AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Malmo FF0Djurgarden3

HT 0–1Mon 24 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 11–14On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Djurgården's strong away form and last season's win at Eleda Stadion give them a slight edge, but Malmö's new coach adds uncertainty.

The only clear value is on second-half goals over 1.5 at 2.10 (+7.4 point edge); most other markets are efficiently priced with no betting edge.

Context

Helstrup became Malmö head coach on 30 June.
- He replaced interim Guillermo Molins after Miguel Ángel Ramírez was dismissed in May.
- Malmö's early-season home struggles (3W-0D-5L) may not reflect the current setup.
Malmö home record: 3W-0D-5L, 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 home matches.
- Djurgården away record: 4W-1D-2L, 11 goals scored, 7 conceded in 7 away matches.
- Djurgården won 1-0 at Eleda Stadion in September 2025.
Djurgården leading at half time in 53% of matches.
- Malmö trailing at half time in 53% of matches.
- Djurgården first half goal difference: +0.6 per game.
Malmö won 1-0 at Djurgården in April 2026.
- Djurgården won 1-0 at Malmö in September 2025.
- Malmö won 1-0 at Djurgården in March 2025 and 4-0 at home in September 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Djurgarden

2.40fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 41.7%

0.0ppshort

Djurgården's away record (4W-1D-2L) is stronger than Malmö's home record (3W-0D-5L), and they won the last meeting at this venue.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Malmo FF or Draw

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Malmö's strong H2H record and home advantage, despite recent home struggles, make them likely to avoid defeat.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Djurgarden

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

−9.1ppshort

Djurgården's strong first-half record and Malmö's struggles early make Djurgården or draw the likely half-time outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Malmo home games average 4.5 total goals, but the odds heavily favor over 2.5, leaving no value despite the high-scoring trend.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Djurgarden's stronger away form and Malmo's poor home record, combined with the recent H2H away win, give Djurgarden a slight edge despite Malmo's overall H2H dominance.
- Djurgarden away record: 4W-1D-2L, 11 goals scored, 7 conceded in 7 away matches
- Malmo home record: 3W-0D-5L, 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 home matches
- Last H2H at Malmo: Djurgarden won 1-0 (Sep 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDjurgardenEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo's strong H2H record and home advantage, despite recent home struggles, make them likely to avoid defeat.
- Malmo have won 3 of last 4 H2H meetings
- Malmo overall record: 8W-2D-7L, 32 goals scored
- Djurgarden away record: 4W-1D-2L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMalmo FF or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Djurgarden's strong first-half performances and Malmo's tendency to trail at the break suggest Djurgarden could lead at half time.
- Djurgarden leading at half time in 53% of matches
- Malmo trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Djurgarden first half goal difference: +0.6 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDjurgardenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Malmo's second-half scoring and potential tactical adjustments could see them edge the second period.
- Malmo have scored 1.0 goals per second half
- Djurgarden have conceded 0.5 goals per second half
- Malmo often improve after half time under new coach
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMalmo FFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Djurgarden's superior away form could produce this outcome, but it remains a low-probability exact result.
- Djurgarden have drawn at half time in 27% of matches
- Djurgarden have won 50% of matches overall
- Malmo have drawn at half time in 27% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DjurgardenEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Djurgarden's ability to dominate away matches could lead to winning both halves, but it is a rare occurrence.
- Djurgarden have led at half time and won in 4 of 16 matches
- Malmo have trailed at half time and lost in 5 of 17 matches
- Djurgarden away record: 4 wins, 3 by 2+ goals
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonDjurgardenEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Djurgarden's strong first-half record and Malmo's struggles early make Djurgarden or draw the likely half-time outcome.
- Djurgarden leading at half time in 53% of matches
- Malmo trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Djurgarden first half goal difference: +0.6
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDjurgarden or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo's home games have been high-scoring, and both teams have shown attacking intent, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Malmo home matches average 4.5 total goals (20 scored, 16 conceded in 8 games)
- Djurgarden away matches average 2.57 total goals (11 scored, 7 conceded in 7 games)
- Malmo recent form: 1.9 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Malmo's home games frequently see both teams find the net.
- Malmo have scored in 14 of 17 league matches
- Djurgarden have scored in 13 of 16 league matches
- Malmo home games: both teams scored in 6 of 8 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, but the probability is tempered by the possibility of a cautious start.
- Malmo first half goals: 0.9 per game, first half conceded: 1.1
- Djurgarden first half goals: 1.3 per game, first half conceded: 0.7
- Combined first half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as teams push for a result, and both teams have shown ability to score after the break.
- Malmo second half goals: 1.0 per game (1.9 total - 0.9 first half)
- Djurgarden second half goals: 0.8 per game (2.1 total - 1.3 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown first-half scoring ability, but the probability is moderate due to defensive solidity at times.
- Malmo first half goals: 0.9, first half conceded: 1.1
- Djurgarden first half goals: 1.3, first half conceded: 0.7
- Both teams scored in first half in 3 of Malmo's last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, especially Djurgarden, making over 9.5 corners a plausible outcome.
- Malmo average corners: 4.4 per game, opponent corners: 5.3
- Djurgarden average corners: 7.0 per game, opponent corners: 4.3
- Combined average corners: 10.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are capable of testing the goalkeeper, with Djurgarden particularly strong in this metric.
- Malmo average shots on target: 4.7 per game, opponent: 4.9
- Djurgarden average shots on target: 6.5 per game, opponent: 3.9
- Combined average shots on target: 10.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 40% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate for Djurgården; the price already reflects the directional read and Malmö's home struggles.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-1Djurgardens IFvMalmo FFApr 17, 2026ALL

