Fratria Varna3Spartak Pleven0

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 01:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Fratria Varna's tight home defence meets a Spartak Pleven side that has conceded 13 goals in five away league games, and Fratria are the likelier winners.

The 1.2 on a Fratria win asks for more than this fixture looks. Under 2.5 goals at 2.3, Spartak to win at 13 and Spartak to lead at half-time at 9 are the prices that hold up.

Context

Two of the last four meetings were drawn and none produced more than two goals, so the series has been tighter than the league table suggests.
Spartak's one clear success in the series came at Fratria in March 2025, and the last four meetings were settled by single goals or not at all. Fratria's home form and Spartak's away record point the other way, so the head-to-head is a genuine counterweight rather than a footnote. It supports expecting a tight, low-scoring game in Varna.
- Spartak Pleven won 2-0 at Fratria on 1 March 2025 in the Second League.
- The most recent meeting, on 16 April 2026 in Pleven, finished 1-1.
- The other two of the last four meetings: Fratria 1-0 Spartak Pleven on 20 October 2025 and a 0-0 draw on 18 August 2024 in Pleven.
- No meeting in that four-game head-to-head run produced more than two goals.
Fratria's home results rest on a defence that has conceded twice across six matches in the sample, an average of 0.5 goals against per home game.
Spartak have scored in three of five away league games and netted five on the road this season, so Fratria's clean-sheet run is not guaranteed to continue. Even so, four shutouts in six home matches is the most repeated pattern behind third place, and it shapes how this game is likely to be played.
- Fratria Varna's home split covers six competitive matches from 23 May to 7 September 2026: four wins, one draw, one defeat.
- They scored 5 and conceded 2 in those six home matches, with four clean sheets.
- Home first-half defensive average: 0.33 goals conceded per game; home second-half defensive average: 0.17 per game.
Spartak's away results are the weakest part of their season: three defeats in five league games outside Pleven and 13 goals conceded.
That away split is the clearest weakness in Spartak's season, while their home record of three wins from five shows the same side can compete when it is not travelling. Fratria's own league away record is unbeaten (two wins, three draws), which underlines how the two campaigns differ. The contrast is why the visitors start well behind, even with a tight head-to-head.
- Spartak Pleven league away record 2026: 5 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 5 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Spartak Pleven overall in the Second League: 12th place, 13 points from 10 games, 4W-1D-5L, 11 scored and 19 conceded.
- Fratria Varna overall in the Second League: 3rd place, 19 points from 10 games, 5W-4D-1L, 14 scored and 8 conceded.
The Round of 32 draw reported for Bulgaria's national cup places Levski against either Krumovgrad or Spartak Pleven, which keeps the Pleven club's knockout route open. For this fixture it is wider competition context rather than a playing condition: the report says nothing about Spartak Pleven's selection, availability or approach for the league match in Varna. It rests on a single small Levski-focused X account, is not confirmed by either club or the competition organisers, and gives no date, so whether any cup tie falls immediately around Sunday's game is unclear.
- On 23 September 2026 a Levski-supporting X account reported that Levski will face Krumovgrad or Spartak Pleven in the Round of 32 of the Sesame Bulgarian Cup.
To watchSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria have a strong home record and concede rarely, while Spartak have lost three of five away games and ship goals on the road.
- Fratria: 7W-4D-1L in 12 competitive matches, conceding 0.67 goals per game
- Fratria at home: 4W-1D-1L in 6, conceding 0.5 with four clean sheets
- Spartak Pleven away: 1W-1D-3L in 5, conceding 2.6 goals per game
- Spartak Pleven are 12th with 19 league goals conceded in 10 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFratria VarnaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria have the better first-half numbers at home while Spartak concede early on their travels.
- Fratria home first half: 0.83 scored and 0.33 conceded per game
- Spartak away first half: 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game
- Fratria's last six first halves produced 6 goals in total
- Spartak's last six first halves produced 8 goals in total
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFratria VarnaEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's second-half record against Spartak's away defensive numbers favours them after the break.
- Fratria second half: 0.75 scored and 0.33 conceded per game
- Spartak away second half: 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game
- Fratria's last six second halves produced 10 goals
