Kalmar FF0Hacken5

HT 0–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 10–13On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

The only marginal value is on Double Chance: Draw or Hacken at 1.40, with a 72% model probability versus 71.4% implied.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals as they are priced too short. Monitor Hacken goalkeeper Berisha's availability before betting.

Context

Kalmar FF are 13th in Allsvenskan with 19 points from 21 matches, only above the relegation playoff spot on goal difference.
Their recent league form is poor: they lost 0-1 to IF Elfsborg on 13 September, 0-1 to Djurgardens IF on 7 September, and 0-1 to Halmstad on 29 August. They have not won in the league since 25 July. This run leaves them under pressure to get a result at home, but their home record is better with five wins in ten matches.
- Kalmar FF have lost four of their last five Allsvenskan matches (LLLDL).
- They are 13th with 19 points, level with 14th-placed Degerfors IF who occupy the relegation playoff spot.
- Their last league win was 2-1 at home to Mjallby AIF on 25 July 2026.
Hacken are sixth in Allsvenskan with 33 points from 21 matches, five points behind third-placed Hammarby FF.
They drew 1-1 at home to Mjallby AIF on 11 September and 0-0 away to GAIS on 5 September. Before that they lost 1-3 at home to Vasteras SK FK on 29 August. Their away form is solid with four wins, four draws and two losses in ten away games.
- Hacken drew 1-1 with Mjallby AIF on 11 September and 0-0 with GAIS on 5 September.
- They are 6th with 33 points, five points behind 3rd place.
- Their away record is 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches.
Kalmar kept nine starters across their 7 September and 13 September league matches, changing only central midfield and centre-forward.
That continuity gives their defensive line and attacking-midfield structure a clearer selection base against Häcken. The two changed positions remain the principal variables, so the overall shape is likely to stay familiar.
- Kalmar's official 7 September report listed Brolin, Ylitolva, Keita, Löfgren, Larsson, Lauritsen, Söderbäck, Magashy and Sagoe Jr in the starting lineup against Djurgården.
- The official 13 September report listed the same nine players as starters against Elfsborg; Gustafsson replaced Gojani in midfield and Stolt replaced Dall up front.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestKalmar FF match report: loss to Djurgårdenkalmarff.se · 7 Sep 2026Kalmar FF match report: loss at Borås Arenakalmarff.se · 13 Sep 2026
Kalmar FF's overall record is 5 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses, but their home record is 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
They have lost all nine away league matches, but at home they have beaten teams like Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS. Their home form is crucial for survival, and they will rely on that advantage against Hacken.
- Kalmar FF have 0 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses away from home in the league.
- At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- Their last home league win was 2-1 against Mjallby AIF on 25 July.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 1.4 goals scored and concede over 1.3 per match, pushing combined expected goals to 2.8, but the odds already price Over 2.5 at 61.7% implied.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 7-8 of their last 10 home/away matches, but the 1.53 odds imply a 65.4% probability, well above our 58% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hacken's superior away form and higher league position give them the edge, but Kalmar's decent home record keeps confidence medium.
- Hacken away record: 4W 4D 2L in 10 away matches, 16 goals scored, 12 conceded
- Kalmar home record: 5W 2D 3L in 10 home matches, 14 goals scored, 12 conceded
- Hacken overall rank 6th with 33 points vs Kalmar 13th with 19 points
- Kalmar recent form LLLDL, Hacken DDLWW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHackenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hacken are unlikely to lose given their away resilience and Kalmar's struggles, making Draw or Hacken a strong double chance.
- Kalmar home losses only 3 in 10, but overall poor form
- Hacken away losses only 2 in 10
- H2H last 5: 3 Hacken wins, 1 draw, 1 Kalmar win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HackenEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Kalmar leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing 20%
- Hacken leading at half time in 27%, trailing 47%
- H2H last meeting was 1-1 at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time with Hacken winning full time is a plausible scenario given Hacken's second-half strength.
- Hacken often trail at half time but recover in second half
- Kalmar have poor second half record
- Hacken away form strong
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/HackenEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, pushing the total goals expectation above 2.5.
- Hacken average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match
- Kalmar average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match
- Combined average goals per match: 2.8
- Hacken away matches average 2.8 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Kalmar scored in 8 of last 10 home matches
- Hacken conceded in 7 of last 10 away matches
- Hacken scored in 8 of last 10 away matches
- Kalmar conceded in 7 of last 10 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Hacken especially conceding early.
- Kalmar first half goals average 0.8, conceded 0.5
- Hacken first half goals average 0.5, conceded 1.0
- Combined first half goal average 1.3
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is moderate, but the line is high; confidence is low.
- Kalmar average 0.6 second half goals, Hacken 0.9
- Hacken concede 0.6 second half goals, Kalmar 0.8
- Combined second half average 1.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages are right at the line, making this a coin flip.
- Kalmar average 3.6 corners, Hacken 5.9
- Combined average 9.5 corners
- Hacken away matches average 5.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shots on target averages are below the line, but variance is high.
- Kalmar average 2.9 shots on target, Hacken 4.8
- Combined average 7.7 shots on target
- Hacken away matches average 4.5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card averages are low, but derby intensity could push it over.
- Kalmar average 0.7 yellow cards, Hacken 1.6
- Combined average 2.3 yellow cards
- Referee tendencies unknown
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%