Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Everton1Liverpool2

HT 0–1Sun 19 Apr 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 10–14On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Apr 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Back First-Half Draw @ 2.15 (60% model probability vs.

46.5% implied) as the premium edge in a low-scoring derby setup; Cards Over 4.5 @ 2.05 (+21pts value) offers secondary high-confidence backing given the Merseyside fixture's documented volatility and combined foul averages.

Context

Merseyside derby is the PL fixture with the most red cards historically (Opta/Guardian)
- Liverpool vs Brighton last match: 10 total yellows (5 each side)
Liverpool first half: 0.5 GF, 0.5 GA — combined 1.0 first-half goals/game
- 3 of last 5 H2H were level at half-time (including 0-0 twice implied by scorelines)
Everton leading at HT only 40% of the time; Liverpool only 30%
- Both teams average ~1.0 combined first-half goals in recent form
Liverpool scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings at Everton's ground
- Liverpool season record: 52 GF in 32 games (1.63/game overall), 23 GF in 16 away

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's terrible away form (losing record, negative GD) meets Everton's inconsistent home record in a rivalry historically decided by thin margins, making the draw a live outcome at ~30%.
- Everton home record: W6 D4 L6 — 25% draw rate at home this season
- Liverpool away record: W6 D3 L7 — poor for a CL-chasing side with negative away GD (23GF, 25GA)
- H2H: 1 draw in last 5 (2-2 at Everton, Feb 2025), but 3 of 5 were decided by a single goal
- Liverpool recent form WLDLW includes 3 losses in last 5 across competitions
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's losing away record (7 losses in 16), combined with significant injuries and Everton's competitiveness in home derbies (2 of last 3 unbeaten), gives the home/draw combination a strong probability.
- Liverpool away: W6 D3 L7 (37.5% win rate on the road this season)
- Everton won or drew 2 of last 3 H2H at home (2-0 win Apr 2024, 2-2 draw Feb 2025)
- Liverpool missing Alisson, Bradley, Gomez, Endo — 5+ first-team absences
- Everton recent form DWLWW is stronger than Liverpool's WLDLW
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEverton or DrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H half-time draw pattern (3 of 5), combined with both teams' low first-half goal production and the cautious opening typical of high-stakes derbies, strongly favors a drawn first half.
- 3 of 5 recent H2H meetings were level at half-time
- Everton leading at HT only 40% of the time; Liverpool only 30%
- Both teams average ~1.0 combined first-half goals in recent form
- Derby tension typically produces cagey opening 45 minutes
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of tight, low-scoring derbies (avg 2.0 goals) combines with Liverpool's poor recent finishing (1.2 goals/game despite high shot volume) and Everton's counter-attacking deep block to suppress total goals below 2.5.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had ≤3 total goals; average 2.0 goals per H2H match
- Liverpool scoring only 1.2 goals/game over last 10 matches with 6.2 shots on target from 16.8 total shots
- Everton conceding 1.2 goals/game recently; home record 19 GA in 16 games (1.19/game)
- Liverpool missing Alisson, Gomez, Bradley — weakened squad affecting cohesion
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's leaky recent defense (1.5 GA/game) without Alisson, combined with Everton's effective counter-attacking style (3-0 vs Chelsea, 3-2 vs Newcastle), makes BTTS likely despite the typically tight derby script.
- Everton scoring 1.5 goals/game in recent form; scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Liverpool conceding 1.5 goals/game in recent form; kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5
- 3 of last 5 H2H saw both teams score (2-1, 2-2, 2-0 but offset by two 1-0/2-0 shutouts)
- Liverpool without Alisson in goal increases defensive vulnerability
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show very low first-half goal production (~0.5 GF each per half), and the H2H pattern of cagey opening periods in derbies (3 of 5 level at HT) strongly supports under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Everton first half: 0.6 GF, 0.4 GA — combined 1.0 first-half goals/game
- Liverpool first half: 0.5 GF, 0.5 GA — combined 1.0 first-half goals/game
- 3 of last 5 H2H were level at half-time (including 0-0 twice implied by scorelines)
- Both teams leading at HT only 30-40% of the time in recent form
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Liverpool's recent dip, they still average 1.44 goals per away game this season, and Everton's home defense concedes regularly (19 GA in 16), making an Everton clean sheet unlikely.
- Everton kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5 matches (vs Burnley, a bottom-3 side)
- Liverpool scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings at Everton's ground
- Liverpool season record: 52 GF in 32 games (1.63/game overall), 23 GF in 16 away
- Everton conceded 19 goals in 16 home games this season (1.19/game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLiverpool to scoreEstimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The historically volatile Merseyside derby, combined with both teams' already high foul and card averages (21.6 combined fouls, 4.3 combined yellows per game), makes exceeding 4.5 cards highly probable with the added derby friction premium.
- Combined base yellow card average: 4.3/game (Everton 1.7 + Liverpool 2.6)
- Merseyside derby is the PL fixture with the most red cards historically (Opta/Guardian)
- Liverpool vs Brighton last match: 10 total yellows (5 each side)
- Everton avg 10.3 fouls/game, Liverpool avg 11.3 fouls/game — high combined foul count of 21.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's high shot volume (16.8/game) against Everton's deep defensive block should produce frequent blocked shots and cleared crosses, driving the corner count above 9.5 given a combined baseline of 10.6.
- Combined corner average: 10.6/game (Everton 4.6 + Liverpool 6.0)
- Liverpool generated 8 corners vs PSG (home) and 8 vs Brighton recently
- Liverpool average 16.8 shots/game — high volume generates corners from blocked shots
- Everton opponents averaged 6-9 corners in recent matches (Chelsea 9, Newcastle 7, Arsenal 8)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined baseline of 11.1 shots on target per game and both teams consistently putting 5+ on target in recent matches, exceeding 9.5 combined SOT is probable even accounting for derby defensive intensity.
- Combined shots on target average: 11.1/game (Everton 4.9 + Liverpool 6.2)
- Liverpool generated 5 SOT in each of their last 4 matches minimum
- Everton recorded 9 SOT vs Chelsea, 7 SOT vs Brentford in recent matches
- Combined total shots average is 28.5/game — high overall shot volume
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-1LiverpoolvEvertonSep 20, 2025PL

