AustriaATP ViennaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tommy Paul #15United States2Andrey Rublev #22Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-2Tue 27 Oct 2026, 12:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTommy Paul · 7 places

Tommy Paul

United States

American right-hander born 17 May 1997. Reached a career-high No. 8 in June 2025; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #15
Peak ranking: #8 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 5 on 13 September 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #22
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 16:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Paul's better recent hard-court form against Rublev's serve and 5-1 head-to-head lead is the tension in this Vienna first round, and both men have been going the distance.

Paul is the slightly more likely winner, but 1.6 does not justify it; the prices that do offer something are three sets or more at 2.2, Rublev to win the match at 2.3 and Rublev to take the second set at 2.2.

Context

Rublev's head-to-head lead is his clearest claim to this match, even if the last meeting is three years old.
Rublev has won five of six meetings, the last two in straight sets, with the most recent finishing 7-5 7-5 in October 2023. That record is the main counterweight to Paul's better recent form, though the series is old: Paul's only win came in 2021, and the two have not met since 2023.
- Rublev beat Paul 7-5 7-5 on 11 October 2023.
- Rublev has won five of the six career meetings, including the 2022 and 2023 matches.
- Paul's only win in the series came on 11 October 2021, 6-4 3-6 7-5.
Rublev's serve is the part of his game that holds up best indoors, where cheap points matter.
Rublev's 76.6% first-serve points won and 10.4 aces per match over 15 matches give him a route to games that Paul, at 72.6% and 7.1, does not match. That serving keeps him competitive through a patchy run of results. The counterweight is his second serve: Rublev wins 50.2% of those points, below Paul's 52.7%, so the gap narrows once the first ball misses.
- Rublev won 76.6% of first-serve points (613 of 800) across his last 15 matches.
- Rublev averaged 10.4 aces per match (156 aces in 15 matches).
- Rublev won 50.2% of second-serve points (244 of 486) over the same 15 matches.
Paul's return games have been more productive than his overall game count suggests.
Paul converted 51 of 117 break points (43.6%) across his last 15 matches and saved 70 of 106 (66%) on his own serve. Rublev's conversion rate over his last 15 is 26.7%, so the chances Paul does create may be worth more than the many Rublev builds. The sample is 15 matches, and break-point counts swing widely from one match to the next.
- Paul converted 51 of 117 break points (43.6%) over his last 15 matches.
- Paul saved 70 of 106 break points (66%) over the same 15 matches.
This establishes the fixture as an opening-round main-draw match at Vienna. It frames the immediate tournament stage for both players and is relevant to the match schedule. The listing contains no player-specific availability, preparation, or court-condition development.
- The Vienna schedule lists Paul versus Rublev as a round-of-32 match on 26 October.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 16:42 · Europe/BucharestStats Insiderwww.statsinsider.com.au · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paul's better recent hard-court record and slightly stronger game-winning rate make him the more likely winner.
- Paul is 10-5 over his last 15 matches and 7-4 in completed hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev is 7-8 over his last 15 and 6-6 in the same hard-court set sample.
- Paul has won 53.1% of hard-court games; Rublev has won 51.4%.
- Rublev leads the head-to-head 5-1, but their last meeting was in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTommy PaulEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Paul's stronger recent game margin and higher game-win rate make him slightly more likely to finish with more total games.
- Paul's current hard-court gamesWon-gamesLost is 223-197, a +26 margin over 15 matches.
- Rublev's current hard-court gamesWon-gamesLost is 203-192, a +11 margin over 14 matches.
- Paul has won 53.1% of hard-court games to Rublev's 51.4%.
- Paul is 10-5 over his last 15; Rublev is 7-8.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTommy Paul -0.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent totals are close to the line but slightly favor a match going over.
- Paul's hard-court best-of-three matches average 24.2 total games.
- Rublev's hard-court best-of-three matches average 25.1 total games.
- The combined average sits just above the 24.5 line.
- Paul and Rublev each have six three-set matches in their hard-court samples.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have recently gone the distance often enough to make three sets slightly more likely than two.
- Paul has played six three-set matches in 11 completed hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev has played six three-set matches in 12 completed hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Paul's set sample includes four 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- Rublev's set sample includes three 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Paul's slightly better recent match record and first-set split make him a narrow favourite for the opening set.
- Paul has won 6 of 11 first sets on hard courts.
- Rublev has won 6 of 12 first sets on hard courts.
- Paul is 10-5 over his last 15; Rublev is 7-8.
- Rublev leads the head-to-head 5-1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTommy PaulEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paul's small recent edge in second-set results and overall games makes him a slight favourite.
- Paul has won 6 of 11 second sets on hard courts.
- Rublev has won 6 of 12 second sets on hard courts.
- Paul has won 53.1% of hard-court games; Rublev has won 51.4%.
- Paul is 10-5 over his last 15; Rublev is 7-8.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTommy PaulEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent completed hard-court matches did not include a tiebreak.
- No tiebreak occurred in 8 of Paul's 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- No tiebreak occurred in 7 of Rublev's 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Paul's matches with a tiebreak are 3 of 11.
- Rublev's matches with a tiebreak are 5 of 12.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault averages sit comfortably below the line.
- Paul averages 2.1 double faults per match.
- Rublev averages 2.8 double faults per hard-court match.
- The combined average is 4.9, below the 5.5 line.
- Rublev has averaged 2.8 double faults across 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit just above the line, with Rublev providing most of the serving power.
- Paul averages 7.1 aces per match over his last 15.
- Rublev averages 10.6 aces per hard-court match.
- The combined average is 17.7, just above the 17.5 line.
- Rublev has averaged 10.6 aces across 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 17.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Tommy Paul: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Tommy Paul matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tommy Paul15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#71Kamil Majchrzak2-0#24Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·62%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#71Kamil Majchrzak2-0#24Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

