Eibar3Las Palmas2

HT 2–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 18–11On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Eibar's five-match league winning run meets a Las Palmas defence missing Clemente, Herzog and Rafa Cruz at Ipurúa.

Eibar to win is the likeliest outcome, and at 1.91 it is the best of the quoted prices; Las Palmas failing to score at 2.00 is a smaller one. Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 gives nothing either way, and over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.30 and over 8.5 corners at 1.57 give no margin.

Context

Las Palmas confirmed on 23 September that centre-back Enrique Clemente will miss around six weeks, and their round-7 preview lists further defensive absences. Juan Herzog, criticised for errors in the home loss to Burgos, is away with Spain's U-21s, and youth defender Rafa Cruz is also out, so Rubén de la Barrera must field a reshaped back line at Ipurúa. Uncertainty over Álex Suárez adds to the problem. Facing an Eibar side on a five-match winning run, an unsettled defence is the clearest route into this fixture, although Las Palmas still have senior centre-backs and the starting XI is not yet known.
- Las Palmas confirmed centre-back Enrique Clemente will be out for about a month and a half.
- Juan Herzog was called into Spain's U-21 squad and misses the Eibar and Valladolid rounds; youth defender Rafa Cruz is unavailable for both games too.
- Álex Suárez's availability is the main uncertainty for the back line.
- De la Barrera must 'reinvent' his defence after errors in the home defeat to Burgos.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Iván Gil has scored twice this season and found the net in Eibar's 2-1 win at Eldense on 19 September, part of a run of five consecutive victories Eibar take into this fixture. This is his first meeting with Las Palmas since leaving the club where he came through, adding a reunion subplot to a home side in strong form. The reunion itself proves nothing about the result, and Gil's individual output depends on whether he starts and on how Las Palmas set up a defence that is likely to be reshuffled.
- Iván Gil scored in Eibar's 2-1 win at Eldense on 19 September.
- Eibar go into the Las Palmas fixture on five consecutive victories, with Gil described as having scored twice this season.
- Gil is a former Las Palmas player.
- Iván Gil started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 278 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Rubén de la Barrera's Las Palmas lost control at home to Burgos in round six, and he has spent the build-up defending his methods and stressing the need for 'stability' and 'control'. His back line is now being reshaped because of the Clemente, Herzog and Rafa Cruz absences, so his team selection at Ipurúa carries extra weight. The coach has openly acknowledged the pressure that comes with the club's expectations. This is management context rather than a proven performance lever, and a single previous match says little about how Las Palmas will travel.
- After the home loss to Burgos, de la Barrera said his team lost control once the game was level and that Burgos punished two unforced errors.
- He stressed that the side needs 'stability' and 'a lot of control' to play.
- He defended his tenure with the line 'you have to live with the demands of a big team'.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Eibar have already produced a three-goal home performance against Las Palmas this year.
One result is a thin guide, but the most recent meeting shows Eibar scored three times at home against this opponent within the past six months.
- Eibar beat Las Palmas 3-1 at Ipurúa on 29 March 2026 in the Segunda División.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Eibar's strong home form and Las Palmas' patched-up defence point to a home win.
- Eibar have won five straight league games, scoring 12 and conceding 4 in six matches.
- Eibar home record is 2-0-1 with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Las Palmas are without injured defenders Clemente, Herzog and Rafa Cruz, with Alex Suarez doubtful.
- Las Palmas lost 2-5 at Girona in their only away defeat.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEibarEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams' low first-half concession rates make a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Las Palmas have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Eibar have conceded 0.3 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Las Palmas were level at half-time in two of their last six league matches.
- Eibar were level at half-time in two of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half goal rates are modest, making a draw in the second half the most likely single outcome.
- Eibar average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Las Palmas average 0.5 second-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- Two of Eibar's last six and two of Las Palmas' last six were level in the second half.
- Eibar's home second-half goal difference is +0.25 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong home form and Las Palmas' patched-up defence point to a home win. Eibar's no-draw run and Las Palmas' mixed form make a draw a secondary outcome.
- Eibar have won five straight league games, scoring 12 and conceding 4 in six matches.
- Eibar home record is 2-0-1 with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Eibar have not drawn any of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Las Palmas have drawn three of 10 competitive matches and one of six league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEibar or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong first-half home scoring gives them the best chance to lead at the break. Both teams' low first-half concession rates make a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Eibar average 1.25 first-half goals at home and 0.5 against.
- Las Palmas average 0.8 first-half goals away and 0.4 against.
- Las Palmas have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Eibar have conceded 0.3 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEibar or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Both teams' recent totals and attacking profiles point to a moderate chance of three or more goals.
- Eibar home matches average 1.75 goals for and 0.75 against.
- Las Palmas away matches average 1.6 goals for and 1.4 against.
- Four of Eibar's last six and three of Las Palmas' last six league matches went over 2.5.
- The last two head-to-heads produced 3-1 and 3-1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Eibar's home clean-sheet rate gives no a slight edge.
- Eibar have kept six clean sheets in 10 and three in four at home.
- Las Palmas have been shut out in two of their last six league matches.
- Eibar's opponents scored in only one of their four home matches.
- Las Palmas away matches have seen both teams score in three of five.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Las Palmas' away scoring record makes a clean sheet for Eibar less likely than not.
- Las Palmas scored in all five away matches.
- Eibar conceded in one of four home matches.
- Las Palmas average 1.6 goals per away match.
- Eibar have kept three clean sheets in four home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLas Palmas to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's consistent scoring makes a Las Palmas clean sheet unlikely.
- Eibar have scored in all 10 competitive matches.
- Eibar average 1.75 goals per home match.
- Las Palmas have only two clean sheets in five away matches.
- Las Palmas concede 1.4 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEibar to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The combined first-half goal rates and recent matches make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Eibar average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.3 against.
- Las Palmas average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.2 against.
- Four of Eibar's last six and three of Las Palmas' last six had a first-half goal.
- Eibar scored four first-half goals at Celta II on 14 September.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's low home second-half concession rate makes under 1.5 the more likely side.
- Eibar have conceded 0.25 second-half goals per home match.
- Eibar have scored 0.5 second-half goals per home match.
- Five of Eibar's last six and three of Las Palmas' last six had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Eibar's combined second-half average is 1.1.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' combined corner averages sit above 8.5, giving over a slight edge.
- Eibar's home matches average 10.25 total corners.
- Las Palmas' away matches average 9.2 total corners.
- Eibar concede 6.5 corners per home match.
- Las Palmas concede 5.0 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot volumes and recent totals strongly point to over 20.5.
- Eibar's home matches average 26 total shots.
- Las Palmas' away matches average 22.8 total shots.
- All six of Eibar's last six league matches had over 20.5 total shots.
- Five of Las Palmas' last six had over 20.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 20.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots-on-target averages and recent counts give over a moderate edge.
- Eibar's home matches average 8.5 total shots on target.
- Las Palmas' away matches average 8.2 total shots on target.
- Four of Eibar's last six and three of Las Palmas' last six had over 7.5 shots on target.
- Eibar average 4.5 shots on target at home.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's home card average and recent totals make over 3.5 the more likely side.
- Eibar's home matches average 4.75 total cards.
- Las Palmas' away matches average 2.6 total cards.
- Four of Eibar's last six and four of Las Palmas' last six had over 3.5 cards.
- Las Palmas received a red card at Girona on 29 August.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%