BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

St Pauli0Bayern Munich5

HT 0–1Sat 11 Apr 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 23%–77%ShotsShots 6–20On targetOn target 3–8CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Apr 2026, 00:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Bayern's flawless away record (11W-3D, 3.14 goals/game) and 8-of-9 H2H dominance make them clear favorites despite St Pauli's survival desperation; back Bayern outright, Over 2.5 goals, and Bayern 2+ as overlapping HIGH-confidence edges.

Avoid Asian handicap -1.5 (marginal edge only, execution risk from Bayern rotation).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's perfect away record (0 losses in 14 away games), total H2H dominance across all 5 recent meetings, and St Pauli's injury-ravaged squad missing 5 players including their captain overwhelm any motivational advantage the hosts carry from their relegation fight.
- Bayern away record 2025-26: 11W 3D 0L, scoring 3.14 goals/game away from home
- Bayern won all 5 recent H2H meetings (3-1, 3-2, 1-0, 8-1, 3-0); St Pauli have never beaten Bayern in Bundesliga
- St Pauli home record 4W 4D 5L this season (13 games), conceding 1.54 goals/game at home
- St Pauli missing captain Irvine (suspended), attacker Jones, defender Saliakas, and 2 more midfielders
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayern MunichEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H record of zero St Pauli wins in 9 Bundesliga meetings combined with Bayern's near-invincible 2025-26 season (1 league loss total, 0 away losses) makes the probability of a St Pauli outright win extremely low.
- St Pauli have never beaten Bayern Munich across 9 Bundesliga meetings (8 Bayern wins, 1 draw)
- Bayern have lost just 1 of 28 Bundesliga matches this season (23W 4D 1L)
- Bayern unbeaten in 14 away Bundesliga matches this season (11W 3D 0L)
- St Pauli rank 16th with 25 points, a -20 goal difference, and 5 players missing
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bayern MunichEstimated chance93%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's average away margin of +2.14 goals and H2H pattern of 3 of 5 meetings decided by 2+ goals support a comfortable win, though St Pauli's relegation desperation at home and the possibility of Bayern rotation with the title secured prevent higher confidence.
- Bayern won by 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 H2H (3-1, 8-1, 3-0); only 1 meeting was decided by a single goal
- Bayern away this season: average winning margin of +2.14 goals per away game (44 GF - 14 GA over 14 games)
- St Pauli season goal difference -20 across 28 games; -6 in 13 home matches
- St Pauli missing 5 players including captain Irvine and attacker Jones, reducing competitive capacity
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonBayern Munich -1.5Estimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's prolific attack (100 goals in 28 league games, 3.57/game) combined with H2H patterns showing 4 of 5 meetings clearing 2.5 goals and St Pauli's defensive absences makes this the most statistically supported goal total outcome.
- Bayern average 3.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game over last 10 matches (4.4 total goals/game)
- Last 5 H2H produced totals of 4, 5, 1, 9, and 3 goals (4 of 5 meetings over 2.5)
- Bayern away this season: 44 GF and 14 GA in 14 games (4.14 total goals/game away)
- St Pauli missing defender Saliakas and captain Irvine, weakening defensive structure
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While St Pauli's low scoring rate (0.8/game over last 10) and H2H shutouts (failed to score in 2 of last 5 meetings) create doubt, Bayern conceding in 4 of their last 5 matches and St Pauli's relegation desperation at home narrowly tip the balance toward both teams scoring.
- Bayern conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches (vs Real Madrid 2-1, Freiburg 3-2, Atalanta 4-1, Leverkusen 1-1)
- St Pauli scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings (1 goal in Nov 2024, 2 in Mar 2025, 1 in May 2011)
- Bayern concede 1.0 goals/game away this season (14 GA in 14 away matches)
- St Pauli average 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches but scored in their last 3 fixtures (1, 1, 1)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's 70% rate of leading at half-time and 1.3 first-half goals average across their last 10 matches, combined with 4 of their last 5 fixtures producing first-half goals, strongly supports at least one goal before the break.
- Bayern average 1.3 first-half goals/game and lead at half-time in 70% of their last 10 matches
- 4 of Bayern's last 5 matches had first-half goals (only the 3-2 win at Freiburg was 0-0 at HT)
- St Pauli concede 0.5 first-half goals/game over last 10; trailing at half-time in 30% of those matches
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had first-half goals (HT results: 1-0, unknown, 0-0, HT goals in 8-1 and 3-0)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's extraordinary scoring rate (3.14/game away, 3.57/game overall) and their H2H pattern of scoring 2+ in 4 of 5 recent meetings, combined with St Pauli's defensive absences, makes Bayern scoring at least twice a high-probability outcome.
- Bayern scored 100 goals in 28 Bundesliga matches this season (3.57/game); 44 goals in 14 away games (3.14/game)
- Bayern scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (3-1, 3-2, 8-1, 3-0; exception: 1-0)
- Bayern scored 2+, 3+, 4+, 4+, and 1 in their last 5 matches across all competitions
- St Pauli missing defender Saliakas and captain Irvine, weakening defensive organization
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBayern Munich Over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern have scored in every away Bundesliga match this season and in all 5 H2H meetings, making a St Pauli clean sheet extremely unlikely regardless of the home side's defensive effort and motivation.
- Bayern have scored in every single away Bundesliga match this season (44 goals in 14 away games)
- Bayern scored in all 5 recent H2H meetings (1, 8, 3, 2, 3 goals)
- Bayern average 3.3 goals/game over last 10 matches across all competitions
- St Pauli concede 1.54 goals/game at home this season (20 GA in 13 home games)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBayern Munich to scoreEstimated chance85%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's high shot volume (20/game) and territorial dominance (64.3% possession) against a low-block St Pauli side will generate sustained pressure in the final third, with 3 of Bayern's last 5 matches producing 10+ combined corners.
- Bayern average 6.6 corners/game over last 10 matches; their last 5 games produced 11, 8, 12, 6, and 1 team corners
- Bayern's last 5 matches had combined corner totals of 19, 13, 13, 9, and 5 (3 of 5 over 9.5)
- St Pauli average 3.5 corners/game but opponents average approximately 5-7 corners against them
- Bayern's 20 shots/game and 64.3% average possession generates significant territorial pressure
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined SOT averages from both teams' last 10 matches total 11.7 per game, driven primarily by Bayern's dominant 8.6 SOT average, making 10+ combined shots on target a likely outcome.
- Bayern average 8.6 SOT/game over last 10; St Pauli average 3.1 SOT/game (combined average 11.7)
- Bayern's last 5 matches: 8, 9, 9, 8, and 5 SOT (average 7.8 alone)
- St Pauli opponents have averaged 6.2 SOT/game against them over last 5 matches (8, 6, 4, 2, 11)
- Bayern's 20 shots/game volume with 43% on-target conversion supports sustained SOT output
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average of 3.4/game sits close to the 3.5 line, but the high-stakes relegation context for St Pauli (playing a must-not-lose match) and the physical 19.1 combined fouls/game rate should push the total card count over in a pressurized atmosphere.
- Bayern average 1.9 yellows/game over last 10 (4, 3, 1, 0, 4 in last 5 matches)
- St Pauli average 1.5 yellows/game over last 10 (2, 1, 2, 2, 2 in last 5 matches)
- Combined foul average: 19.1/game (St Pauli 9.7 + Bayern 9.4 fouls/game over last 10)
- St Pauli had a red card in their most recent match (Irvine vs Union Berlin) showing high-intensity play
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L3-1Bayern MünchenvFC St. PauliNov 29, 2025BL

