2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Holstein Kiel2St Pauli2

HT 0–2Fri 14 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 19–13On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 07:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Over 2.5 Goals (1.70) and Both Teams to Score (1.62) — both offer double-digit edges based on consistent high-scoring patterns and leaky defences.

The Draw (3.60) is a speculative play given early-season form and Rapp's inside knowledge, but avoid the Double Chance 'Kiel or Draw' (1.43) as it's priced too short.

Context

Rapp was appointed St Pauli head coach on 5 June 2026 after Alexander Blessin's dismissal.
- He coached Holstein Kiel to Bundesliga promotion in 2023-24, giving him deep familiarity with the squad and club.
- This is Rapp's first competitive return to Kiel, adding a personal and tactical dimension to the fixture.
St Pauli won all of the last five encounters: 2-1, 3-1, 4-3, 5-1, and 4-3.
- Three of those wins came at Kiel's home ground, with St Pauli scoring at least two goals each time.
- The last five H2H matches produced 23 goals, with both teams scoring in four of them.
Holstein Kiel conceded twice at Darmstadt, continuing a pattern of 11 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- St Pauli allowed Fürth 15 shots and 7 on target in their opener, consistent with conceding in 13 of their last 15.
- Both teams scored in each of their opening fixtures, and both have scored in over 70% of their last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Early-season form shows both teams settling for draws, and the tactical familiarity of Rapp with Kiel could lead to a stalemate despite H2H favoring St Pauli.
- Holstein Kiel drew 3 of last 15; St Pauli drew 4 of last 15.
- Both teams opened the season with draws (Kiel 2-2, St Pauli 1-1).
- St Pauli's new coach Marcel Rapp knows Kiel well, potentially neutralizing home advantage.
- Kiel's home form in last 5 home league matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kiel's home resilience and St Pauli's poor away form make a home win or draw likely, though H2H dominance by St Pauli tempers confidence.
- Holstein Kiel lost only 5 of last 15 overall; St Pauli lost 7 of last 15.
- Kiel's home advantage: last 5 home league matches yielded 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- St Pauli's away form in last 5 competitive away matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- H2H at Kiel: St Pauli won last 3 visits, but all by one goal, suggesting tight contests.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHolstein Kiel or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar halftime profiles and mixed H2H halftime outcomes suggest a draw at the break is plausible, though low confidence due to volatility.
- Holstein Kiel led at halftime in 33% of last 15, trailed in 40%, drew in 27%.
- St Pauli led at halftime in 33% of last 15, trailed in 40%, drew in 27%.
- Last 5 H2H: halftime results were 1 draw, 2 home leads, 2 away leads.
- Both teams scored first-half goals in 3 of last 5 H2H.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams are draw-prone early in the season, the lack of H2H precedent and low base rate make this a speculative outcome.
- Holstein Kiel had 2 HT/FT draws in last 15; St Pauli had 3.
- Both teams drew their opening match of the season.
- H2H: no HT/FT draws in last 5 meetings.
- Kiel's home matches: 1 HT/FT draw in last 5 home league games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently produce high-scoring matches, and the H2H history strongly supports over 2.5 goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Holstein Kiel's last 15 matches averaged 3.2 total goals (1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded).
- St Pauli's last 15 matches averaged 3.7 total goals (1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded).
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 4.6 total goals, with all 5 exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Holstein Kiel's recent 2. Bundesliga form (last 5 league matches) saw 4 of 5 over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making both teams scoring highly probable, reinforced by H2H patterns.
- Holstein Kiel scored in 13 of last 15 matches; St Pauli scored in 12 of last 15.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in 11 of last 15; St Pauli conceded in 13 of last 15.
- St Pauli's last 5 competitive matches (Bundesliga/2. Bundesliga) saw both teams score in 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows consistent first-half scoring, making over 1.5 first-half goals a strong possibility.
- Holstein Kiel averaged 0.9 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in last 15.
- St Pauli averaged 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals totals were 2, 2, 3, 2, 2 (all over 1.5).
- Holstein Kiel led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%, indicating early action.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to open up as both teams push for results, supported by H2H data and their second-half scoring trends.
- Holstein Kiel's second-half goal difference in last 15: +0.2 (0.8 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- St Pauli's second-half goal difference in last 15: +0.1 (0.9 scored, 0.8 conceded).
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals totals were 1, 2, 2, 3, 2 (4 of 5 over 1.5).
- Both teams show higher scoring rates in second halves across recent competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, and H2H history supports a high total, driven by attacking width and defensive clearances.
- Holstein Kiel averaged 5.8 corners for and 5.1 against in last 15 (total 10.9).
- St Pauli averaged 5.7 corners for and 5.7 against in last 15 (total 11.4).
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: totals of 12, 12, 13, 14, 5 (4 of 5 over 9.5).
- Kiel's last 5 league matches averaged 11.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kiel's high disciplinary record and the intensity of this rivalry match point to a card count exceeding 4.5, supported by H2H trends.
- Holstein Kiel averaged 3.2 yellow cards per match in last 15; St Pauli averaged 1.7.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9 per match.
- Last 5 H2H with card data: totals of 5, 5, 6, 3, 7 (4 of 5 over 4.5).
- Kiel's recent league matches saw 4+ cards in 4 of last 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 27.8% vs our estimate ~35% leaves no edge; odds too short for a low-probability event in a potentially tense derby.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L1-2Holstein KielvFC St. PauliApr 12, 2025BL

L3-1FC St. PaulivHolstein KielNov 29, 2024BL

L3-4Holstein KielvFC St. PauliFeb 23, 20242.

L5-1FC St. PaulivHolstein KielSep 17, 20232.

L3-4Holstein KielvFC St. PauliMay 19, 20232.

St Pauli unbeaten in 5 meetings5.4 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	2-2	1	D
10	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D

Recent Form

Holstein Kiel

D2-2SV Darmstadt 98Aug 82.

L1-31899 HoffenheimJul 29FRI

L0-3FSV Mainz 05Jul 25FRI

D2-2SwanseaJul 18FRI

W4-1Al-Ahli JeddahJul 15FRI

W2-1SonderjyskeJul 10FRI

L1-3FC FredericiaJul 4FRI

L1-2Dynamo DresdenMay 172.

L1-31. FC MagdeburgMay 92.

W2-0Eintracht BraunschweigMay 22.

W1-0Hertha BSCApr 252.

W3-01. FC KaiserslauternApr 172.

W2-1Fortuna DüsseldorfApr 102.

D0-0Preußen MünsterApr 52.

W3-2VfL BochumMar 222.

St Pauli

D1-1SpVgg Greuther FürthAug 92.

D2-2Deportivo La CorunaAug 1FRI

L1-4BournemouthJul 24FRI

W2-1HNK GoricaJul 19FRI

W4-1SV Babelsberg 03Jul 11FRI

W3-1Kickers EmdenJul 4FRI

W6-2Altona 93Jun 30FRI

L1-3VfL WolfsburgMay 16BL

L1-2RB LeipzigMay 9BL

L1-2FSV Mainz 05May 3BL

L0-21. FC HeidenheimApr 25BL

D1-11. FC KölnApr 17BL

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

Squad & Injuries

Holstein Kiel

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

St Pauli

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Draw

Over 4.5

Holstein Kiel or Draw

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Holstein Kiel

St Pauli

Squad & Injuries

Holstein Kiel

St Pauli