Teplice2Jablonec0

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 15–9On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 16:57 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Jablonec or Draw at 1.53, with a 72% model probability versus 65% implied.

Both Teams to Score – No and Under 2.5 goals also offer edges, but avoid the match winner market on Jablonec and the first-half under 1.5 goals, which are overpriced.

Context

Jablonec sits 6th with 9 points from 3 games, scoring 5 and conceding 1. Teplice is 9th with 7 points from 5 games, conceding 12 goals.
Jablonec's three league wins include a 2-0 away victory at Pardubice on 2026-08-02 and a 1-0 home win over Slovácko on 2026-08-09. Teplice lost 0-2 at home to Zbrojovka Brno on 2026-08-23 and 1-4 away to Sparta Praha on 2026-08-15. The form gap suggests Jablonec may control the match, but Teplice's 5-5 home draw with Plzen on 2026-08-08 shows they can score at home.
- Jablonec league record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals for, 1 against.
- Teplice league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 10 goals for, 12 against.
- Jablonec won 2-0 at Pardubice on 2026-08-02 and 1-0 at home to Slovácko on 2026-08-09.
- Teplice lost 0-2 at home to Zbrojovka Brno on 2026-08-23 and 1-4 at Sparta Praha on 2026-08-15.
Jablonec played 120 minutes against Rangers on 27 August and advanced on penalties, while Teplice used a substantially changed cup side on 26 August and shared minutes across the squad.
Jablonec's shorter recovery window may force rotation or reduce late-game intensity. Teplice's wider squad usage gives them a fresher base, but the exact effect on Jablonec's starting selection remains uncertain until team news.
- Jablonec beat Rangers 1-0 after extra time on 27 August and advanced by winning the penalty shootout.
- Luboš Kozel selected the same starting XI as for the previous week's match in Glasgow.
- Teplice described their 26 August cup side as substantially changed and said minutes were shared across the squad.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:08 · Europe/BucharestFK Jablonec: Rangers second-leg reportfkjablonec.cz · 27 Aug 2026FK Teplice: Křimice cup reportfkteplice.cz · 26 Aug 2026
Teplice's home record is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded.
Teplice drew 5-5 with Plzen at home on 2026-08-08, showing defensive weakness. They also lost 0-2 at home to Zbrojovka Brno on 2026-08-23. Jablonec have scored in every league match and average 1.6 goals per game, so they may exploit this.
- Teplice home record: 3 played, 8 goals conceded.
- Teplice drew 5-5 with Plzen at home on 2026-08-08.
- Teplice lost 0-2 at home to Zbrojovka Brno on 2026-08-23.
- Jablonec average 1.6 goals per game in the league.
Jablonec defender N. Tekijaški started both Rangers legs and was substituted in the 85th minute of the second leg for health reasons.
If Tekijaški is unavailable, Jablonec lose a regular starter from their defensive unit. The club has not specified the issue or his availability, so his status remains a key selection question.
- N. Tekijaški started Jablonec's Rangers second leg.
- The club reported that its captain had to be substituted in the 85th minute for health reasons.
- N. Tekijaški started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:08 · Europe/BucharestFK Jablonec: Rangers second-leg reportfkjablonec.cz · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's perfect start and dominant H2H record give them a clear edge, though Teplice's home advantage and recent attacking output keep the probability moderate.
- Jablonec have won all 3 league matches this season, conceding only 1 goal.
- Teplice have lost 2 of their last 5 league matches, including a 0-2 home loss to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Jablonec have won the last 3 H2H meetings, all by 1-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJablonecEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's strong form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, while Teplice's home resilience adds draw potential.
- Jablonec are unbeaten in their last 3 league matches (3 wins).
- Teplice have drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 3 home league matches this season.
- Jablonec have not lost to Teplice in the last 3 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostJablonec or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, and the H2H pattern supports a first-half draw.
- Teplice's first-half results this season: L, L, L, D, W (2 draws in last 5).
- Jablonec's first-half results this season: D, W, D, W, W (2 draws in last 5).
- In the last 3 H2H meetings, 2 were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Jablonec breakthrough is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength.
- Jablonec have won all 3 league matches this season, often scoring in the second half.
- Teplice have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- The last 3 H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time in 2 cases, with Jablonec winning 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/JablonecEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's defensive solidity and Teplice's H2H scoring struggles suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Jablonec have kept clean sheets in all 3 league matches this season.
- Teplice failed to score in their last 3 H2H meetings against Jablonec.
- Teplice have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches, but Jablonec's defense is strong.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's low-scoring games and the H2H pattern of 1-0 results point to a tight, low-scoring match.
- Jablonec's 3 league matches this season have averaged 2.0 total goals.
- The last 3 H2H meetings all ended 1-0.
- Teplice's home league matches have averaged 5.3 total goals, but Jablonec's defense is strong.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's perfect defensive record and Teplice's H2H struggles make an away clean sheet plausible.
- Jablonec have kept clean sheets in all 3 league matches this season.
- Teplice failed to score in their last 3 H2H meetings against Jablonec.
- Teplice have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches, but Jablonec's defense is strong.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTeplice not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, and the H2H history shows few first-half goals.
- Jablonec's first-half goals this season: 0, 2, 1 (avg 1.0).
- Teplice's first-half goals this season: 0, 1, 3, 0, 1 (avg 1.0).
- In the last 3 H2H meetings, only 1 first-half goal was scored.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Teplice tend to push for goals late, but Jablonec's strong defense makes this a low-confidence lean.
- Teplice's second-half goals this season: 0, 0, 2, 1, 2 (avg 1.0).
- Jablonec's second-half goals this season: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (avg 0.2).
- The last 3 H2H meetings had 2 second-half goals total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a close call around the 9.5 line.
- Teplice average 5.1 corners per match, Jablonec 4.3.
- Teplice's home matches have averaged 10.3 total corners.
- Jablonec's away matches have averaged 8.0 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are near the 3.5 line, making this a coin-flip with slight lean over due to Teplice's higher foul count.
- Teplice average 1.8 yellow cards per match, Jablonec 1.2.
- Teplice's home matches have averaged 3.3 total cards.
- Jablonec's away matches have averaged 2.0 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%