Eibar1Mallorca1

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 13–16On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Eibar, beaten 3-1 at Oviedo on 12 October, host a Mallorca side that has scored once in four league away games but has won seven of nine visits to Ipurúa.

Eibar's home scoring and Mallorca's tight defence make the home win the likeliest single outcome. Eibar at 2.50, both teams to score: no at 1.88 and Eibar to win or draw at 1.40 hold up; Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 does not.

Context

Both clubs are in the direct-promotion picture, so this is a meeting between two of the division's early front-runners rather than a routine round-10 fixture. Eibar are level with leaders Almería on 21 points, while Mallorca's win over Las Palmas lifted them to within two points of the automatic places. Mallorca's away form is the counterweight: across four league trips they have managed one win and a single goal, so their strong home record has not travelled consistently.
- Eibar are second on 21 points after nine rounds, level with leaders Almería and one clear of Castellón.
- Mallorca are fourth on 17 points after their 3-1 home win over Las Palmas, two points behind the automatic-promotion places.
- A win at Ipurúa would take Mallorca past 20 points in round 10.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Torre opened the scoring and played 74 minutes in Mallorca's 3-1 win over Las Palmas on 11 October, then missed the first session of the new week. His absence with a viral illness puts his availability for Ipurúa in doubt and could force a change to Mallorca's attacking line if he cannot recover in time. The club has not ruled him out, so this is a doubt to monitor rather than a confirmed absence.
- Pablo Torre did not train on 14 October because of a viral process and is a doubt for the Eibar match.
- Torre scored Mallorca's opening goal and played 74 minutes in the 3-1 win over Las Palmas on 11 October.
- Pablo Torre started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 324 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Soumahoro has been part of Mallorca's defensive rotation during their strong start, and working apart from the group on the first day of the week puts his involvement at Ipurúa in doubt. If he cannot feature, Luis García would need to adjust a back line that has conceded a league-low 0.44 goals per game. The club has given no recovery timeline, so he is a monitoring point rather than a confirmed absentee.
- Soumahoro trained apart from the group on 14 October with muscle discomfort (molèsties musculars).
- Mallorca's squad returned to work with the Ipurúa trip in mind after the 3-1 win over Las Palmas.
- A. Souhmahoro started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Arambarri was the club's internal appointment to succeed Beñat San José, and he took Eibar to the top of the table on the back of seven consecutive league wins. Monday's 3-1 defeat at Oviedo ended that run and left them level on points at the summit, making the home response the immediate measure of his side. With a promotion rival the visitors, the fixture tests whether Eibar's early-season form holds against one of the division's stronger squads.
- Jokin Arambarri is Eibar's head coach, having been promoted from within the club after Beñat San José's departure.
- Eibar won seven consecutive league matches before losing 3-1 at Oviedo on 12 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Eibar have scored in every league game and are strong at home, while Mallorca have managed almost nothing on the road.
- Eibar overall 7W-0D-3L, 2.0 goals per game
- Eibar at home 3W-0D-1L with 8 goals in 4
- Mallorca away: 1 goal in 5 matches, 0.2 per game
- Table: Eibar 2nd on 21 pts, Mallorca 4th on 17
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEibarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides have low first-half scoring, so the opening period is often level.
- Mallorca away first half: 0 goals scored in 5
- Eibar first-half goals against 0.7
- Mallorca first-half goals against 0.27
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede little after the break, so a level second half is plausible.
- Mallorca away second half: 0.2 for, 0.4 against
- Mallorca second-half goals against 0.27
- Eibar second-half goals against 0.5
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Eibar have scored in every league game and are strong at home, while Mallorca have managed almost nothing on the road. Mallorca's low-scoring away game and tight defence keep this close, even though Eibar rarely draw.
- Eibar overall 7W-0D-3L, 2.0 goals per game
- Eibar at home 3W-0D-1L with 8 goals in 4
- Eibar have drawn 0 of 10 competitive matches
- Mallorca away: 2 draws in 5
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEibar or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar start home games on the front foot, while Mallorca rarely lead at the break away. Both sides have low first-half scoring, so the opening period is often level.
- Eibar first-half goals for 1.0, against 0.7
- Eibar home first half: 1.25 for, 0.75 against
- Mallorca away first half: 0 goals scored in 5
- Eibar first-half goals against 0.7
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEibar or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Mallorca's away games have produced almost no goals, so a low total is more likely.
- Mallorca concede 0.55 per game, 7 clean sheets in 11
- Mallorca away: 1 goal scored, 2 conceded in 5
- Eibar concede 1.2 and have kept 4 clean sheets in 10
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Mallorca's away attack has been nearly silent, so one side is likely to be kept out.
- Mallorca away both-scored 0 of 5
- Mallorca overall both-scored 1 of 11
- Eibar kept 4 clean sheets in 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's defence has been the tightest in the league, limiting Eibar's scoring.
- Mallorca concede 0.55 per game overall
- Mallorca 7 clean sheets in 11
- Mallorca away concede 0.8 per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEibar under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's away scoring has been minimal all season, making two goals very unlikely.
- Mallorca away: 1 goal in 5, 0.2 per game
- Mallorca away first-half goals: 0
- Eibar home clean sheets: 2 of 4
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMallorca under 1.5Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar regularly score before half-time, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Eibar first-half goals for 1.0 per game
- Eibar home first-half goals for 1.25
- Mallorca first-half goals for 0.455
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences hold firm after the break, making fewer than two second-half goals likelier.
- Mallorca second-half goals against 0.27
- Eibar second-half goals against 0.5
- Mallorca away second half: 0.6 total goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have featured enough corners to push the total past eight.
- Eibar matches average 9.4 corners
- Mallorca matches average 9.1 corners
- Mallorca away matches average 10.2 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's matches are shot-heavy, but Mallorca's are quieter, leaving this close to level.
- Eibar matches average 30.2 total shots
- Mallorca matches average 23.5 total shots
- Eibar home and Mallorca away average about 24.7 combined
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's measured away games have produced few shots on target, favouring the under.
- Mallorca matches average 6.7 shots on target
- Mallorca away total shots on target average 6.6
- Mallorca concede only 2.64 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up a fair number of cards, and this fixture has a competitive edge.
- Eibar matches average 4.5 cards plus reds
- Eibar home matches average 5.0 cards
- Mallorca average 2.73 yellows and opponents 1.82
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance54%