- Spartak's last six second halves produced 12 goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFratria VarnaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria have a strong home record and concede rarely, while Spartak have lost three of five away games and ship goals on the road. Fratria's low-scoring, defensively solid matches and the recent head-to-head record both keep a draw in play.
- Fratria: 7W-4D-1L in 12 competitive matches, conceding 0.67 goals per game
- Fratria at home: 4W-1D-1L in 6, conceding 0.5 with four clean sheets
- Two of the last four meetings finished level (1-1 in April 2026, 0-0 in 2024)
- Fratria drew 4 of 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFratria Varna or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria have the better first-half numbers at home while Spartak concede early on their travels. Both teams' recent first halves have often been level and low-scoring.
- Fratria home first half: 0.83 scored and 0.33 conceded per game
- Spartak away first half: 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game
- Fratria's last 6 first halves: three finished 0-0
- Spartak's last 6 first halves: two finished 0-0
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFratria Varna or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Fratria's tight defence and a head-to-head record with no high-scoring game point to a modest total.
- The last four head-to-heads produced 2, 1, 2 and 0 goals
- Fratria concede 0.67 goals per game across 12 competitive matches
- Fratria home matches average 2.0 total goals
- Spartak away matches average 3.6 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fratria's home defence has been hard to break and Spartak's away attack has gone quiet.
- Fratria kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home games, conceding 3 goals
- Spartak scored 1 goal in their last 3 away games
- Fratria scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Spartak kept 1 clean sheet in 5 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's home scoring is modest and their games are generally low-scoring.
- Fratria home scoring average is 1.5 goals per game
- Fratria scored 6 goals in 5 league home games
- Fratria scored exactly one goal in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Fratria's matches average 2.33 goals overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFratria Varna under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's away scoring is limited and Fratria concede rarely at home.
- Spartak's away scoring average is 1.0 goal per game
- Spartak scored 1 goal across their last 3 away matches
- Fratria conceded 3 goals in 6 home matches
- Fratria have 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSpartak Pleven under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak have found the net in most of their away games, so Fratria conceding is the more likely single outcome.
- Spartak scored in 3 of 5 away games
- Fratria conceded in 2 of 6 home matches
- Fratria's overall clean-sheet rate is 6 in 12
- Spartak scored 5 goals in 5 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSpartak Pleven to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria score in almost every game and Spartak have conceded heavily on the road.
- Fratria scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Fratria scored in 5 of 6 home games
- Spartak conceded 13 goals in 5 away games
- Spartak shipped 5 and 3 goals in two recent away defeats
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFratria Varna to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Fratria's positive results still involve conceding or failing to win, so a win without conceding is the minority case.
- Fratria have 4 wins and 4 draws in 12 competitive matches
- Spartak scored in 3 of 5 away games
- Only 4 of Fratria's 6 home matches ended in clean sheets
- Fratria's home wins include a 2-2 draw and narrow results
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's away form is poor and their clean-sheet record is thin, making a shutout away win very unlikely.
- Spartak have 1 win in 5 away games
- Spartak's away win came without a clean sheet in the sample
- Fratria scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Spartak kept only 1 clean sheet in 5 away games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance91%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Combined first-half scoring across both teams points to a goal before the break.
- Fratria home first-half average: 0.83 scored and 0.33 conceded
- Spartak away first-half average: 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded
- Fratria's last six first halves produced 6 goals
- Spartak's last six first halves produced 8 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's full-season second-half numbers are low and they concede very little after the break.
- Fratria's overall second-half goals total 1.08 per game
- Fratria second-half goals against: 0.33 per game
- Spartak away second-half goals scored: 0.6 per game
- Fratria's 12 competitive matches average 2.33 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%