Liverpool33 – 1Tottenham1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Structural home edge at Anfield plus a dominant recent H2H record (3 wins in last 5, including 5-1 and 4-0 home wins) gives Liverpool the edge, though the compressed Fulham-to-Tottenham turnaround tempers confidence.

• H2H last 5: Liverpool won 3, drew 1, lost 1; at Anfield they won 5-1 (Apr 2025) and 4-0 (Feb 2025 League Cup)
• Liverpool last 15: 1.9 goals scored, 1.7 conceded, 56.5% possession, 14.8 shots per match
• Tottenham last 15: 1.5 goals scored, 0.9 conceded, 58.6% possession, 13.7 shots per match
• Liverpool last 5: W-W-D-D-D including 2-0 win at Ipswich and 2-1 home win over Atletico Madrid

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLiverpoolEstimated chance52%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's strong home record and H2H dominance make a non-defeat highly likely, with Tottenham's recent away form (0-3 at Brentford) reinforcing the structural home edge.

• Liverpool last 15: only 3 defeats, with 1.9 goals scored per match
• H2H last 5: Liverpool unbeaten in 4 of 5 meetings (3W, 1D)
• Tottenham last 5: L-L-W-L-D, including 0-2 home loss to Newcastle and 0-3 at Brentford
• Liverpool at Anfield in H2H: 5-1 and 4-0 wins in the last two home meetings

BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool or DrawEstimated chance76%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Tottenham's strong half-time leading rate (47%) offsets Liverpool's home advantage, so this is a low-confidence lean toward the home side based on Anfield pressure.

• Liverpool last 15: leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 27%
• Tottenham last 15: leading at half-time in 47% of matches, trailing in only 13%
• Liverpool last 5: half-time results D-W-L-L-D
• Tottenham last 5: half-time results D-D-W-L-W

BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLiverpoolEstimated chance38%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's superior squad depth and Anfield second-half pressure, combined with Tottenham's recent heavy away defeats, favour the home side after the break.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.9 goals per match with a tendency to score late at Anfield
• Tottenham last 15: 0.9 goals conceded per match, but 0-3 and 0-2 defeats show second-half collapses
• H2H last 5: Liverpool scored 4+ in two home meetings
• Liverpool last 5: second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLiverpoolEstimated chance48%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's moderate half-time leading rate and Tottenham's resilience before the break make a full HT/FT home double a lower-probability outcome.

• Liverpool last 15: leading at half-time in 33% of matches
• Liverpool last 5: half-time results D-W-L-L-D, with only one HT lead converted
• Tottenham last 15: trailing at half-time in only 13% of matches
• H2H last 5: Liverpool won 3 of 5, but only one was a wire-to-wire home lead

BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLiverpool/LiverpoolEstimated chance27%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both sides carry genuine attacking output and Liverpool's recent defensive record shows regular concessions, while H2H patterns show both teams scoring in a majority of recent meetings.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.7 goals conceded per match, with clean sheets in only a minority of recent games
• Tottenham last 15: 1.5 goals scored per match, 13.7 shots and 4.0 shots on target per game
• H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
• Liverpool last 5: conceded in 3 of 5 (2-1, 2-2, 2-2)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's high-scoring profile combined with H2H history of open games supports the over, though Tottenham's improved defensive numbers (0.9 conceded) keep confidence moderate.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.9 scored + 1.7 conceded = 3.6 combined goals per match
• Tottenham last 15: 1.5 scored + 0.9 conceded = 2.4 combined goals per match
• H2H last 5: 3 of 5 meetings produced 3+ goals, including 5-1 and 4-0
• Liverpool last 5: 2-1, 2-0, 2-2, 2-2, 0-0 — three matches with 3+ goals

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams regularly register first-half goals and Liverpool's early pressing at Anfield typically produces chances before the break, making at least one first-half goal likely.

• Liverpool last 15: 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.6 conceded per match
• Tottenham last 15: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.3 conceded per match
• Liverpool last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches (1, 2, 0, 0, 0)
• Tottenham last 5: first-half goals in 3 of 5 matches (0, 0, 2, 0, 2)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's recent defensive record shows regular concessions and Tottenham carry enough attacking threat to score at Anfield, making a home clean sheet unlikely.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.7 goals conceded per match, clean sheets in a minority of games
• Tottenham last 15: 1.5 goals scored per match with 13.7 shots per game
• H2H last 5: Tottenham scored in 3 of 5 meetings
• Liverpool last 5: conceded in 3 of 5 matches

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTottenham to scoreEstimated chance62%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's leaky recent defence and Tottenham's consistent scoring output make a Liverpool win without conceding improbable.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.7 goals conceded per match
• Tottenham last 15: 1.5 goals scored per match, scoring in 11 of 15 matches
• H2H last 5: Tottenham scored in 3 of 5 meetings including the 1-1 draw in March 2026
• Liverpool last 5: only one clean sheet in five matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool's consistent scoring output at Anfield, including 5-1 and 4-0 in recent H2H home meetings, supports the home side scoring at least twice.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.9 goals scored per match at an average of 14.8 shots
• H2H last 5: Liverpool scored 5, 4, 2 and 1 in home meetings
• Liverpool last 5: scored 2, 2, 2, 2, 0 goals
• Tottenham last 15: 0.9 goals conceded per match, but 3 conceded at Brentford

BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLiverpool over 1.5Estimated chance63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams average well above five corners per match and Tottenham's recent corner counts are consistently high, supporting the over line.

• Liverpool last 15: 6.0 corners per match, with 14 corners vs Brentford and 9 vs Aston Villa
• Tottenham last 15: 7.6 corners per match, with 10, 9, 11 and 14 in recent games
• H2H last 5: high-tempo meetings at Anfield typically generate double-digit corners
• Tottenham last 5: 10, 9, 11, 3, 14 corners — four of five above 9

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Combined shot-on-target averages of 9.3 per match between the two sides support the over, though Tottenham's recent blank against Forest adds variance.

• Liverpool last 15: 5.3 shots on target per match, 14.8 shots total
• Tottenham last 15: 4.0 shots on target per match, 13.7 shots total
• Liverpool last 5: 5, 7, 4, 7, 0 shots on target
• Tottenham last 5: 0, 6, 11, 4, 2 shots on target

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams average near two or more yellow cards per match with high foul counts, and the competitive H2H history supports a moderate over on cards.

• Liverpool last 15: 1.9 yellow cards and 12.0 fouls per match
• Tottenham last 15: 2.6 yellow cards and 13.2 fouls per match
• H2H last 5: competitive meetings with multiple bookings in recent Anfield clashes
• Tottenham last 5: 2, 1, 1, 1, 3 yellow cards