L0-1Malmo FFvDjurgardens IFSep 20, 2025ALL

W0-1Djurgardens IFvMalmo FFMar 29, 2025ALL

W4-0Malmo FFvDjurgardens IFSep 1, 2024ALL

D1-1Malmo FFvDjurgardens IFMay 1, 2024SVE

Malmo FF: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Malmo FF	17	8	2	7	32-27	26	WLWLD
6	Djurgarden	16	8	2	6	34-19	26	LLWWD

Recent Form

Malmo FF

W1-0GaisAug 16ALL

L1-2Degerfors IFAug 9ALL

W2-1IF BrommapojkarnaAug 2ALL

L1-2IF ElfsborgJul 26ALL

D2-2Kalmar FFJul 20ALL

W4-0IFK GoteborgJul 12ALL

W1-0Degerfors IFJul 4ALL

D2-2FC MidtjyllandJun 26FRI

W5-2HalmstadMay 30ALL

L2-3Vasteras SK FKMay 24ALL

L1-4Hammarby FFMay 17ALL

L2-3BK HackenMay 10ALL

L2-3Mjallby AIFMay 3ALL

W1-0AIK StockholmApr 27ALL

L2-3SiriusApr 23ALL

Djurgarden

L1-3AIK StockholmAug 16ALL

L0-1Vasteras SK FKAug 10ALL

W6-0Vasteras SK FKAug 3ALL

W1-0Degerfors IFJul 25ALL

D0-0Orgryte ISJul 20ALL

W3-0HalmstadJul 13ALL

W4-2BK HackenJul 6ALL

D1-1SiriusJun 26FRI

L1-2IF BrommapojkarnaMay 22ALL

L2-3SiriusMay 18ALL

W4-2AIK StockholmMay 10ALL

W6-0IFK GoteborgMay 4ALL

D1-1Hammarby FFApr 26ALL

L1-2IF ElfsborgApr 22ALL

L0-1Malmo FFApr 17ALL

Squad & Injuries

Malmo FF

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Djurgarden

24 available

Attackers4

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Djurgarden

Malmo FF or Draw

Draw or Djurgarden

Over 2.5

Yes

Result4 of 7 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Malmo FF

Djurgarden

Squad & Injuries

Malmo FF

Djurgarden