62%probability

Kamil Majchrzak won

Missed

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-1#25Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·62%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-1#25Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

62%probability

Hubert Hurkacz won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#200SoonWoo Kwon0-3#25Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200SoonWoo Kwon0-3#25Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

78%probability

Tommy Paul won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#125Alexandre Muller0-3#24Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#125Alexandre Muller0-3#24Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

82%probability

Tommy Paul won

Matched

21 Jun·ATP London

#27Francisco Cerundolo2-1#28Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·58%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

ATP London

#27Francisco Cerundolo2-1#28Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

58%probability

Francisco Cerundolo won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-5 (6 meetings)

L7-5 7-5Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22Oct 11, 2023

L7-5 6-3Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22Oct 14, 2022

W6-4 3-6 7-5Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22Oct 11, 2021

L6-7(5) 6-3 6-4Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22May 4, 2021

L6-1 3-6 6-2Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22Sep 23, 2020

L7-6(5) 6-4Tommy Paul#15vAndrey Rublev#22Aug 2, 2018

Andrey Rublev dominates (6 meetings)6 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tommy Paul

10W 5L

6-3 7-5#14Taylor Fritz 6-4 3-6 6-3#94Corentin Moutet

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#100Benjamin Bonzi

6-3 1-6 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev

7-6(5) 6-4#41Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-2#32Valentin Vacherot

6-2 6-2#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-1 6-2#31Alejandro Tabilo

6-4 6-3 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#19Alexander Bublik

6-2 6-3 5-7 6-4#95Dino Prizmic

6-7(3) 6-1 6-3 6-3#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

2-6 6-3 6-4#6Flavio Cobolli

4-6 7-6(6) 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

3-6 6-3 6-4#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Andrey Rublev

7W 8L

6-4 3-6 6-3#79Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#124Rei Sakamoto

1-6 6-2 6-3#8Alex De Minaur

6-2 3-6 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)#60Tallon Griekspoor

7-5 6-4#5Daniil Medvedev

7-6(0) 6-1#85Kyrian Jacquet

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1#93Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-3#86Rinky Hijikata

6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4#42Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5)#121Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-4#52Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 6-1#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#248Juncheng Shang

3-6 6-3 6-4#48Luca Van Assche

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TPTommy PaulPaul

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrey RublevRublevAR

Tommy Paul carries the stronger recent form — Andrey Rublev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.1%+1.1pp62.2%

1st Serve Won72.6%+4.0pp76.6%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+2.5pp50.2%

Aces / Match7.1+3.310.4

Double Faults / Match2.10.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.9%+1.6pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.6%+16.9pp26.7%

Break Pts Saved66.0%+3.6pp62.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.1%—50.8%

Serve · 2–3

61.1%1st Serve In+1.1pp62.2%

72.6%1st Serve Won+4.0pp76.6%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp50.2%

7.1Aces / Match+3.310.4

2.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

37.9%Return Pts Won+1.6pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

43.6%Break Pts Converted+16.9pp26.7%

66.0%Break Pts Saved+3.6pp62.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.1%Total Pts Won—50.8%

Tommy Paul

Andrey Rublev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Tommy Paul -0.5

Tommy Paul

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul

Andrey Rublev

Stat Battle