St Pauli - Cologne

🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished

Friday, April 17, 2026 at 18:35

Quick Take

Cologne are heavy favorites despite playing away, backed by 5-game H2H unbeaten streak, St Pauli's catastrophic form (1 pt in 5, 0.7 goals/game), and 28.6% home win rate.

Total Goals AwayOver 0.5 (Cologne)0.78%-2.0pp

Draw No BetCologne0.68%+10.2pp

Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.50.6%+8.7pp

Context Signals

Draw No Bet — Cologne

HIGHMarket

Cologne unbeaten in last 5 H2H matchups and St Pauli's catastrophic form (LDLLD, 1 pt in 5) combined with missing 3 midfielders make an away victory or draw the overwhelming structural outcome.

•Cologne 3W-2D in last 5 H2H vs St Pauli
•St Pauli home record: 4W-4D-6L (28.6% win rate)
•St Pauli form: LDLLD with 0.7 goals/match in last 10

Total Goals Away — Over 0.5 (Cologne)

MEDIUMMarket

Cologne scored in all 5 recent H2H meetings and in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches; St Pauli concede 1.79 goals/game at home. HIGH confidence conviction overrides tight odds.

•Cologne scored in all 5 H2H meetings (1, 4, 5, 4, 3 goals)
•St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home (25 GA in 14 matches)
•Cologne 1.5 goals/game on average this season

Corners Over/Under — Under 9.5

MEDIUMMarket

Combined corners profile (St Pauli 3.3 + Cologne 5.4 = 8.7 avg) sits comfortably below 9.5; low-possession St Pauli (38.5% avg) generates minimal attacking corners, anchoring total downward despite Cologne's moderate away form.

•St Pauli avg 3.3 corners in last 10 matches
•Combined average 8.7 corners vs 9.5 line
•St Pauli possession avg 38.5% (low-block style limits corners)

Betting Edges

Implied: 80.0% → Our estimate: 78% → Edge: -2pts

•Cologne scored in all 5 H2H meetings (1, 4, 5, 4, 3 goals)
•St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home (25 GA in 14 matches)
•Cologne 1.5 goals/game on average this season

Implied: 57.8% → Our estimate: 68% → Edge: +10.2pts

•Cologne 3W-2D in last 5 H2H vs St Pauli
•St Pauli home record: 4W-4D-6L (28.6% win rate)
•St Pauli form: LDLLD with 0.7 goals/match in last 10

Implied: 51.3% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +8.7pts

•St Pauli avg 3.3 corners in last 10 matches
•Combined average 8.7 corners vs 9.5 line
•St Pauli possession avg 38.5% (low-block style limits corners)

Model probabilities

Away Goals TotalOver 0.578%High

Cologne's consistent scoring in recent form and every H2H meeting, combined with St Pauli's leaky home defense, makes a Cologne goal near-certain.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Home Clean SheetNo78%High

St Pauli's defensive record is among the worst in the Bundesliga with 50 goals conceded, and Cologne have scored in every H2H meeting, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Double ChanceDraw or Cologne68%High

St Pauli's weak home record, inability to score (worst GF in league at 25), and Cologne's H2H dominance make avoiding a St Pauli win the strongest structural play.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Asian HandicapCologne +0.568%High

Cologne's H2H dominance (unbeaten in 5), St Pauli's dire home win rate, and St Pauli's injury-depleted attack make it highly probable Cologne avoid defeat.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.562%Medium

Both teams produce few first-half goals — St Pauli's 0.4 FH GF is particularly anemic — and the most recent H2H saw no first-half goals, supporting a cagey opening 45 minutes.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 10.560%Medium

St Pauli's very low corner count (3.3 avg) drags the combined total well below 10.5, and with their low-block possession style (38.5% avg), they generate minimal attacking corner situations.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.558%Medium

