Eldense1Eibar2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–0100%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 24–8On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Eibar's superior form and Eldense's home struggles make the away win at 2.50 the standout value bet, with a 15-point edge over the implied probability.

The double chance Draw or Eibar (1.40) and Over 2.5 goals (2.15) also offer solid value, while the first-half goals market should be avoided.

Context

Eibar is second in the league with 12 points from five matches. They have won four of their last five games.
Eibar has won both away matches this season, beating Celta de Vigo II 4-0 on September 14 and FC Andorra 1-0 on August 30. They have not conceded an away goal. Eldense has drawn both home matches, 0-0 against Mallorca on September 5 and 2-2 against Cadiz on August 22. Eibar's away strength could trouble Eldense, but Eldense's home draws show they can be hard to beat.
- Eibar won 4-0 at Celta de Vigo II on 2026-09-14.
- Eibar won 1-0 at FC Andorra on 2026-08-30.
- Eldense drew 0-0 at home against Mallorca on 2026-09-05.
- Eldense drew 2-2 at home against Cadiz on 2026-08-22.
Eldense is 16th in the league with 5 points from five matches. They have scored 3 goals overall.
Eldense has scored two goals in two home matches, both in a 2-2 draw against Cadiz. They failed to score in a 0-0 draw against Mallorca. Eibar has not conceded an away goal this season. Eldense's low home scoring could make it hard for them to break down Eibar's defense.
- Eldense scored 2 goals in a 2-2 home draw against Cadiz on 2026-08-22.
- Eldense scored 0 goals in a 0-0 home draw against Mallorca on 2026-09-05.
- Eibar has not conceded in away matches this season.
Josep Ferrando is Eldense's interim head coach, having been Claudio Barragán's assistant before assuming charge.
His first match in charge introduces uncertainty in selection and tactical emphasis. The club is still pursuing a permanent coach, so Ferrando's approach may differ from the previous setup.
- RTVE reported on 16 September that Eldense were still pursuing a new coach and that Ferrando, their interim coach since the previous week, had begun preparing the Eibar match.
- Cadena SER reported that Ferrando had been Barragán’s assistant before assuming charge.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:30 · Europe/BucharestRTVE Deporteswww.rtve.es · 16 Sep 2026Cadena SERcadenaser.com · 11 Sep 2026
Eibar's first-half performance has been strong, with 1.4 goals scored on average in the first half.
Eibar has led at halftime in 60% of matches, including a 4-0 halftime lead against Celta de Vigo II on September 14. Eldense has trailed at halftime in 40% of matches. Eibar's fast starts could put Eldense under early pressure.
- Eibar led at halftime in 60% of matches this season.
- Eibar led 4-0 at halftime against Celta de Vigo II on 2026-09-14.
- Eldense trailed at halftime in 40% of matches this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's superior form and away record, combined with Eldense's struggles, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Eibar are 2nd with 12 points from 5 games, while Eldense are 16th with 5 points.
- Eibar have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, including two away wins without conceding.
- Eldense have not won at home this season (2 draws) and have only 1 win in 5 overall.
- Eibar beat Eldense 3-1 in the most recent H2H meeting (Jan 2025).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEibarEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong away form and Eldense's tendency to draw at home make a double chance for Eibar or draw highly probable.
- Eibar have not lost away this season (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses).
- Eldense have drawn both home matches this season.
- Eibar's last 5 league matches: 4 wins, 1 loss; Eldense's: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or EibarEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's tendency to start strongly gives them an edge in the first half, though the probability is not overwhelming.
- Eibar have led at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- Eldense have trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Eibar average 1.4 first-half goals, while Eldense average 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonEibarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible, though not highly likely.
- Eibar have won 4 of 5 matches, often leading at half-time.
- Eldense have not won at home and have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Eibar's away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonEibar/EibarEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding rates suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, especially with Eibar's attacking output.
- Eibar average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season.
- Eldense average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
- Eibar's last 5 matches have seen 3, 3, 1, 1, and 4 total goals (average 2.4).
- Eldense's last 5 matches have seen 1, 0, 1, 4, and 3 total goals (average 1.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eldense are likely to score at home, and Eibar's defense has shown some vulnerability, making both teams scoring plausible.
- Eldense have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Eibar have conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Eldense average 1.1 goals per game at home, while Eibar average 1.0 goals conceded away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong first-half scoring record makes it likely there will be at least one goal before the break.
- Eibar average 1.4 first-half goals per game.
- Eldense average 0.7 first-half goals per game and concede 1.1 first-half goals.
- Eibar have led at half-time in 60% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eldense's matches tend to have high corner counts, and Eibar's low corner numbers may be offset by Eldense's attacking play.
- Eldense average 6.4 corners per game and concede 6.4 opponent corners.
- Eibar average 3.4 corners per game and concede 5.4 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in Eldense matches: 12.8; in Eibar matches: 8.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card averages, and the competitive nature of the match could lead to more bookings.
- Eldense average 1.8 yellow cards per game, Eibar average 2.2.
- Eibar have received 4, 3, 0, 3, and 0 yellow cards in their last 5 matches.
- Eldense have received 3, 1, 0, 2, and 3 yellow cards in their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages suggest a close call, with a slight lean towards over 7.5.
- Eldense average 3.6 shots on target per game, Eibar average 3.8.
- Eldense concede 4.6 shots on target per game, Eibar concede 3.8.
- Combined average shots on target in Eldense matches: 8.2; in Eibar matches: 7.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%