Tommy Paul #15United States22 – 0Luciano Darderi #23Italy0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Paul's stronger serve and point totals on hard courts give him the advantage.

• Paul is 10-5 on current hard courts; Darderi is 8-7.
• Paul has won 51.5% of total points on hard courts, Darderi 49.8%.
• Paul has won 53.6% of hard-court games, Darderi 49.5%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Paul's positive game difference and higher point totals make a three-plus game margin more likely than not.

• Paul's current hard-court game margin is +30 over 15 matches, or +2.0 per match.
• Darderi's current hard-court game margin is -4 over 15 matches.
• Paul -2.5 needs a game margin of three or more.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Paul has started hard-court matches much more strongly than Darderi.

• Paul has won seven of 11 first sets on hard courts.
• Darderi has won two of 11 first sets on hard courts.
• Paul averages 5.0 first-set games won to Darderi's 3.82.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Paul has a slight edge in second-set results, and his overall hard-court point totals are higher.

• Paul's second-set record is 6-5 on hard courts.
• Darderi's second-set record is 5-6 on hard courts.
• Paul has a higher overall hard-court point total than Darderi.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Straight-set outcomes are more frequent in both hard-court samples.

• Paul has six straight-set matches in his 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
• Darderi has eight straight-set matches in his 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
• Paul has four 2-0 wins and Darderi has six 0-2 losses in the sample.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tiebreaks appeared in only a minority of hard-court matches for each player.

• Tiebreaks appeared in three of 11 hard-court matches for Paul.
• Tiebreaks appeared in three of 11 hard-court matches for Darderi.
• Both players have matches with breaks of serve in the sample.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined ace averages sit just below the line.

• Paul averages 6.9 aces per match on hard courts.
• Darderi averages 6.4 aces per match on hard courts.
• The combined average is 13.3 aces, against a line of 13.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined double-fault averages are below the line, and Paul rarely doubles.

• Paul averages 2.0 double faults per match on hard courts.
• Darderi averages 3.3 double faults per match on hard courts.
• The combined average is 5.3 double faults, against a line of 5.5.