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JaroIFK Mariehamn

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 11:0017 Oct, 11:00

11Probabilities4Priced4Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 16:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Jaro stay in the Veikkausliiga with a draw; Mariehamn must win to survive.

Jaro's modest home form and Mariehamn's 1W 1D 9L away record point to the home side avoiding defeat in a low-scoring game. Of the quoted prices, only Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 offers anything; a Jaro win at 2.2, Jaro to avoid defeat at 1.38 and at least one first-half goal at 1.29 are all shorter than they should be.

Context

A direct relegation decider with unequal incentives: Mariehamn have to win, Jaro need only a draw, and the loser is relegated.

The final round of the Veikkausliiga relegation group decides who drops straight out, and the incentives are unequal: a draw keeps Jaro up while IFK Mariehamn have to win, so the visitors should be the side forced to commit players forward. Jaro reach the game on the back of a 1-0 win at TPS on 10 October, their first victory since July, which is why a single point now suffices for them. The counterweight is that Jaro average only 0.7 goals per game this season, so an open Mariehamn may not be punished as readily as the game state suggests.
- The relegation group's final round pairs FF Jaro and IFK Mariehamn in Pietarsaari on 17 October 2026.
- IFK Mariehamn must win to stay in the Veikkausliiga; a draw is enough for FF Jaro.
- The losing side is relegated directly from the Veikkausliiga.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Myrevik scored the only goal as FF Jaro won 1-0 at Turku PS on 10 October, their first Veikkausliiga victory since July, and that result is what leaves Jaro needing only a draw in the final round. It matters because Jaro's survival now depends on holding a tight, low-scoring game rather than chasing it, which shifts the attacking burden onto Mariehamn. The caveat is one match: Jaro's previous win came back in July, so a single goal should not be read as a sustained upturn.
- FF Jaro won 1-0 away at Turku PS on 10 October 2026.
- Jim Myrevik scored the only goal of the match.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:29 · Europe/Bucharest
The decider is at Jaro's home ground, where they have taken 13 of their 15 league points and scored 14 of their 18 goals. That explains why a draw is enough for them and why they are unlikely to force the game. Their home record still includes four defeats, so this venue has not made them dominant.
- Veikkausliiga 2026, Jaro overall: 22 played, 3 wins, 6 draws, 13 defeats, 18 goals for, 44 against
- Jaro home: 11 played, 3W 4D 4L, 14 scored, 16 conceded
- Jaro away: 11 played, 0W 2D 9L, 4 scored, 28 conceded
Mariehamn must win this game, yet their away form is the weakest part of their season: one win, one draw and nine defeats from 11 road matches, with 26 goals conceded. Their home record is much better, but it does not help them in Pietarsaari. Jaro's own modest home form is the main reason to temper this reading.
- Veikkausliiga 2026, Mariehamn away: 11 played, 1W 1D 9L, 8 scored, 26 conceded
- Mariehamn home: 11 played, 2W 4D 5L, 9 scored, 17 conceded
- Mariehamn overall: 22 played, 3W 5D 14L, 17 scored, 43 conceded

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 77.5%

−3.5ppshort

Combined first-half totals sit above the 0.5 line, but Jaro's quiet first halves temper the chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Jaro or Draw

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

−0.5ppshort

Jaro's stronger home record and Mariehamn's very weak away form favour the home side, with the draw also suiting Jaro. The one-sided stakes point to a cautious Jaro, and their home matches have often finished level.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jaro

2.20fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 45.5%

−5.5ppshort

Jaro's stronger home record and Mariehamn's very weak away form favour the home side, with the draw also suiting Jaro.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Jaro's stronger home record and Mariehamn's very weak away form favour the home side, with the draw also suiting Jaro.
- Jaro league home record: 3W 4D 4L, 14 goals scored, 16 conceded
- Mariehamn league away record: 1W 1D 9L, 8 scored, 26 conceded
- Mariehamn must win to survive; a draw keeps Jaro in the league
- Jaro won the May meeting 3-0 at home; Mariehamn won 2-0 in August
BetBugs · Match WinnerJaroMarket price2.20Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring from both teams makes a level half-time the single most likely outcome.
- Jaro home first half: 0.71 scored, 0.43 conceded
- Mariehamn away first half: 0.57 scored, 1.29 conceded
- Both sides average well under one first-half goal per game
- First halves are historically the lowest-scoring period
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from both teams makes a level second period the most likely single outcome.
- Jaro home second half: 0.29 scored, 0.71 conceded
- Mariehamn away second half: 0.57 scored, 1.43 conceded
- Both teams score well under one second-half goal per game
- Several recent matches were level after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Jaro's stronger home record and Mariehamn's very weak away form favour the home side, with the draw also suiting Jaro. The one-sided stakes point to a cautious Jaro, and their home matches have often finished level.
- Jaro league home record: 3W 4D 4L, 14 goals scored, 16 conceded
- Mariehamn league away record: 1W 1D 9L, 8 scored, 26 conceded
- Jaro have drawn 4 of 11 league home matches
- Jaro drew 3 of 7 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Double ChanceJaro or DrawMarket price1.38Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jaro have the better first-half numbers at home, though first halves in their matches are usually quiet. Low first-half scoring from both teams makes a level half-time the single most likely outcome.
- Jaro home first half: 0.71 scored and 0.43 conceded per game
- Mariehamn away first half: 0.57 scored and 1.29 conceded per game
- Jaro home first half: 0.71 scored, 0.43 conceded
- Mariehamn away first half: 0.57 scored, 1.29 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfJaro or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals3 outcomes · top 74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Jaro's very low scoring rate and tight recent totals make a low-scoring match more likely.
- Jaro overall: 0.73 scored and 1.73 conceded per game
- Jaro home matches average about 2.1 total goals
- Jaro's last six matches all finished with two goals or fewer
- Only one of Mariehamn's last six exceeded three total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.95Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Combined first-half totals sit above the 0.5 line, but Jaro's quiet first halves temper the chance.
- Jaro home first-half totals average 1.14 goals
- Mariehamn away first-half totals average 1.86 goals
- Four of Mariehamn's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Jaro's last six first halves produced only 2 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.29Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jaro's very low second-half output keeps the second-period total under the line more often than not.
- Jaro score 0.27 and concede 0.93 per second half overall
- Jaro home second-half total averages 1.00 goals
- Mariehamn away second-half total averages 2.00 goals
- Four of Jaro's last six matches had at most one goal after the break
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Average bookings sit around the line, and the survival stakes should add tension.
- Jaro matches average 2.0 yellows for and 1.75 against
- Mariehamn matches average 1.64 yellows for and 1.73 against
- Combined match average sits close to the 3.5 line
- A direct relegation decider raises the stakes
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around eleven corners, placing the total close to the line.
- Jaro corners: 6.0 for and 6.25 against per match
- Mariehamn corners: 5.1 for and 5.3 against per match
- Combined corner expectation sits near the 10.5 line
- Mariehamn's last away match at SJK had 9 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede a high number of shots on target, making the 6.5 line likely to be passed.
- Jaro matches average 4.25 shots on target for and 7.13 against
- Mariehamn matches average 2.64 for and 5.0 against
- Jaro's latest match at TPS produced 10 shots on target combined
- Both defences allow regular work for their goalkeeper
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 6.5Estimated chance68%