L3-2Bayern MünchenvFC St. PauliMar 29, 2025BL

W0-1FC St. PaulivBayern MünchenNov 9, 2024BL

W1-8FC St. PaulivBayern MunichMay 7, 2011BL

L3-0Bayern MunichvFC St. PauliDec 11, 2010BL

4.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	St Pauli Relegation Playoffs	28	6	7	15	25-45	25	DLLDW
1	Bayern Munich Champions League	28	23	4	1	100-27	73	WWDWW

48pt gap between teamsBayern Munich leads the leagueSt Pauli in relegation zone

Recent Form

St Pauli

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

W2-1VfB StuttgartFeb 7BL

L0-3Bayer LeverkusenFeb 3DFB

L1-2FC AugsburgJan 31BL

Bayern Munich

W2-1Real MadridApr 7UEF

W3-2SC FreiburgApr 4BL

W4-0Union BerlinMar 21BL

W4-1AtalantaMar 18UEF

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 14BL

W6-1AtalantaMar 10UEF

W4-1Borussia MönchengladbachMar 6BL

W3-2Borussia DortmundFeb 28BL

W3-2Eintracht FrankfurtFeb 21BL

W3-0Werder BremenFeb 14BL

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

10 out

Attackers2/8

×#26

Midfielders6/7

×#7

×#6

×#8

×#7

×#6

×#8

Defenders2/10

×#2

Goalkeeper3

#7 J. Irvine — Red Card

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#2 M. Saliakas — Thigh Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

#7 J. Irvine — Red Card

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#2 M. Saliakas — Thigh Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

Bayern Munich

10 out

Attackers2

Midfielders6/15

×#49

×#42

×#36

×#49

×#42

×#36

Defenders2/11

×#30

Goalkeeper2/6

×#26

#49 M. Cardozo — Thigh Injury

#42 L. Karl — Muscle Injury

#30 C. Kiala — Ankle Injury

#36 W. Mike — Hip Injury

#26 S. Ulreich — Muscle Injury

#49 M. Cardozo — Thigh Injury

#42 L. Karl — Muscle Injury

#30 C. Kiala — Ankle Injury

#36 W. Mike — Hip Injury

#26 S. Ulreich — Muscle Injury

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Bayern Munich

Draw or Bayern Munich

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Pauli

Bayern Munich

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

Bayern Munich