Malmo FF1Kalmar FF0

HT 0–0Mon 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 19–15On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Kalmar are 14th and have gone six league games without a goal, with no away win in 11; Malmö are 14 points clear but have lost six of 11 at home.

Malmö to win is the likeliest result, the 2-2 draw in July the caution. Four prices hold up: Malmö at 1.75, both teams to score – No at 2.00, no goals in the first half at 3.10 and the first-half draw at 2.30.

Context

Gregersen, a Malmö defender, was forced out of training on 8 October after taking a ball to the head and then did not train for several days. Local reporting says the problem is not a concussion and that he is in contention for the Kalmar match. Because no official confirmation of his selection exists and he has missed sessions, his availability leaves real uncertainty in Malmö's defence rather than settling it.
- Gregersen left Thursday's session early after taking a ball to the head.
- He has not trained for several days but is not suffering a concussion and is in contention for the match against Kalmar.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Kalmar sit bottom and have gone six Allsvenskan matches without a goal, a run including a 0-5 home defeat by BK Häcken on 20 September that Swedish coverage described as deepening the club's crisis. That scoring drought is the central competitive question as they visit a Malmö side with far greater attacking output. It is a results pattern rather than a statement about how Kalmar will set up, so it shapes expectations without fixing them.
- Kalmar were beaten 5-0 at home by BK Häcken on 20 September.
- Swedish coverage frames Kalmar's struggle as a continuing goal drought in a fight to stay in the Allsvenskan.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Malmö have been markedly better away from their own ground than at it during the 2026 Allsvenskan season.
Malmö's record is split the unusual way round: six league wins and three defeats in 11 away games, but six defeats and only four wins in 11 at home, where they have conceded 20. That home frailty is the main reason this is not a routine home fixture. Kalmar's own 0W-2D-9L away record cuts against it, leaving the two venue records pulling in opposite directions.
- Allsvenskan standings fetched 2026-10-11: Malmö's home record is 4W-1D-6L in 11 games, 24 goals for and 20 against.
- Malmö's away record in the same 2026 season is 6W-2D-3L in 11 games, 13 goals for and 13 against.
- Overall Malmö have 10W-3D-9L in 22 league games, 37 scored and 33 conceded, and sit eighth on 33 points.
- Kalmar's away record for 2026 is 0W-2D-9L in 11 games, 7 goals for and 19 against.
Both clubs used the international break for training and friendlies, and this Monday fixture is their return to league action. The pause separated the sides' most recent league matches from this game by roughly three weeks, which can blur recent form. It matters mainly as framing: the restart and the Monday-evening slot shape the build-up but not selection.
- Malmö's matchday guide describes the fixture as their return to Allsvenskan action on Monday.
- Kalmar said the league restart was approaching after their own break training.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Malmö are 14 points and six places above a Kalmar side that has not won away all season and has stopped scoring, making the home win the clear leading result.
- Malmö: 7W-2D-4L in the 13-match tracked window, 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game
- Kalmar away in Allsvenskan this season: 0W-2D-9L, 7 scored and 19 conceded in 11 games
- Kalmar have not scored in six successive Allsvenskan matches and sit 14th on 19 points, 14 behind Malmö
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMalmo FFEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams' first halves are quiet, with Malmö averaging just over half a goal and Kalmar's recent league first halves almost entirely blank.
- Malmö average 0.54 first-half goals for and 0.54 against per game
- Kalmar average 0.62 first-half goals for and 0.62 against per game
- Four of Kalmar's last five league first halves ended without a goal, and two of Malmö's last five ended 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Malmö do most of their scoring after half-time while Kalmar concede late, making a Malmö second-half win the leading outcome.
- Malmö average 1.15 second-half goals for and 0.54 against per game
- Kalmar average 0.69 second-half goals for and 1.00 against per game
- Malmö scored four second-half goals against Örgryte and Kalmar conceded three after the break to Häcken
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMalmo FFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö are 14 points and six places above a Kalmar side that has not won away all season and has stopped scoring, making the home win the clear leading result. Kalmar have repeatedly held Malmö level and defend in numbers, so a tight draw remains a realistic result.