L1-0LiverpoolvEvertonApr 2, 2025PL

D2-2EvertonvLiverpoolFeb 12, 2025PL

W2-0EvertonvLiverpoolApr 24, 2024PL

L2-0LiverpoolvEvertonOct 21, 2023PL

Liverpool: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Everton	32	13	8	11	39-37	47	DWLWW
5	Liverpool Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	32	15	7	10	52-42	52	WLDLW

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Everton

D2-2BrentfordApr 11PL

W3-0ChelseaMar 21PL

L0-2ArsenalMar 14PL

W2-0BurnleyMar 3PL

W3-2NewcastleFeb 28PL

L0-1Manchester UnitedFeb 23PL

L1-2BournemouthFeb 10PL

W2-1FulhamFeb 7PL

D1-1BrightonJan 31PL

D1-1LeedsJan 26PL

Liverpool

L0-2Paris Saint GermainApr 14UEF

W2-0FulhamApr 11PL

L0-2Paris Saint GermainApr 8UEF

L0-4Manchester CityApr 4FAC

L1-2BrightonMar 21PL

W4-0GalatasarayMar 18UEF

D1-1TottenhamMar 15PL

L0-1GalatasarayMar 10UEF

W3-1WolvesMar 6FAC

L1-2WolvesMar 3PL

Squad & Injuries

Everton

4 out

Attackers4

Midfielders4/13

×#18

×#24

×#18

×#24

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

#18 J. Grealish — Foot Injury

#24 C. Alcaraz — Injury

#18 J. Grealish — Foot Injury

#24 C. Alcaraz — Injury

Liverpool

14 out

Attackers5

Midfielders4/13

×#22

×#3

×#22

×#3

Defenders4/11

×#12

×#2

×#12

×#2

Goalkeeper2/5

×#1

#1 Alisson — Muscle Injury

S. Bajcetic — Hamstring Injury

#12 C. Bradley — Knee Injury

#22 H. Ekitike — Achilles Tendon Injury

#3 W. Endo — Foot Injury

#2 J. Gomez — Injury

G. Leoni — Knee Injury

#1 Alisson — Muscle Injury

S. Bajcetic — Hamstring Injury

#12 C. Bradley — Knee Injury

#22 H. Ekitike — Achilles Tendon Injury

#3 W. Endo — Foot Injury

#2 J. Gomez — Injury

G. Leoni — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Over 4.5

Over 8.5

Under 1.5

Everton or Draw

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Everton

Liverpool

Squad & Injuries

Everton

Liverpool