St Pauli11 – 1SpVgg Greuther Furth1

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Home advantage and motivation after relegation give St Pauli a slight edge, but inconsistent form and Fürth's resilience keep confidence low.

• St Pauli won 3 of last 5 home matches (friendlies and Bundesliga combined).
• Greuther Fürth lost 3 of last 5 away matches (competitive and friendlies).
• St Pauli won the last home H2H 3-2 in February 2024.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt PauliEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

St Pauli's home energy and Fürth's occasional slow starts away could see the hosts edge the first half, but both teams' half-time records are inconsistent.

• St Pauli led at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches; trailed in 47%.
• Greuther Fürth led at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches; trailed in 20%.
• St Pauli led at half-time in 2 of last 5 home matches.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt PauliEstimated chance35%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

St Pauli's ability to push late at home and Fürth's second-half defensive lapses give the hosts a slight edge to win the second period.

• St Pauli won the second half in 4 of last 10 competitive matches (Bundesliga).
• Greuther Fürth lost the second half in 4 of last 10 competitive matches (2. Bundesliga).
• St Pauli scored more second-half goals than first-half in 6 of last 15 matches.

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSt PauliEstimated chance35%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams show high-scoring trends in recent form, and H2H history supports an open game, driven by St Pauli's leaky defense and Fürth's ability to score.

• St Pauli's last 15 matches averaged 3.7 total goals (1.6 scored, 2.1 conceded); last 5 friendlies averaged 4.2 total goals.
• Greuther Fürth's last 15 matches averaged 2.6 total goals (1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded); last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.4 total goals.
• H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including 3-2 and 3-1 results.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start quickly, with St Pauli's high first-half involvement and Fürth's solid first-half scoring suggesting an active opening period.

• St Pauli averaged 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15; last 5 friendlies averaged 1.8 first-half goals.
• Greuther Fürth averaged 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15; last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.2 first-half goals.
• H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 first-half goals.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Matches involving St Pauli often open up after the break, and Fürth's tendency to concede late supports a higher-scoring second half.

• St Pauli's last 15 matches averaged 1.9 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half).
• Greuther Fürth's last 15 matches averaged 1.4 second-half goals.
• H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Opening-day intensity and competitive stakes could lead to a feisty encounter, with both teams averaging near the over line in recent matches.

• St Pauli averaged 1.8 yellow cards per match in last 15; opponents averaged 1.5.
• Greuther Fürth averaged 1.8 yellow cards per match in last 15; opponents averaged 2.1.
• Combined average cards in St Pauli matches: 3.3; in Fürth matches: 3.9.