- Malmö: 7W-2D-4L in the 13-match tracked window, 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game
- Kalmar away in Allsvenskan this season: 0W-2D-9L, 7 scored and 19 conceded in 11 games
- The last three meetings all finished level: 2-2 in July 2026, 1-1 in March 2026 and 2-2 in August 2024
- Malmö have drawn 1 of 6 tracked home matches, most recently 0-0 against AIK
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMalmo FF or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö lead most often among the non-draw outcomes because Kalmar rarely strike before the break and do their work, if any, later. Both teams' first halves are quiet, with Malmö averaging just over half a goal and Kalmar's recent league first halves almost entirely blank.
- Malmö average 0.54 first-half goals for and 0.54 against per game
- Kalmar average 0.62 first-half goals for and 0.62 against per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMalmo FF or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both clubs are involved in goal-heavy games and Kalmar concede regularly on the road, so three goals look more likely than not.
- Malmö's 11 home league games have produced 44 goals (24 scored, 20 conceded)
- Kalmar's 11 away league games have produced 26 goals (7 scored, 19 conceded)
- Malmö's tracked matches average 2.77 total goals and Kalmar's average 2.92
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Kalmar's six-game scoreless run makes it more likely that only Malmö find the net.
- Kalmar have scored no goals in their last six Allsvenskan matches
- Malmö kept 5 clean sheets in 13 tracked matches, 2 of them in 6 home games
- Kalmar have scored 7 goals in 11 away league games all season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö average more than two goals at home and Kalmar concede freely on the road, so two home goals is the likelier side of the line.
- Malmö have scored 24 goals in 11 home league games, 2.18 per game
- Kalmar have conceded 19 goals in 11 away league games
- Malmö have scored in 10 of their 13 tracked competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMalmo FF over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kalmar's away scoring rate and current drought point strongly to a maximum of one goal at Malmö.
- Kalmar have not scored in six successive Allsvenskan matches
- Kalmar's away league record is 7 goals scored in 11 games, 0.64 per game
- Kalmar's last six competitive matches produced one goal in total
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonKalmar FF under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö concede regularly at home, so Kalmar getting at least one goal is slightly more likely than a shutout.
- Malmö conceded in 4 of their 6 tracked home matches
- Malmö have conceded 20 goals in 11 league home games
- Kalmar's away split shows 3 goals in their last 7 tracked away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostKalmar FF to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö score in most games and average more than two at home, so a Kalmar clean sheet is a long shot.
- Malmö have scored in 10 of 13 tracked matches
- Malmö have scored 24 goals in 11 home league games
- Kalmar have conceded 19 goals in 11 away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMalmo FF to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging around half a goal before the break, at least one first-half goal is more likely than a blank.
- Malmö average 0.54 first-half goals for and 0.54 against per game
- Kalmar average 0.62 first-half goals for and 0.62 against per game
- Combined first-half goal expectation for the two sides is just above one per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Malmö's home games and Kalmar's away games both sit around ten corners, so the over is marginally favoured.
- Malmö average 5.08 corners for and 4.58 against per game
- Kalmar average 3.75 corners for and 5.75 against per game
- Kalmar's away split shows 6.5 opponent corners per game alongside their own 4.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Malmö's home on-target volume and Kalmar's habit of allowing attempts put nine combined shots on target just on the right side.
- Malmö average 5.08 shots on target and 3.17 faced per game
- Kalmar average 2.92 shots on target and 4.83 faced per game
- Malmö average 6.0 shots on target in their 6 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kalmar pick up very few cards and are unlikely to be drawn into a physical contest on the road.
- Kalmar average 0.58 yellow cards per game and 0.83 in their away split
- Combined card average from Kalmar's matches is 2.5 per game
- Malmö's own combined figure is 3.83, showing the two teams' matches differ sharply
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%