Hradec Kralove0Teplice2

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 9%–91%FoulsFouls 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Hradec Kralove are overpriced at 1.67 (our estimate 42% vs implied 60%), so avoid the home win and double chance.

The best value is Both Teams to Score Yes at 1.85, with a small positive edge (58% vs 54.1%).

Context

Hradec Kralove sit 6th in the Czech Liga with 14 points from 8 matches.
Their home record is strong: 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 games, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Teplice have won 2 and lost 1 of their 3 away matches, so this is a contest between a solid home side and a capable away team.
- Hradec Kralove home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 4 matches.
- Teplice away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in 3 matches.
Hradec Králové announced six unavailable players for their September 16 cup tie.
The absences of Daniel Horák, Jakub Kučera, Ondřej Mihálik, Tomáš Petrášek, Tomáš Wiesner and Viktor Zentrich reduce Hradec's defensive, midfield and attacking cover for the final match before the break. The club has not confirmed whether any of these players will return for the league fixture.
- FC Hradec Králové's official cup XI announcement listed Daniel Horák, Jakub Kučera, Ondřej Mihálik, Tomáš Petrášek, Tomáš Wiesner and Viktor Zentrich as absent.
- Hradec won the September 16 cup tie at Příbram 2-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:54 · Europe/BucharestHradec cup reportwww.fchk.cz · 16 Sep 2026
Teplice are 7th with 13 points, one point behind Hradec Kralove.
Teplice's matches have produced 3.3 total goals on average compared to Hradec Kralove's 2.4. Teplice also take more shots (14.5 vs 12.0) and have a higher first-half goal average (0.9 vs 0.5), which could lead to earlier scoring.
- Teplice average 2.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Hradec Kralove average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Teplice average 14.5 shots per game; Hradec Kralove average 12.0.
Teplice goalkeeper Matouš Trmal missed the September 13 league match with a health issue.
Kryštof Lichtenberg started in goal for Teplice's September 16 cup win, and the goalkeeping choice for the Hradec match remains unresolved. If Trmal is still unavailable, Teplice's defensive communication could be affected.
- FK Teplice said Matouš Trmal dropped out of the squad against Slavia because of health complications.
- Kryštof Lichtenberg started in goal for Teplice at Táborsko on September 16.
- K. Lichtenberg started in the same position in 2 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when M. Trmal did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:54 · Europe/BucharestTeplice match report: Slaviawww.fkteplice.cz · 13 Sep 2026Teplice cup report: Táborskowww.fkteplice.cz · 16 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hradec Kralove

1.67fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Hradec, but our model sees only a 42% chance, making the home win poor value despite their unbeaten home league record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hradec's strong home form and positive H2H edge give them a slight advantage, though Teplice's away wins keep the probability moderate.
- Hradec home record: 3W 1D 0L in 4 league matches, 6 goals for, 3 against.
- Teplice away record: 2W 0D 1L in 3 league matches, 5 goals for, 5 against.
- H2H last 5: Hradec won 2, drew 2, lost 1; at Hradec's home they won 1 and drew 1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHradec KraloveEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hradec's unbeaten home record and solid H2H results make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance on the home side.
- Hradec home record: 3W 1D 0L in 4 league matches.
- Teplice away record: 2W 0D 1L in 3 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Hradec won 2, drew 2, lost 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHradec Kralove or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Teplice's superior first-half scoring and halftime lead rate give them an edge, though Hradec's home resilience tempers confidence.
- Teplice led at halftime in 53% of matches.
- Hradec led at halftime in only 27% of matches.
- Teplice average 0.9 first-half goals vs Hradec's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTepliceEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Hradec win is plausible given their tendency to start slowly and finish strongly at home.
- Hradec drew at halftime in 53% of matches.
- Hradec won 50% of home matches.
- H2H last meeting at Hradec ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Hradec KraloveEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Teplice's high-scoring attack and Hradec's moderate defense suggest a decent chance of at least three total goals.
- Hradec league matches average 1.3 goals for and 1.1 against.
- Teplice league matches average 2.2 goals for and 1.1 against.
- Teplice's last 5 league matches: 3, 1, 2, 5, 3 goals scored.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and Teplice's defense is leaky, making both teams scoring likely.
- Hradec scored in 6 of 8 league matches.
- Teplice scored in 7 of 8 league matches.
- Teplice conceded in 6 of 8 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Teplice's strong first-half scoring and Hradec's occasional early concessions make a first-half goal likely.
- Hradec average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Teplice average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- Teplice led at halftime in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the match follows average scoring patterns, the second half could see multiple goals, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Hradec average 1.3 total goals per match.
- Teplice average 2.2 total goals per match.
- Combined average total goals: 3.4 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a close call on the 9.5 line.
- Hradec average 5.2 corners per match.
- Teplice average 5.6 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 10.8 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards slightly exceeds the 3.5 line, making over a marginal lean.
- Hradec average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- Teplice average 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.0 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%