BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

RB Leipzig2St Pauli1

HT 1–0Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 13–7On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:42 · Europe/Bucharest

RB Leipzig's dominant home form and St Pauli's dreadful away record make a home win highly probable, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is Leipzig team total over 1.5 goals at 1.30, where our 78% estimate narrowly beats the implied 76.9%. Expect Leipzig to control the match and score at least twice, with over 2.5 total goals also likely, though the market is efficient.

Context

St Pauli are level on points with Wolfsburg for the relegation playoff place with two rounds left.
- A German report framed the trips to Leipzig and Wolfsburg as season-defining relegation matches.
- St Pauli have won only 2 of 16 away league matches this season, conceding 27 goals.
Leipzig have scored 2+ goals in 12 of 16 home league matches this season.
- Leipzig average 2.38 goals per home game, with 38 goals in 16 matches.
- St Pauli have conceded 2+ goals in 10 of 16 away matches.
Lukeba is questionable with a muscle injury; Raum is questionable with a groin injury.
- Both are regular starters in Leipzig's defense.
- St Pauli have scored in 3 of their last 5 away matches, showing some attacking threat.
Leipzig are unbeaten in the last 4 H2Hs (2 wins, 2 draws).
- The last two meetings in Leipzig ended 4-2 (DFB Pokal) and 2-0 (Bundesliga).
- St Pauli have not beaten Leipzig since 2016.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

RB Leipzig

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Leipzig's dominant home form (11W-2D-3L) and St Pauli's dreadful away record (2W-3D-11L) make a home win highly probable, though the odds offer no edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

RB Leipzig or Draw

1.07fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

St Pauli's extremely low away win rate (2 in 16) and Leipzig's solid home form make a St Pauli victory very unlikely, supporting a double chance for the home side.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half stats indicate a high probability of at least one goal before the interval, driven by Leipzig's attacking intent and St Pauli's defensive lapses.

Total Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

−4.0ppshort

Leipzig's home games are high-scoring, and St Pauli's defense concedes heavily on the road, pointing to a match with at least three goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
RB Leipzig's strong home form and St Pauli's poor away record, combined with Leipzig's historical dominance in this fixture, make a home win highly likely.
- RB Leipzig home record: 11W-2D-3L, 38GF-19GA in 16 matches this season
- St Pauli away record: 2W-3D-11L, 11GF-27GA in 16 matches this season
- H2H last 4 meetings: RB Leipzig unbeaten (2W-2D), last two home H2H: 4-2 and 2-0
- RB Leipzig last 5 form: 4W-0D-1L, St Pauli last 5 form: 0W-2D-3L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRB LeipzigEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's extremely low away win rate and Leipzig's solid home form make a St Pauli victory very unlikely, supporting a double chance for the home side.
- RB Leipzig home losses: only 3 in 16 matches this season
- St Pauli away wins: only 2 in 16 matches this season
- H2H: St Pauli have not beaten RB Leipzig since 2016
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRB Leipzig or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leipzig's tendency to start strong at home and St Pauli's vulnerability early in away matches give the hosts an edge to lead at the break.
- RB Leipzig leading at half-time in 33% of matches overall, but 44% at home (7/16)
- St Pauli trailing at half-time in 40% of matches overall, 50% away (8/16)
- RB Leipzig first half goals at home: 0.9 per match average
- St Pauli first half goals conceded away: 0.6 per match average
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRB LeipzigEstimated chance55%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leipzig's home games are high-scoring, and St Pauli's defense concedes heavily on the road, pointing to a match with at least three goals.
- RB Leipzig home matches average 3.56 total goals (38GF+19GA in 16 games)
- St Pauli away matches average 2.38 total goals (11GF+27GA in 16 games)
- Last two H2H at Leipzig: 4-2 and 2-0 (both over 2.5)
- RB Leipzig last 5 matches: 3 of 5 over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While Leipzig often keeps clean sheets at home, St Pauli's desperation in a relegation battle and recent scoring form suggest they can find the net, making both teams to score a reasonable outcome.
- RB Leipzig home clean sheets: 5 in 16 matches (31%)
- St Pauli away failed to score: 8 in 16 matches (50%)
- H2H last meeting: 1-1 draw, both scored
- St Pauli scored in 3 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leipzig's home clean sheet percentage is not dominant, and St Pauli's need for points in a relegation fight increases the likelihood they score, so a home clean sheet is less probable.
- RB Leipzig home clean sheet rate: 31% (5/16)
- St Pauli away scoring rate: 50% (8/16 failed to score)
- St Pauli scored in 3 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Pauli to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leipzig's potent home attack and St Pauli's leaky away defense strongly support the home team scoring at least two goals.
- RB Leipzig home goals per match: 2.38 (38 in 16)
- RB Leipzig scored 2+ in 12 of 16 home matches (75%)
- H2H at Leipzig: scored 4 and 2 in last two meetings
- St Pauli away conceded 2+ in 10 of 16 away matches (63%)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRB Leipzig over 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's away scoring record is very poor, and Leipzig's home defense is relatively solid, making it likely the visitors score at most one goal.
- St Pauli away goals per match: 0.69 (11 in 16)
- St Pauli scored 0 or 1 goal in 14 of 16 away matches (88%)
- RB Leipzig home conceded 1.19 goals per match (19 in 16)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSt Pauli under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half stats indicate a high probability of at least one goal before the interval, driven by Leipzig's attacking intent and St Pauli's defensive lapses.
- RB Leipzig home first half goals: 0.9 per match, scored in 11 of 16 home first halves (69%)
- St Pauli away first half goals conceded: 0.6 per match, conceded in 10 of 16 away first halves (63%)
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at half-time, but previous two at Leipzig had first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leipzig's strong second-half scoring at home and St Pauli's tendency to concede after the break suggest the second half could see multiple goals.
- RB Leipzig home second half goals: 1.5 per match (24 in 16)
- St Pauli away second half goals conceded: 1.1 per match (17 in 16)
- Combined second half average: 2.6 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages hover around 9.5-10 per match, and Leipzig's home dominance could force more corners, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- RB Leipzig home corners per match: 5.4, opponent corners: 4.3, total 9.7
- St Pauli away corners per match: 4.2, opponent corners: 5.6, total 9.8
- Last H2H: total corners 7 (3+4), but previous meeting at Leipzig: 10 (6+4)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The card averages are near the line, but the high-stakes relegation context for St Pauli could lead to more fouls and cards, slightly favoring the over.
- RB Leipzig home yellow cards per match: 1.9, opponent: 1.6, total 3.5
- St Pauli away yellow cards per match: 1.6, opponent: 1.4, total 3.0
- Relegation pressure may increase St Pauli's aggression and card count
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1FC St. PaulivRB LeipzigJan 27, 2026BL

