Paks1Gyor2

HT 0–2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 22–11On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 8–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 06:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Paks and Győr are a point apart, with Győr unbeaten away in the league and Paks scoring freely at home.

Győr look the likelier side to avoid defeat, and the draw is live given three of the last five meetings ended level. Four prices are worth considering: Győr or a draw at 1.85, Győr to win at 3.1, both teams not to score at 3.1, and no first-half goals at 4.5; three or more goals at 1.29 asks for too much.

Context

The five supplied meetings, from 1 February 2025 to 22 February 2026, ended in three draws and two Győr wins, with the 4-3 result at Paks the most recent. Earlier in the sequence came a 0-0 in November 2025 and a 3-3 in July 2025, so the series has stayed tight even when goals flowed. Paks have not beaten Győr in any of these five fixtures.
- NB I, 22 February 2026: Paks 3-4 Győr at Paks.
- NB I, 1 November 2025: Győr 0-0 Paks; 27 July 2025: Paks 3-3 Győr.
- Five meetings from 1 February 2025 to 22 February 2026: three draws and two Győr wins (2-0 on 26 April 2025, 4-3 on 22 February 2026).
Győr's four league away matches have yielded one win and three draws, with six goals scored and five conceded. That road record sits behind their third place on 15 points after nine games, one point above Paks. The unbeaten away run is the strongest single argument for them avoiding defeat at Paks.
- Standings fetched 13 October 2026: Győr away record 4 played, 1 win, 3 draws, 0 defeats, 6 goals for, 5 against.
- Győr overall record: 9 played, 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, 16 goals for, 11 against, 15 points, third place.
Paks have played six tracked competitive home matches, averaging 2.33 goals and 20.5 shots with 7.33 on target. Their home record in that sample is three wins, one draw and two defeats. That output is the main counterweight to Győr's unbeaten league away run.
- Home competitive record tracked to 10 October 2026: 6 played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 2.33 goals for and 1.67 against per game.
- Paks average 20.5 total shots and 7.33 shots on target per home match across the same six games.
Szalai has become Paks' most visible attacking asset, earning a first-time senior Hungary call-up in September. A reported seven-figure foreign approach keeps that profile in the news during the week Győr visit, but it cannot change the game itself: the Hungarian transfer window is closed, so no move can be completed. The report is also second-hand — Nemzeti Sport attributes it to Russian sources rather than to either club, and no buyer or fee has been independently confirmed. Read it as context on how Paks' leading attacker is being tracked, not as a signal about his availability or form.
- Nemzeti Sport Online reported on 13 October 2026 that a Moscow club enquired about Paks forward József Szalai in early September and was prepared to pay €2 million for his playing rights, citing Russian sources.
- MagyarFooty reported on 15 September 2026 that Szalai was among first-time outfield call-ups in Hungary's Nations League squad.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 06:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Gyor sit higher, score freely and have avoided defeat on the road all season.
- Gyor sit 3rd on 15 points, Paks 5th on 14
- Gyor away league record 1W-3D-0L, unbeaten
- Gyor average 2.07 goals across 15 competitive matches
- Gyor won the most recent meeting 4-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGyorEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gyor's strong first-half defending makes a level interval the most likely single outcome.
- Gyor concede 0.47 first-half goals per game overall
- Paks home first-half record is 1.0 for and 1.0 against
- Gyor played out a goalless first half in four of their last six
- Paks played out a goalless first half in two of their last six
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score after the break, but a level second period remains a common result.
- Paks second-half goal difference at home is +0.67
- Gyor away second-half record is 1.29 for and 0.86 against
- Paks' win over Ujpest had no second-half goals
- Paks' recent draw with Nyiregyhaza was level after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paks score regularly at home and Gyor have not won away in the league, so the home side keeps a fair share of the outcome range. Gyor sit higher, score freely and have avoided defeat on the road all season.
- Paks league home record 3W-1D-1L with 13 goals in 5 games
- Paks average 2.0 goals scored across 12 competitive matches
- Gyor sit 3rd on 15 points, Paks 5th on 14
- Gyor away league record 1W-3D-0L, unbeaten
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPaks or GyorEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gyor concede few first-half goals, so Paks leading at the break is the less likely of the three results. Gyor's strong first-half defending makes a level interval the most likely single outcome.
- Paks home first-half goals for 1.0 and against 1.0
- Gyor away first-half goals against 0.43
- Gyor concede 0.47 first-half goals per game overall
- Paks home first-half record is 1.0 for and 1.0 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostPaks or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both sides feature in high-scoring games and concede regularly, so a busy scoreline is the likelier outcome.
- Paks matches average 3.83 total goals
- Gyor matches average 3.33 total goals
- Paks home matches average 4.0 total goals
- The last head-to-head finished 4-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paks score in every match and Gyor rarely shut out opponents on the road.
- Paks scored in all 12 competitive matches
- Gyor scored in 12 of 15 competitive matches
- Gyor scored in 6 of 7 away matches
- Gyor have kept no clean sheet away from home
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams find first-half goals often enough that a blank opening period is unlikely.
- Paks average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Gyor average 1.14 first-half goals away
- Paks were involved in a goalless first half twice in their last six
- Gyor were involved in a goalless first half twice in their last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals from both sides have been rare for either team recently.
- Paks saw first-half goals at both ends in two of their last six
- Gyor saw first-half goals at both ends in one of their last six
- Gyor have conceded 0.47 first-half goals per game
- Paks kept a first-half clean sheet in four of their last six
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paks score at least twice in a majority of their home appearances.
- Paks average 2.33 goals in home matches
- Paks scored in all 12 competitive matches
- Paks scored 13 goals in 5 league home games
- Paks scored twice or more in all three of their recent home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPaks over 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner counts sit around the line with a slight lean above it.
- Paks matches average 10.9 total corners
- Gyor matches average 10.15 total corners
- Paks home matches average 9.67 total corners
- Gyor away matches average 10.5 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving either side regularly produce shot totals above the line.
- Paks home matches average 34.8 total shots
- Paks matches average 32.2 total shots
- Gyor matches average 29.5 total shots
- Gyor away matches average 30.2 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
On-target totals in both teams' matches mostly sit above the line.
- Paks home matches average 12.5 on-target shots combined
- Paks matches average 11.55 on-target shots combined
- Gyor matches average 9.6 on-target shots combined
- Gyor away matches average 9.67 on-target shots combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paks' home games are usually lightly booked, keeping the under narrowly favoured.
- Paks home matches average 3.33 cards combined
- Paks matches average 3.55 cards combined
- Gyor matches average 4.85 cards combined
- Gyor's away matches average 4.0 cards combined
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%