The combined card average of 3.8 sits above the 3.5 line, and Cologne's propensity for cards (2.3/game) combined with a high-stakes relegation context for St Pauli should produce enough fouls to generate 4+ bookings.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Home Shots TotalUnder 10.558%Medium

St Pauli's low possession style (38.5%) severely limits shot volume, their average of 9.7 sits below the 10.5 line, and key attacking absences further diminish their ability to generate chances.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Both Teams to ScoreYes55%Medium

Both teams concede nearly 1.8 goals per game in their respective home/away splits, Cologne are missing two defenders, and the most recent H2H was 1-1, making mutual scoring likely despite St Pauli's general bluntness.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.552%Medium

Both defenses are porous (50 GA each in 29 games), and the H2H pattern overwhelmingly produces 3+ goal games (4 of last 5 meetings), supporting over 2.5 despite St Pauli's low scoring output.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Match WinnerCologne38%Medium

Despite St Pauli's home relegation desperation, their abysmal form (1 pt in 5), major personnel losses in midfield/attack, and Cologne's dominant H2H record make an away win the most likely single outcome.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Double Chance Draw or Cologne @ 1.40:Market has priced in 71.4% probability vs our 68% estimate; the market is slightly ahead of fair value here. Minimal edge opportunity and tight odds leave little margin for error.

Clean Sheet - Home No @ 1.73:Predictor estimates 78% probability but only 57.8% is implied by odds, creating a suspicious +20pts edge that exceeds the 15pt efficiency threshold. Bookmakers price clean sheets efficiently; this suggests model overconfidence on a binary outcome rather than genuine mispricing.

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 @ 1.85:Predictor MEDIUM confidence (52%) sits below the 54.1% implied probability; no value at fair odds despite H2H pattern of high-scoring matches. Lack of margin does not justify a bet at breakeven odds.

St Pauli face Cologne in a Bundesliga relegation-pressure clash on April 17, with the visitors holding a decisive structural advantage despite playing away. Cologne's head-to-head dominance is striking: they have won 7 of 11 meetings since 2007 and remain unbeaten in their last five encounters (3W-2D), including a 1-1 draw in December 2025. St Pauli, by contrast, have failed to win any of their last five H2H meetings and arrive in catastrophic form—just 1 point from their last five Bundesliga matches (LDLLD)—while missing three midfielders and one attacker from their lineup.

Recent Form

St Pauli

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

W2-1VfB StuttgartFeb 7BL

L0-3Bayer LeverkusenFeb 3DFB

Cologne

W3-1Werder BremenApr 12BL

D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 5BL

D3-3Borussia MönchengladbachMar 21BL

D1-1Hamburger SVMar 14BL

L1-2Borussia DortmundMar 7BL

L0-2FC AugsburgFeb 27BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimFeb 21BL

L1-3VfB StuttgartFeb 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigFeb 8BL

W1-0VfL WolfsburgJan 30BL

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	St Pauli Relegation Playoffs	29	6	7	16	25-50	25	LDLLD
13	Cologne	29	7	9	13	43-50	30	WDDDL

5pt gap between teamsSt Pauli in relegation zone

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D1-11. FC KölnvFC St. PauliDec 6, 2025BL

L4-11. FC KölnvFC St. PauliFeb 8, 20192.

W3-5FC St. Pauliv1. FC KölnSep 2, 20182.

L4-01. FC KölnvFC St. PauliMay 4, 20142.

W0-3FC St. Pauliv1. FC KölnNov 29, 20132.

4.4 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

8 out

Attackers2/8

×#26

Midfielders6/8

×#16

×#6

×#8

×#16

×#6

×#8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

#16 J. Fujita — Yellow Cards

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

#16 J. Fujita — Yellow Cards

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

Cologne

4 out

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders2/8

×#4

Goalkeeper3

#4 T. Hubers — Knee Injury

L. Kilian — Knee Injury

#4 T. Hubers — Knee Injury

L. Kilian — Knee Injury