 away matches. This away scoring ability contrasts with Bochum's home struggles and suggests Furth can threaten on the road.
- Furth won 4-3 at Energie Cottbus on 2026-08-29.
- Furth drew 1-1 at FC St. Pauli on 2026-08-09.
- Furth have 5 goals scored in 2 away league matches this season.
The teams have met five times since 2021, with Bochum winning three and Furth winning two.
Bochum won 2-1 away in the DFB Pokal on 2026-08-23 and 2-1 at home in the league on 2026-04-26. These wins show Bochum can beat Furth even when Furth have more possession. However, both wins were close, and Furth's away form this season suggests they can compete.
- Bochum won 2-1 at Furth in the DFB Pokal on 2026-08-23.
- Bochum won 2-1 at home against Furth in the 2. Bundesliga on 2026-04-26.
- Bochum have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between the teams.
Bochum midfielder E. Çokaj started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed absence removes a midfield option and requires an alternative in the central selection. The club has not named a direct replacement, so the adjustment remains open.
- VfL Bochum said Ćokaj sustained a serious structural muscle injury after a shot in the 5 September match at Dynamo Dresden.
- The club said the midfielder will be unavailable for the coming weeks while he recovers and begins a rebuilding programme.
- E. Çokaj started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 07:17 · Europe/BucharestVfL Bochum: Lange Pause für Enis Ćokajwww.vfl-bochum.de · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bochum or Draw

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Bochum's strong recent form and Fürth's home struggles make a Bochum win or draw highly likely, supported by the H2H dominance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Fürth's high-scoring recent games and attacking intent suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though Bochum's solid defence adds uncertainty.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been consistently finding the net recently, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Bochum's tendency to start quickly and Fürth's first-half defensive lapses make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bochum's superior recent H2H record and Fürth's poor home form give the visitors a clear edge, though Bochum's own home struggles and the away venue temper confidence.
- Bochum have won 3 of their last 5 competitive matches, including a 2-1 away win at Fürth in the DFB Pokal on 23 Aug 2026.
- Bochum are unbeaten in their last 3 away league matches (2W, 1D), while Fürth have lost both home league games this season.
- Bochum have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings across all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBochumEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bochum's strong recent form and Fürth's home struggles make a Bochum win or draw highly likely, supported by the H2H dominance.
- Bochum have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches (3W, 1D).
- Fürth have failed to win any of their last 4 home matches in all competitions (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Bochum have won 4 and drawn 0 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBochum or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bochum's recent first-half performances give them a slight edge, but the low probability reflects the inherent uncertainty of half-time results.
- Bochum led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Fürth trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Bochum scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBochumEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bochum's ability to start well and hold on, combined with Fürth's home struggles, makes this a plausible but not highly probable outcome.
- Bochum led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Fürth have not won a home league match this season.
- Bochum have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBochum/BochumEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fürth's high-scoring recent games and the attacking intent of both sides suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though Bochum's solid defence adds uncertainty.
- Fürth's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Bochum's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 2.2 total goals, but 3 of those 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- The last two H2H meetings produced 3 and 3 goals respectively.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been consistently finding the net recently, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Fürth have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Bochum have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bochum's tendency to start quickly and Fürth's first-half defensive lapses make a first-half goal likely.
- Bochum have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Fürth have conceded in the first half in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- The last H2H meeting had 2 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half could open up as both teams push for a result, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Fürth's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Bochum's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 1.0 second-half goals.
- Both teams have shown the ability to score late, with Fürth scoring in the second half in 3 of their last 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a reasonable number of corners, and the combined average suggests a close call around the 9.5 line.
- Fürth's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 10.2 total corners.
- Bochum's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 8.8 total corners.
- The last H2H meeting had 12 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are near the line, making this a coin-flip market with limited edge.
- Fürth's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 9.2 shots on target combined.
- Bochum's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 7.4 shots on target combined.
- The last H2H meeting had 7 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The card averages are close to the line, and the match intensity could push it either way, so no strong lean is justified.
- Bochum's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 4.6 total cards.
- Fürth's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 3.4 total cards.
- The last H2H meeting had 4 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%