Nottingham Forest0Tottenham0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 12–12On targetOn target 2–0CornersCorners 2–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 13:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Forest are a slight value pick at 2.40 to win, and the double chance Forest or Draw at 1.48 offers a small edge.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 is also worth considering, but avoid the overpriced Over 0.5 first-half goals and both 'No' clean sheet markets.

Context

Tottenham are bottom of the Premier League table with no points and no goals after two matches.
They lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle on 29 August and 3-0 away to Brentford on 22 August. Those defeats leave them with a goal difference of -5 and already in the relegation zone. A third straight loss would deepen their early-season problems, but the small sample size means their form could still change quickly.
- Tottenham lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle on 29 August 2026.
- Tottenham lost 3-0 away to Brentford on 22 August 2026.
- Tottenham are 20th with 0 points and a -5 goal difference after two matches.
Tottenham head coach Roberto De Zerbi has directly identified defensive spacing and in-game response as active problems after the Newcastle loss.
He said the distance between attackers and defenders was too large and the reaction after conceding did not meet his expectation. That points to immediate work on connections and defensive space, which can shape Tottenham's approach at Forest. The linked analysis sees Forest with a slight edge, but the claim itself only establishes the issues De Zerbi must address.
- De Zerbi said Tottenham suffered because the distance between attackers and defenders was too large in the first half against Newcastle.
- He said the side lost confidence after conceding and that the reaction did not meet his expectation.
- De Zerbi described improving player connections and defensive space as part of building the team.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 13:19 · Europe/BucharestTottenham Hotspurwww.tottenhamhotspur.com · 29 Aug 2026
Nottingham Forest are 15th in the table with one point from two matches.
They drew 2-2 away at Liverpool on 29 August and lost 1-0 at home to Leeds on 22 August. Their home defeat shows they are not yet comfortable at the City Ground, but they have scored in both league games. A win here would lift them away from the bottom, though their overall form is still uncertain.
- Nottingham Forest drew 2-2 away at Liverpool on 29 August 2026.
- Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds on 22 August 2026.
- Nottingham Forest are 15th with 1 point and a -1 goal difference.
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have met five times in the Premier League since April 2024.
In the most recent meeting on 22 March 2026, Nottingham Forest won 3-0 away at Tottenham. Before that, Nottingham Forest won 3-0 at home on 14 December 2025, and Tottenham won 2-1 at home on 21 April 2025. The pattern of home wins is strong, but each match is different and current form may matter more.
- Nottingham Forest won 3-0 away at Tottenham on 22 March 2026.
- Nottingham Forest won 3-0 at home against Tottenham on 14 December 2025.
- Tottenham won 2-1 at home against Nottingham Forest on 21 April 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and Tottenham's poor early-season form give Forest a slight edge, though home form is unproven.
- Nottingham Forest won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 3-0 home win in Dec 2025
- Tottenham lost both league matches this season, scoring 0 goals
- Forest home record this season: 0W 0D 1L, but overall form DL with 2 goals scored
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNottingham ForestEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's poor away form and Forest's H2H dominance make a home win or draw likely.
- Tottenham have lost both league matches this season
- Forest have drawn 1 and lost 1, but H2H home advantage is strong
- Tottenham away record: 0W 0D 1L, 0 goals scored
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNottingham Forest or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar first-half records suggest a draw at half-time is possible.
- Forest leading at half-time in 47% of matches, trailing 20%
- Tottenham leading at half-time in 47%, trailing 13%
- Both teams often level at break
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full draw is less likely given H2H history but possible given both teams' inconsistency.
- Forest drew 2 of last 5 league matches
- Tottenham drew 1 of last 5 league matches
- H2H has no draws in last 5
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H history support a high-scoring match.
- Forest matches average 2.6 total goals (1.3 for, 1.3 against)
- Tottenham matches average 2.7 total goals (1.6 for, 1.1 against)
- H2H last 5: 3,3,3,1,4 goals - 4 of 5 over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H patterns and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities suggest both teams scoring.
- Forest scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Tottenham scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Both teams have conceded in most recent league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half based on recent averages.
- Forest average 0.7 first-half goals, concede 0.3
- Tottenham average 0.8 first-half goals, concede 0.4
- H2H first halves often produce goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible but less certain than first-half.
- Forest second-half goals: 0.6 average (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
- Tottenham second-half goals: 0.8 average (1.6 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second-half average 1.4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's attacking threat and Forest's defensive lapses make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Forest conceded in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Tottenham scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Forest home clean sheet rate low
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTottenham to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Forest's H2H scoring record and Tottenham's defensive issues make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Tottenham conceded in both league matches this season
- Forest scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Tottenham away clean sheet rate low
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNottingham Forest to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's high corner count and Forest's moderate numbers push total corners over 9.5.
- Forest average 4.2 corners, concede 3.2 (opponent corners)
- Tottenham average 7.2 corners, concede 5.2
- Combined average 11.4 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate decent shots on target, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Forest average 3.8 shots on target, concede 4.2
- Tottenham average 4.7 shots on target, concede 3.1
- Combined average 8.5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderately high card count.
- Forest average 2 yellow cards, opponents 2.1
- Tottenham average 2.7 yellow cards, opponents 1.9
- Combined average 4.7 cards per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 21.1% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 15% for a Forest win by 2+; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Nottingham Forest has been unreliable for Over 2.5 goals

Nottingham Forest has fulfilled 3 of 6 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 57.5%, but only 50% of matches went over, below the expected 3.5 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all three fulfilled predictions came away from home, while none of the three home matches exceeded 2.5 goals.

Recent evidence for Nottingham Forest6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League