Sporting JAX0Indy Eleven1

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 10:05 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.30 (estimated 55% vs implied 43.5%).

Avoid Sporting JAX to win and Indy Eleven -1 handicap; the double chance Draw or Indy Eleven is likely but offers no value.

Context

Sporting JAX home record: 1W-3D-5L, 16 scored, 28 conceded.
- Recent home losses: 2-5 vs Charleston Battery, 2-6 vs Detroit City, 0-2 vs Tampa Bay Rowdies.
- They have conceded in all 9 home matches this season.
Indy Eleven away record: 0W-2D-6L, 5 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- They have lost their last four away matches, scoring only 1 goal in that stretch.
- Their only away goals came in a 2-2 draw at Birmingham Legion on 19 April.
Sporting JAX trailing at halftime in 64% of matches.
- They conceded 4 first-half goals in a 0-5 loss to Sacramento Republic on 2 August.
- In their last five matches, they have conceded 10 second-half goals.
H2H result: Indy Eleven 2-1 Sporting JAX on 9 May 2026.
- Sporting JAX led 1-0 at halftime before Indy scored twice in the second half.
- This is the only recorded meeting between the teams.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Indy Eleven

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Sporting JAX have won just 1 of 9 home matches, making Draw or Indy Eleven a high-probability outcome.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Indy Eleven

1.79fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Indy Eleven's superior overall record and Sporting JAX's poor home defense give the away side a slight edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven's superior overall record and Sporting JAX's poor home defensive record give the away side the edge, though Indy's own away struggles temper confidence.
- Indy Eleven away record: 0W-2D-6L, 5 goals scored, 14 conceded in 8 away matches
- Sporting JAX home record: 1W-3D-5L, 16 goals scored, 28 conceded in 9 home matches
- Sporting JAX overall: 1W-5D-13L, 23 goals scored, 51 conceded in 19 matches
- Indy Eleven overall: 6W-4D-7L, 20 goals scored, 21 conceded in 17 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIndy ElevenEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX rarely wins at home, making the double chance of Draw or Indy Eleven highly likely based on both teams' records.
- Sporting JAX home win rate: 11% (1 win in 9 home matches)
- Indy Eleven away loss rate: 75% (6 losses in 8 away matches)
- Sporting JAX overall win rate: 5% (1 win in 19 matches)
- Indy Eleven overall loss rate: 41% (7 losses in 17 matches)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Indy ElevenEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often find themselves level at halftime, with Indy's low first-half scoring and Sporting's occasional early goals balancing out.
- Sporting JAX leading at halftime in 36% of recent matches
- Indy Eleven leading at halftime in 20% of recent matches
- Sporting JAX trailing at halftime in 64% of recent matches
- Indy Eleven trailing at halftime in 33% of recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Indy Eleven win is plausible given Sporting JAX's tendency to fade and Indy's superior overall quality.
- Indy Eleven has won after being level at halftime in some matches
- Sporting JAX has drawn at halftime in 36% of recent matches
- Indy Eleven's away form is poor but Sporting JAX is worse overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Indy ElevenEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX's home games are high-scoring due to their leaky defense, pushing the total over 2.5 despite Indy's lower-scoring away trend.
- Sporting JAX home matches average 4.9 total goals (16 scored + 28 conceded in 9 matches)
- Indy Eleven away matches average 2.4 total goals (5 scored + 14 conceded in 8 matches)
- Sporting JAX overall matches average 3.9 total goals (23 scored + 51 conceded in 19 matches)
- Indy Eleven overall matches average 2.4 total goals (20 scored + 21 conceded in 17 matches)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding regularly in their respective home/away splits, supporting both teams scoring.
- Sporting JAX scored in 7 of 9 home matches (78%)
- Indy Eleven conceded in 7 of 8 away matches (88%)
- Indy Eleven scored in 5 of 8 away matches (63%)
- Sporting JAX conceded in all 9 home matches (100%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX's high first-half concession rate makes it very likely that at least one goal is scored in the first half.
- Sporting JAX first-half goals per match: 0.8 (average from recent form)
- Sporting JAX first-half goals conceded per match: 1.4 (average from recent form)
- Indy Eleven first-half goals per match: 0.2 (average from recent form)
- Indy Eleven first-half goals conceded per match: 0.3 (average from recent form)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the high total goals expected and Sporting JAX's defensive frailty, the second half is likely to see multiple goals.
- Sporting JAX home matches average 4.9 total goals, with many coming after halftime
- Indy Eleven away matches average 2.4 total goals
- Sporting JAX conceded 28 goals in 9 home matches, often in second half
- Indy Eleven scored 5 goals in 8 away matches, with some in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this is a speculative pick based on expected attacking intent from both sides.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Sporting JAX's attacking play at home may generate corners
- Indy Eleven's away matches may see fewer corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature and Sporting JAX's defensive struggles, a moderate number of cards is plausible.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Sporting JAX's poor defensive record may lead to more fouls and cards
- Indy Eleven's away matches may involve tactical fouling
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Sporting JAX have won only 1 of 19 matches overall and 1 of 9 at home; the 3.50 odds imply 29% but their true chance is closer to 10%.

Prediction history

Sporting JAX has been moderately reliable on Over 2.5 goals projections

Sporting JAX has fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions, with an average estimated probability of 59.7% and an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 55% to 65%. Home matches have seen 2 of 3 fulfilled, while away matches have seen 2 of 4 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Sporting JAX7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship