United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Max Hans Rehberg #262Germany2Stefan Kozlov #278United States0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Thu 29 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Hans Rehberg · 16 places

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Stefan Kozlov

United States

The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 295, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #278
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Rehberg arrives with the stronger hard-court record and a 6-3 6-3 win on 27 October, but he has dropped five of six opening sets on hard, giving Kozlov a route into the match.

Rehberg is the likelier winner, yet the price at 1.45 is too short; the two prices that offer something are Rehberg to win 2-1 at 4 and Kozlov to take the first set at 2.4.

Context

Rehberg's hard-court set sample covers six matches from 4 to 27 October 2026.
He averaged 3.5 games won against 5.8 lost in first sets, then 5.3 against 4.2 in second sets. That split makes the opening set a real contest despite his stronger overall record, while a second set gives him a clear platform if the match gets there. Kozlov's own first-set record is only 4-7 on hard, so the contrast is a tendency rather than a guarantee.
- Rehberg won one of six first sets on hard in the 4-27 October 2026 sample.
- He won five of six second sets in the same sample.
- His first-set games averaged 3.5 won and 5.8 lost; second-set games averaged 5.3 won and 4.2 lost.
Kozlov's most recent listed result is from 1 October 2026.
The record gives no reason for the gap, so this is a scheduling fact rather than evidence of injury or reduced fitness. It does add uncertainty to Kozlov's current form because his most recent completed match is well before the second round. The result itself was a three-set loss in which he won the second set 6-3.
- Kozlov's latest listed match was a 2-6 6-3 3-6 loss to Mitchell Krueger on 1 October 2026.
- The gap to the 29 October second round is 28 days.
- No reason for the absence is given in the record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Rehberg has the better recent record and more match sharpness, while Kozlov has struggled badly on hard.
- Rehberg is 10-5 overall and 4-2 on hard in the last 15; Kozlov is 5-9 overall and 3-8 on hard.
- Rehberg won his latest match 6-3 6-3 on 27 October; Kozlov last played on 1 October and lost.
- Rehberg's current hard game win rate is 50.0%, so the record edge is not a wide gap.
- Kozlov has lost seven of 11 hard matches in the set sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard match length sits right on the line, with Rehberg's matches generally longer.
- Rehberg's hard matches average 26.0 total games; Kozlov's average 24.2.
- Rehberg has four of six hard matches over 25.5 games.
- Kozlov's recent six include three matches over 25.5 games.
- The combined hard sample averages about 25.1 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance57%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Rehberg has been much stronger in second sets, often after dropping the opener.
- Rehberg won five of six second sets on hard.
- Rehberg's set2 games average 5.3 won and 4.2 lost.
- Kozlov won five of 11 second sets on hard.
- Rehberg's set2 scorelines include 6-3, 6-4 and 7-6 wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have regularly gone the distance on hard, with Kozlov especially prone to three-set matches.
- Rehberg's six hard matches averaged 2.67 sets; Kozlov's 11 averaged 2.64.
- Rehberg went to a third set in four of six hard matches.
- Kozlov went to a third set in seven of 11 hard matches.
- Kozlov's most common scoreline is a 1-2 loss, five times.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Rehberg has repeatedly given away the opening set on hard, and Kozlov has been the more competitive starter.
- Rehberg won only one of six first sets on hard.
- Rehberg's set1 games average 3.5 won and 5.8 lost.
- Kozlov won four of 11 first sets and averaged 4.5 games won in set1.
- Kozlov's recent first sets include a 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3 win.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostStefan KozlovEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard matches have avoided a tiebreak.
- Rehberg had no tiebreak in four of six hard matches.
- Kozlov had no tiebreak in nine of 11 hard matches.
- The combined hard sample is four tiebreak matches in 17.
- Neither player's set averages point to frequent 7-6 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Max Hans Rehberg: 4/6 recent winner projections matched

4 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Max Hans Rehberg matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Max Hans Rehberg6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#290Daniel Elahi Galan2-1#339Max Hans Rehberg

BetBugsMax Hans Rehberg to win·58%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#290Daniel Elahi Galan2-1#339Max Hans Rehberg

Max Hans Rehberg to win

58%probability

Daniel Elahi Galan won

Missed

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#339Max Hans Rehberg2-0#142Stefano Travaglia

BetBugsMax Hans Rehberg to win·55%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#339Max Hans Rehberg2-0#142Stefano Travaglia

Max Hans Rehberg to win

55%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#409Max Hans Rehberg1-2#297Marc Andrea Huesler

BetBugsMax Hans Rehberg to win·55%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#409Max Hans Rehberg1-2#297Marc Andrea Huesler

Max Hans Rehberg to win

55%probability

Marc Andrea Huesler won

Missed

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#409Max Hans Rehberg2-1#373Anton Matusevich

BetBugsMax Hans Rehberg to win·55%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#409Max Hans Rehberg2-1#373Anton Matusevich

Max Hans Rehberg to win

55%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#549Alexander Donski0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

BetBugsMax Hans Rehberg to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#549Alexander Donski0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

Max Hans Rehberg to win

62%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Matched

Previous match context available

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#208Braden Shick

6-2 6-1#331Mees Rottgering

6-1 6-7(1) 7-6(3)#271Hynek Barton

1-6 6-4 7-5#209Edas Butvilas

5-7 6-3 6-3#270Mili Poljicak

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#841Daniel Cukierman

6-0 6-1#364Andrey Chepelev

6-3 6-2#399Eric Vanshelboim

3-6 6-4 6-0#529Alexander Weis

6-3 6-2#843Giannicola Misasi

6-4 6-4#893Niccolo Catini

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#236Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 6-4#198Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#286Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#222Kimmer Coppejans

Stefan Kozlov

6W 9L

4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#268Murphy Cassone

6-2 3-6 6-3#349Mitchell Krueger

6-3 6-2#551James Kent Trotter

6-4 6-2#218Colton Smith

6-3 2-6 7-6(10)#159Darwin Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-1#213Harry Wendelken

6-3 5-7 6-2#336Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-1#77Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#504Alan Magadan

6-4 6-4#684Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-1 6-2#738Leo Vithoontien

6-3 3-6 6-4#280Yi Zhou

3-6 6-3 6-2#87Jacob Fearnley

6-4 2-6 6-4#106Yibing Wu

6-4 6-2#458Garrett Johns

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMax Hans RehbergRehberg

Last 15

6–0

9 core stats · 3 even

Stefan KozlovKozlovSK

Max Hans Rehberg carries the stronger recent form — Stefan Kozlov's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In64.6%+2.1pp62.5%

1st Serve Won70.0%+8.0pp62.0%

2nd Serve Won49.7%—50.1%

Aces / Match3.5+1.42.1

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.8%—40.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted55.3%+10.9pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+7.5pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.0%+2.9pp49.1%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

64.6%1st Serve In+2.1pp62.5%

70.0%1st Serve Won+8.0pp62.0%

49.7%2nd Serve Won—50.1%

3.5Aces / Match+1.42.1

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.8%Return Pts Won—40.8%

Pressure · 2–0

55.3%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp44.4%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

52.0%Total Pts Won+2.9pp49.1%

Max Hans Rehberg

Stefan Kozlov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Max Hans Rehberg

Stefan Kozlov

Max Hans Rehberg 2-1

Max Hans Rehberg

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Max Hans Rehberg

Stefan Kozlov

Stat Battle