W2-0RB LeipzigvFC St. PauliFeb 9, 2025BL

W4-2RB LeipzigvFC St. PauliOct 29, 2024DFB

D0-0FC St. PaulivRB LeipzigSep 22, 2024BL

L1-0FC St. PaulivRB LeipzigFeb 12, 20162.

RB Leipzig: 2 clean sheetsSt Pauli: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	RB Leipzig Champions League	32	19	5	8	63-42	62	LWWWW
17	St Pauli Relegation	32	6	8	18	27-55	26	LLDLD

36pt gap between teamsSt Pauli in relegation zone

Recent Form

RB Leipzig

L1-4Bayer LeverkusenMay 2BL

W3-1Union BerlinApr 24BL

W3-1Eintracht FrankfurtApr 18BL

W1-0Borussia MönchengladbachApr 11BL

W2-1Werder BremenApr 4BL

W5-01899 HoffenheimMar 20BL

L0-1VfB StuttgartMar 15BL

W2-1FC AugsburgMar 7BL

W2-1Hamburger SVMar 1BL

D2-2Borussia DortmundFeb 21BL

D2-2VfL WolfsburgFeb 15BL

L0-2Bayern MünchenFeb 11DFB

W2-11. FC KölnFeb 8BL

L1-2FSV Mainz 05Jan 31BL

D1-1FC St. PauliJan 27BL

St Pauli

L1-2FSV Mainz 05May 3BL

L0-21. FC HeidenheimApr 25BL

D1-11. FC KölnApr 17BL

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

W2-1VfB StuttgartFeb 7BL

L0-3Bayer LeverkusenFeb 3DFB

L1-2FC AugsburgJan 31BL

D1-1RB LeipzigJan 27BL

Squad & Injuries

RB Leipzig

12 out

Attackers2/9

×#6

Midfielders5

Defenders4/9

×#23

×#22

×#23

×#22

Goalkeeper2/3

×#25

#6 E. Banzuzi — Knee Injury

V. Gebel — Knee Injury

S. Sani — Hip Injury

#25 L. Zingerle — Wrist Injury

#23 C. Lukeba — Muscle Injury

#22 D. Raum — Groin Injury

#6 E. Banzuzi — Knee Injury

V. Gebel — Knee Injury

S. Sani — Hip Injury

#25 L. Zingerle — Wrist Injury

#23 C. Lukeba — Muscle Injury

#22 D. Raum — Groin Injury

St Pauli

6 out

Attackers2/8

×#26

Midfielders4/8

×#28

×#6

×#28

×#6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#28 M. Pereira Lage — Knee Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#28 M. Pereira Lage — Knee Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig or Draw

RB Leipzig

Over 0.5

Over 2.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals7 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

RB Leipzig

St Pauli

Squad & Injuries

RB Leipzig

St Pauli